Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Printable Version +- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com) +-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html) +--- Forum: SunBeltbbs (/forum-317.html) +---- Forum: Sun Belt East Team Talk (/forum-289.html) +----- Forum: James Madison (/forum-685.html) +----- Thread: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 (/thread-759231.html) |
Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - NH/JMU Saxkow - 11-22-2015 04:40 AM From an Overall Perspective... Well, it looks like 7 wins will still be the important number again this year. Looking at the lists, there are (barely) enough solid teams to receive At Large bids without resorting to going into the pool of 6-win teams. I could see that situation being different in future years, though. The race for the Seeds will be very tough. There are probably around 10 teams that could make good claims towards the 8 Seeds, so there will be some angry people today when everything is announced. (Hopefully, we will not be among the angry.) From a JMU Perspective... Okay. The Dukes got the win that they needed. Standing at 9-2 with a I-A win, no bad losses, and a share of the CAA title, JMU should receive one of the Seeds. Hopefully, the Dukes will work on...well, everything. Offense...defense....they both need work if we hope to beat the tougher competition that we'll see in the playoffs. By the Numbers (107 total teams)... Teams Alive for any Playoff spot: 10/18 – 98 10/25 – N/A 11/1 – 66 11/8 – 48 11/15 – 36; 48 including 6-win teams 11/22 – 30; 43 including 6-win teams Teams Alive for an At-Large spot: 10/18 – 71 10/25 – N/A 11/1 – 48 11/8 – 40 11/15 – 29; 41 including 6-win teams 11/22 – 20; 33 including 6-win teams Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference): 10/18 – 1 10/25 – N/A 11/1 – 8 11/8 – 11 11/15 – 13 11/22 – 20 Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE. Clinched Conference Titles Big Sky – Southern Utah Big South – Charleston Southern CAA – Richmond MVC – NDSU NEC – Duquesne OVC – Jacksonville State Patriot – Colgate Pioneer – Dayton SoCon – Chattanooga Southland – McNeese State CAA (5 Teams Alive) Richmond – 8 wins – clinched AQ JMU – 9 wins W&M – 8 wins Towson – 7 wins UNH – 7 wins Big Sky (4 Teams Alive) Southern Utah – 7 wins – clinched AQ Portland State – 8 wins Montana – 7 wins North Dakota – 7 wins Big South (2 Teams Alive) Charleston Southern – 8 wins – clinched AQ Coastal Carolina – 9 wins MEAC (3 Teams Alive – No AQ) NC A&T – 8 wins - “bowl” game Bethune-Cookman – 8 wins SC State – 7 wins NC Central – 7 wins MVC (4 Teams Alive) NDSU – 9 wins – clinched AQ Illinois State – 9 wins SDSU – 8 wins No. Iowa – 7 wins NEC (1 Teams Alive) Duquesne – 6 wins – clinched AQ OVC (2 Teams Alive) Jacksonville State – 10 wins – clinched AQ E. Illinois – 7 wins Patriot League (2 Teams Alive) Colgate – 7 wins – clinched AQ Fordham – 9 wins Pioneer League (2 Teams Alive) Dayton – 10 wins – clinched AQ San Diego – 7 wins SoCon (2 Teams Alive) Chatty – 7 wins – clinched AQ Citadel – 8 wins Southland (3 Teams Alive) McNeese State – 9 wins – clinched AQ Central Ark. – 7 wins Sam Houston State – 7 wins Finished with 9 wins (without winning AQ): JMU Coastal Carolina Illinois State Fordham Finished with 8 wins (without winning AQ): W&M Portland State Bethune-Cookman SDSU Citadel Finished with 7 wins (without winning AQ): UNH Towson Montana North Dakota NC Central SC State No. Iowa E. Illinois San Diego Central Arkansas Sam Houston State Finished with 6 wins (without winning AQ): Villanova EWU Northern Arizona Weber State Liberty StFU W. Illinois EKU Tenn.-Martin Holy Cross Lehigh Morehead State W. Carolina Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs Savannah State (too dumb for postseason) Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason) Gardner-Webb (too dumb for postseason) Abilene Christian (transition to D1) Incarnate Word (transition to D1) Jacksonville (caught cheating by the Pioneer) Stony Brook Albany URI Maine Delaware Elon Northern Colorado Cal Poly Idaho State UC Davis Sac State Montana State Monmouth Presbyterian Kennesaw State ETSU Delaware State Howard Morgan State Norfolk State Hampton Missouri State Indiana State So. Illinois Youngstown State South Dakota Robert Morris Sacred Heart Wagner Cent. Conn. State Bryant Tenn. State Tenn. Tech Murray State Austin Peay SE Missouri State Lafayette Bucknell Georgetown Valparaiso Davidson Stetson Butler Campbell Drake Marist Samford Wofford VMI Furman Mercer Houston Baptist NW State Nichols State SE Louisiana Lamar Stephen F. Austin Perfection (no losses of any type) McNeese State The Bottom (an 0-fer season) Delaware State Austin Peay Conference Analysis CAA – With the regular season over, the CAA now stands as the only conference with five teams with 7 or more wins. Richmond, W&M, and JMU finish at the top of the standings with 6-2. The first tie-breaker to determine the AQ is the head-to-head-to-head record between all three schools. JMU lost to both Richmond and W&M, so they are eliminated. Since Richmond beat W&M, the Ticks get the AQ. Both JMU and W&M will get At Large bids, so now we need to see who gets a Seed. It is very likely two of the three teams will, but there are arguments for and against each team. Sitting on the bubble with 7 wins are UNH and Towson. Of the two, UNH probably has the edge – the Committee knows that most of UNH's losses came when their QB was injured. Since that QB has come back, they started winning again – including a win over Richmond. Towson also still has a decent shot. Their best win was against Villanova, but they did lose to Elon. If they get in, it will be as one of the final teams. Big Sky – Fortunately, SUU did their part and won the AQ outright by beating NAU (their best win). Sitting solidly in 2nd place is Portland State – the Big Sky's best chance for a Seed. Their two I-A wins, plus some good wins over the top teams in the conference, should get them their Seed. Montana was able to get to 7 wins (some of them very good), so they should get an At Large. North Dakota was the only other team to make it to the 7-win mark. It will be tough for them to get a bid – the loss to Idaho State could really hurt them. Sitting with only 6 wins is EWU. I think they will be left out – that 41 point loss to Montana two weeks ago is just too much to overcome. Big South – Coastal and Charleston Southern both entered the week with the playoff spots basically secured – the only question was if they could secure Seeds. Well, they both lost. Now, while Charleston's loss was not surprising (to Alabama), Coastal's loss to Liberty likely cost them a Seed. (Their best win is over Western Illinois.) There is a good chance that the Big Sky will be left out of the Seed picture entirely. MEAC – The MEAC gave up their AQ to participate in a bowl versus the SWAC on ESPN, so the 1st place team will not make the playoffs. Could a 2nd place team be offered an At Large? I hope not. I do not see either Bethune-Cookman or NC Central as deserving of an At Large. MVC – With NDSU's win, they took the AQ. Tied for first is Illinois State who will also easily receive a Seed. SDSU, however, lost their chance for three MVC Seeds. Their loss to Western Illinois came at the wrong time. Unfortunately for them, they might find themselves facing a Big Sky team in the 1st round. NEC – Duquesne won the AQ by beating StFU. StFU finished with 6 wins – they're done. The NEC is a one-bid league, so everything here is pretty straight-forward. OVC – Jacksonville State won again to finish 10-1 (10-0 in I-AA) and they should get the #1 Seed. That being said, I don't think they are nearly as scary to opponents as NDSU was the last few years. It will be very interesting to see if they can get to the championship. The EKU/EIU game was basically a playoff game – the winner would reach 7 wins and likely an At Large bid, while the loser's season is likely over. EIU won. EKU now finishes in 4th place in the OVC (behind Tennessee-Martin) with no impressive wins. Patriot – Colgate had already secured the AQ and Fordham finished their season last week, so all eyes were elsewhere this week. Fordham is hoping for a Seed, but I think they will be disappointed. A win over Army is great, but losing to Colgate when it counts is just not Seed-worthy. Pioneer – Dayton already took the AQ, but now they entered the week trying to see if they could steal a Seed by going undefeated. With their loss to Drake, that dream is gone. I am not sure who they will play in the first round, but they have already played (and beat) Duquesne, so it won't be them. SoCon – Who will get a Seed from the SoCon? The Citadel pulled off the SEC upset this week, which gives them a great argument. But Chatty beat the Citadel just last week. However, I think Chatty's loss to Mercer 2 weeks ago puts them just behind the Citadel now. But it could be a coin flip – or they even could both be playing next weekend. Southland – McNeese squeaked out a win to stay undefeated for the season (with one cancellation). Meanwhile, Sam Houston crushed Central Arkansas to secure an At Large. Central Arkansas now has to sweat out the selection show. None of their wins are impressive, so it will be very close. My Playoff Predictions: Seeds (in no particular order) Jacksonville State NDSU Illinois State Richmond JMU Citadel McNeese State Portland State First Round Matchups Southern Utah Sam Houston State UNH Fordham Colgate Dayton Duquesne Chattanooga Charleston Southern W&M Coastal Carolina E. Illinois Portland State SDSU Montana No. Iowa Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Potomac - 11-22-2015 05:52 AM Thanks for all the great work as always nh/JMU saksow! I actually like your bracket and think it's one of the better ones I've seen. Those 8 seeds are all deserving. I just don't see how charleston southern deserves a seed but many put them in. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - NewTimes - 11-22-2015 07:02 AM I echo Potomac with a thoughtful post. Nice job. I'm officially giving you one atta boy and a rep point for the work. Thanks Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Potomac - 11-22-2015 07:08 AM I feel it's also worth noting that mcneese state is undefeated but you have to put a huge asterisk next to that record. Their season opening game against lsu was cancelled due to thunderstorms and that was very likely to be a loss. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - NH/JMU Saxkow - 11-22-2015 10:45 AM I just noticed that I have Portland State receiving both a Seed and an At Large - that obviously wouldn't work! I think that opens the door for either Towson or Central Arkansas. (I still think the Committee will stay away from 6-win teams like Western Illinois.) In this case: Southern Utah Sam Houston State UNH Fordham Colgate Dayton Duquesne Chattanooga Charleston Southern W&M Coastal Carolina Towson E. Illinois SDSU Montana No. Iowa This actually makes the travel part better in the first round by pairing Towson with Coastal. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Tribal - 11-22-2015 10:55 AM http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/The-Final-Bracket.png RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Yesolitis - 11-22-2015 11:05 AM Thanks for dropping that bomb Tribal smh RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - CISDuke2014 - 11-22-2015 11:06 AM (11-22-2015 10:55 AM)Tribal Wrote: http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/The-Final-Bracket.png I am hoping that bracket is a joke. SDSU doesn't get a seed after yesterday and NDSU as the 2? Sorry they fell too much this year to be a #2. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - NH/JMU Saxkow - 11-22-2015 11:07 AM (11-22-2015 10:55 AM)Tribal Wrote: http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/The-Final-Bracket.pngColgate-UNH already played this year, so they will not be paired up. I can't see B-C getting in - way too many stronger teams ahead of them. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Yesolitis - 11-22-2015 11:07 AM Looks legit RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMUDuke25 - 11-22-2015 11:10 AM 5 seed. McNeese in Quarters if we all advance RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - CISDuke2014 - 11-22-2015 11:10 AM (11-22-2015 10:55 AM)Tribal Wrote: http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/The-Final-Bracket.png FAKE BRACKET Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMU2004 - 11-22-2015 11:10 AM Yes! RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - CISDuke2014 - 11-22-2015 11:11 AM DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKES! Sorry the keys got stuck ;-) Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMU2004 - 11-22-2015 11:11 AM McNeese is exactly who I would want. Jay walker never misses a chance to be a douche. No MEAC teams to pump up now, huh Jay RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - Yesolitis - 11-22-2015 11:12 AM Phew! RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMUDuke25 - 11-22-2015 11:14 AM Coastal vs Citadel tough game Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMU2004 - 11-22-2015 11:18 AM We'll host UNH at 1pm on 12/5 RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - n2theblue72 - 11-22-2015 11:28 AM Congrats on your 5 seed. I'll be pulling for you to improve your resume so you can secure a FBS invite. Good luck. RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/22/15 - JMUDuke25 - 11-22-2015 11:29 AM W&M plays Richmond again if they win. That's garbage. Put them in different brackets. |