(11-07-2015 07:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well that's that.

Just a second there professor.

- Alabama has: at Miss St and at Auburn for SEC games left
- LSU has: vs Ark, at Miss, and vs A&M for SEC games left
- Miss has: vs LSU, at Miss St
- Miss St has: Alabama, at Ark, Miss

Record (conf):
Alabama 8-1 (5-1)
LSU 7-1 (4-1) **should be 8-1 overall, they would've beat McNeese week 1**
Miss 7-3 (4-2)
Miss St 7-2 (3-2)


This thing might not be over, by a long shot.

LSU's problem was QB play. They don't have a QB, they have a guy that is good at handing the ball off to Fournette. Dak Prescott is a QB. That should be a good game.

(11-08-2015 09:55 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-07-2015 07:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Well that's that.

Just a second there professor.

- Alabama has: at Miss St and at Auburn for SEC games left
- LSU has: vs Ark, at Miss, and vs A&M for SEC games left
- Miss has: vs LSU, at Miss St
- Miss St has: Alabama, at Ark, Miss

Record (conf):
Alabama 8-1 (5-1)
LSU 7-1 (4-1) **should be 8-1 overall, they would've beat McNeese week 1**
Miss 7-3 (4-2)
Miss St 7-2 (3-2)


This thing might not be over, by a long shot.

Arkansas will be the remaining stumbling block for LSU. The Hogs have the line size to create the problems for LSU that Bama created.

Auburn is getting healthy again and we absolutely hate Alabama. That said the favorite generally wins this game. Alabama will do to Mississippi State what they did to LSU. Prescott is an average passer and a great runner. Advantage Alabama.

Ole Miss will lose again. They have defensive issues once you get past their D-line.

Florida must beat Florida State to be in the conversation but at least the game is in Gainesville. I think the Tennessee loss sapped any remaining desire in South Carolina.

Would it be worse for the SEC to have Florida win the CCG, after just losing to Florida St -or- to have a 2-loss team from the West win the CCG?

(11-08-2015 11:05 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Would it be worse for the SEC to have Florida win the CCG, after just losing to Florida St -or- to have a 2-loss team from the West win the CCG?

It doesn't matter. Florida probably wouldn't get enough credit for beating a two loss West Division school even if they beat Florida State. But I have to think that a one loss West team that beats a two loss Florida will find a way in anyway, especially if it is Alabama. But, a two loss Florida winning the CCG or a two loss West school winning it yields the same result, missing the CFP.

(11-08-2015 11:05 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Would it be worse for the SEC to have Florida win the CCG, after just losing to Florida St -or- to have a 2-loss team from the West win the CCG?

A loss to an ACC team would be worse. Would be hard to justify putting the SEC champ in if they just lost to an ACC also-ran. So it would be better for the SEC if a two-loss champ came from the West.

One thing about that FSU/Florida game- it's a must win for FSU to get in an access bowl. A loss, and the ACC will only have 1 team in the NY 6 bowl games. Not what they needed this year at all.

(11-08-2015 11:51 AM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing about that FSU/Florida game- it's a must win for FSU to get in an access bowl.

Even if FSU beats Florida, they probably still don't get into an Access Bowl. But that's a rivalry game so they will be motivated anyway.

(11-08-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 11:05 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Would it be worse for the SEC to have Florida win the CCG, after just losing to Florida St -or- to have a 2-loss team from the West win the CCG?

A loss to an ACC team would be worse. Would be hard to justify putting the SEC champ in if they just lost to an ACC also-ran. So it would be better for the SEC if a two-loss champ came from the West.

Sorry Quo but there will be too many brand schools with just 1 loss this year for the SEC to land a spot with a two loss champion.

FSU at 10-2 likely gets them in the top 11. Right now, there's only 21 P5 teams with 2 or fewer losses. That's it. Think there's a really good shot that they get in if they can win out.

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win. I don't think a two loss SEC champ, for example, would get that look (unless they lost in similar fashion) over a one loss champion in the same vein. Not saying they "would," just that they "could" be in consideration. A loss is a loss, but I think when a team loses on a last second fluke play, like we've seen the past few weeks... you can't equate it as a win for sure, but I think it almost puts an asterisk next to the loss, puts them at the top of the list of those with the same number of losses.

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win. I don't think a two loss SEC champ, for example, would get that look (unless they lost in similar fashion) over a one loss champion in the same vein. Not saying they "would," just that they "could" be in consideration. A loss is a loss, but I think when a team loses on a last second fluke play, like we've seen the past few weeks... you can't equate it as a win for sure, but I think it almost puts an asterisk next to the loss, puts them at the top of the list of those with the same number of losses.

Follow up question to that then- does that game hurt Michigan St in the same vein? Does MSU have an asterisk to that win?

(11-08-2015 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win. I don't think a two loss SEC champ, for example, would get that look (unless they lost in similar fashion) over a one loss champion in the same vein. Not saying they "would," just that they "could" be in consideration. A loss is a loss, but I think when a team loses on a last second fluke play, like we've seen the past few weeks... you can't equate it as a win for sure, but I think it almost puts an asterisk next to the loss, puts them at the top of the list of those with the same number of losses.

Follow up question to that then- does that game hurt Michigan St in the same vein? Does MSU have an asterisk to that win?

You can't punish a team for winning. (I say that in the sense outside the context of margin of victory)

(11-08-2015 12:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 11:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 11:05 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Would it be worse for the SEC to have Florida win the CCG, after just losing to Florida St -or- to have a 2-loss team from the West win the CCG?

A loss to an ACC team would be worse. Would be hard to justify putting the SEC champ in if they just lost to an ACC also-ran. So it would be better for the SEC if a two-loss champ came from the West.

Sorry Quo but there will be too many brand schools with just 1 loss this year for the SEC to land a spot with a two loss champion.

I agree, but the question was what situation would be better. A Florida with an FSU loss would have a 2% chance, a two-loss SEC Wester would be at about 25%.

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win.

I don't think there's much evidence that Michigan is getting any kind of credit for that MSU loss than if they'd lost it in a more mundane way. Nobody is regarding it as a "half-a-loss" or somesuch. They are sitting down there at #17, exactly where we'd think they'd be had they lost 28-21 with no crazy ending.

If anything, I bet losing in that kind of way actually is viewed more ignominiously than how, e.g., Alabama lost to Ole Miss. It has a choke-factor to it.

What Michigan has going for it compared to any other 2-loss teams that develop is that they've already absorbed their 2nd loss and thus had the chance to rebound from it somewhat, whereas anyone who loses a second time from here on out will have to absorb the shock of that and would likely fall behind them just because of the timing of it. And, their two losses are to two highly-ranked teams so they are otherwise respectable.

But the 'special' way they lost that MSU game won't help them at all.

(11-08-2015 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win. I don't think a two loss SEC champ, for example, would get that look (unless they lost in similar fashion) over a one loss champion in the same vein. Not saying they "would," just that they "could" be in consideration. A loss is a loss, but I think when a team loses on a last second fluke play, like we've seen the past few weeks... you can't equate it as a win for sure, but I think it almost puts an asterisk next to the loss, puts them at the top of the list of those with the same number of losses.

Follow up question to that then- does that game hurt Michigan St in the same vein? Does MSU have an asterisk to that win?

If you are asking me, I would heavily consider that as compared to other teams with the same number of losses. Again it is not a loss, but I would consider it. But I cannot speak for the committee.

(11-08-2015 01:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win.

I don't think there's much evidence that Michigan is getting any kind of credit for that MSU loss than if they'd lost it in a more mundane way. Nobody is regarding it as a "half-a-loss" or somesuch. They are sitting down there at #17, exactly where we'd think they'd be had they lost 28-21 with no crazy ending. .

You mean other than the fact that they are the highest rated 2 loss team in the CFP ranking, and ahead of two one loss P5 teams? I think that is precisely the evidence I was talking about.

(11-08-2015 02:06 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win.

I don't think there's much evidence that Michigan is getting any kind of credit for that MSU loss than if they'd lost it in a more mundane way. Nobody is regarding it as a "half-a-loss" or somesuch. They are sitting down there at #17, exactly where we'd think they'd be had they lost 28-21 with no crazy ending. .

You mean other than the fact that they are the highest rated 2 loss team in the CFP ranking, and ahead of two one loss P5 teams? I think that is precisely the evidence I was talking about.

Pretty thin 'evidence'. Whoever those two one-loss P5 teams are, nobody is impressed with them, because they aren't even in the CFP top 25, and are thus also behind a one-loss G5 team and a few other two-loss P5 teams, not just Michigan.

As for Michigan being the highest-ranked two loss team, well, somebody has to be, and just on conventional grounds, as of last week they probably did have the two best losses.

There just isn't much evidence that anyone is treating that loss to MSU as anything special, like a half-a-win. It's just being treated like what it was, a loss, albeit close and to a good opponent.

(11-08-2015 04:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 02:06 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 12:35 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(11-08-2015 01:34 AM)stever20 Wrote:  And don't think 2 loss Michigan team has any shot at all.

Assuming we don't have epic collapses down the stretch, I think there will be enough 0 and/or 1 loss teams that no two loss team will get it. However I think the way in which Michigan lost their second game, if they were to be Big Ten champ, puts them at the top of the two loss teams, and could allow them consideration over a one loss team with a weak schedule, lackluster performances, or no CCG win.

I don't think there's much evidence that Michigan is getting any kind of credit for that MSU loss than if they'd lost it in a more mundane way. Nobody is regarding it as a "half-a-loss" or somesuch. They are sitting down there at #17, exactly where we'd think they'd be had they lost 28-21 with no crazy ending. .

You mean other than the fact that they are the highest rated 2 loss team in the CFP ranking, and ahead of two one loss P5 teams? I think that is precisely the evidence I was talking about.

Pretty thin 'evidence'. Whoever those two one-loss P5 teams are, nobody is impressed with them, because they aren't even in the CFP top 25, and are thus also behind a one-loss G5 team and a few other two-loss P5 teams, not just Michigan.

As for Michigan being the highest-ranked two loss team, well, somebody has to be, and just on conventional grounds, as of last week they probably did have the two best losses.

There just isn't much evidence that anyone is treating that loss to MSU as anything special, like a half-a-win. It's just being treated like what it was, a loss, albeit close and to a good opponent.

You can call it "thin" if you want, even though it precisely matches what I said, and I mean to a "T," that the nature of their loss would make them the top 2 loss team, and in the conversation over a couple of 1 loss team with shoddy resumes, but there is zero evidence to disprove the claim. Actually the "evidence." much like a good milkshake, gets thicket the longer it sits.

Okay, yeah I heard it. That was a "thin" metaphor for sure.

Still a lot of games left and Alabama, LSU and Florida could all lose another game. Could see an Ole Miss or Miss. State as champ.
Big 12 could wind up with a three way tie for 1st. Wisconsin, Mich State, Ohio State and Iowa could lose.
Utah and Stanford could lose another game.
Clemson could lose 2 more games.
Houston could slide in unbeaten when they beat Temple, Memphis and Navy to be the last undefeated team left.