(11-06-2015 08:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:32 PM)PGEMF Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:17 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 12:26 PM)Tigermaniac Wrote:  If Ole Miss wins out and is the SEC Champ and Bama gets in over them. With the head to head @ BAMA. This Playoff committee will be a complete joke. If Memphis wins out and that would include wins over 3 more ranked teams with that head to head against Ole Miss and Ole Miss gets in and Memphis doesn't that would be a complete joke.

The best bet is if the Committee doesn't want to put a DESERVING Memphis team in under that scenario, then they should just leave the SEC out of it. Period. THERE is no way to justify putting any SEC team in if it played out like that.

You also, couldn't justify putting in a 2 loss PAC team in when comparing to Memphis or the SEC Champ in that scenario. Please explain to me how you would... You can't, it would be a disgrace and completely pathetic...

Notre Dame would also have 2 losses in that PERFECT scenario.

So in this HIGHLY unlikely scenario.

It would probably be leaving the SEC out all together.

1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big 12
4. Memphis

or leave the SEC, PAC and Memphis out all together.

1. ACC
2. B1G
3. Big 12
4. Some team they pull out of their ass, to try and justify not having Memphis in the top 4. Won't be a 2 loss Notre Dame. Who could it be?

Bottom line is if things play out the way that scenario describes, Memphis IS in. Compare Schedules, whatever metric you would want to use. Memphis would be in the top 4. Everyone thinks it's just simple to say they won't let a G5 in. It doesn't work that way... This is a Playoff, it is open to all 128 FBS teams... At the end of the day, when you are comparing everything Memphis in the BEST case scenario would have 5 Top 25 wins. Better than almost ANYONE in front of them. 8 wins against Bowl teams. Better than almost ANYONE in front of them. Would have beaten the MAC and SEC CHAMPS.

It's not probable any of this happens anyway, but if it does don't be surprised to see a top 4 Memphis.

Come on, what arguments could ANYONE possibly spit out to argue this? I can't wait to hear them.. I am expecting a lot of opinion oriented bs, and a bunch of non factual bs. Please prove me wrong....

If Memphis, Alabama and Ole Miss win out, it is likely that Alabama would be the one to get into the playoffs. Alabama would ace out Ole Miss because they have a better record.

Alabama would get in over Memphis because they will have played a tougher schedule. You seem to think games against Temple, Houston, and Navy are going to register as big games. I don't think the final SOS rankings will show that.

Wrong. Alabama is out if they are not the conference champs. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas after their lost to Ole Miss. They are not the BEST team right now. They are only there because of their namesake. Look what happened to them last year when they were in the same mentioned in the 4 playoff spots in the polls? They lost big time in the semi. It means that Alabama was overrated last year like Florida State was as well. Same thing will happen this year since Alabama does not belong there.

I didn't realize you were on the committee.

What happened last year is completely independent of this year. After 20 years, you can say the committee will take a team if they meet X, Y, and Z criteria. It's impossible to look at this year and say Bama won't make it because they're not a conference champ and lost last year.

The committee set a strong precedent last year. conference championships matter. It is a reasonable assumption they will do the same this year.

How? Explain how they did that?

(11-06-2015 05:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-05-2015 09:04 AM)andy98 Wrote:  This probably would never happen, but what if.....
-Clemson goes undefeated.
-Ohio State goes undefeated.
-Ole Miss wins the SEC with 2 losses to Memphis and Florida.
-Memphis goes undefeated including a win over SEC champ Ole Miss.
-Alabama finishes with 1 loss to Ole Miss.
-Stanford wins the Pac Twelve with 1 loss to Northwestern.
-Oklahoma wins the Big Twelve with 1 loss to Texas.
-Baylor finishes with 1 loss to Oklahoma.

Other than Clemson and Ohio State, who would be the other 2 teams that would make the playoff?

Also pretty interesting if Notre Dame wins that game vs. Stanford.

The Stanford/Notre Dame game the last week of the season will essentially be a play-in game for the CFP if both continue to win until then. If ND wins, it would be impossible for the Committee to give Stanford a spot in the CFP as the PAC 12 Champ over ND. Likewise, a Stanford win knocks ND out (2 losses) and elevates Stanford's status as PAC 12 Champ compared to other 1 loss conference champs. And I think the result is the same even if Utah is the Pac 12 champ instead of Stanford.

Barring some unforeseen upsets the B1G 10 Champ (probably Ohio State) will be undefeated and get a spot. That leaves the ACC, Big 12 and SEC, plus the winner of the Memphis/Houston game, competing for the last 2 slots. With Baylor losing its QB, I bet the Big 12 won't have an undefeated champ and that means getting left out again unless the SEC completely stumbles and presents a 2 loss champ. Maybe in that situation Memphis/Houston get a slot.

(11-06-2015 07:17 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Wrong. Alabama is out if they are not the conference champs. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas after their lost to Ole Miss. They are not the BEST team right now. They are only there because of their namesake. Look what happened to them last year when they were in the same mentioned in the 4 playoff spots in the polls? They lost big time in the semi. It means that Alabama was overrated last year like Florida State was as well. Same thing will happen this year since Alabama does not belong there.

This is incorrect on two levels.

First, last year, Alabama lost to national champ Ohio State 42-35. They led at halftime. Ohio State outplayed them and deserved to win, but it was not a blowout. In fact, Alabama played Ohio State much closer than Oregon did, which suggests that Alabama was the #2 team in the country at the end of the season.

Second, nobody is saying Alabama is the best team right now. But the CFP committee has them at #4, well ahead of Ole Miss and Memphis, and they still have games with #2 LSU and #20 MS-State ahead.

It is simply unrealistic to think that if Alabama wins out, that either Ole Miss or Memphis will pass them in the CFP rankings.

The SEC is likely out if this scenario came to pass. Too many unbeaten or one loss teams that could justify inclusion over Ole Miss, in spite of the Rebels SOS and avenging of one of their losses. In the Rebels' favor would be statements the committee has made regarding injuries. The Rebels had many players out against Florida and Memphis, including Laremy Tunsil and Tony Conner, and both will have returned by today's game. If they were dominating in winning these last games over Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State and Florida, there could be an argument for the Rebels, but I don't see it happening with so many other teams with solid claims that don't have two losses.

That said, if another scenario took place in which there is only one unbeaten and everyone else has at least one loss, the once beaten teams should be concerned that their body of work is more impressive than the Rebels'. With the injured and suspended players back for the CCG, the committee may look at the earlier loss to Florida as an aberration and give more weight to the list of teams they beat.

Who knows? I hope it turns out that way. I prefer the SEC, but I'd rather Ole Miss win the SEC title and miss the playoff than have some other SEC team in the playoff. But none of this will happen in a vacuum. The committee will weigh the schedules, but will pay at lot of attention to what they see with their own eyes. Teams that dominate down the stretch against good competition will likely get the strongest consideration for the playoff, while teams that lose or struggle late will have given justification to leave them out.

(11-06-2015 09:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 08:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:32 PM)PGEMF Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:17 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 06:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Memphis, Alabama and Ole Miss win out, it is likely that Alabama would be the one to get into the playoffs. Alabama would ace out Ole Miss because they have a better record.

Alabama would get in over Memphis because they will have played a tougher schedule. You seem to think games against Temple, Houston, and Navy are going to register as big games. I don't think the final SOS rankings will show that.

Wrong. Alabama is out if they are not the conference champs. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas after their lost to Ole Miss. They are not the BEST team right now. They are only there because of their namesake. Look what happened to them last year when they were in the same mentioned in the 4 playoff spots in the polls? They lost big time in the semi. It means that Alabama was overrated last year like Florida State was as well. Same thing will happen this year since Alabama does not belong there.

I didn't realize you were on the committee.

What happened last year is completely independent of this year. After 20 years, you can say the committee will take a team if they meet X, Y, and Z criteria. It's impossible to look at this year and say Bama won't make it because they're not a conference champ and lost last year.

The committee set a strong precedent last year. conference championships matter. It is a reasonable assumption they will do the same this year.

How? Explain how they did that?

They had TCU ranked #3 last year before the CCG week, #6 after the CCG week. in the eyes of the committee, Baylor was the conference champ, not TCU, and TCU got demoted below Baylor. The week before, conference championships were not considered in the rankings. The week after, they were.

(11-07-2015 06:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:17 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Wrong. Alabama is out if they are not the conference champs. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas after their lost to Ole Miss. They are not the BEST team right now. They are only there because of their namesake. Look what happened to them last year when they were in the same mentioned in the 4 playoff spots in the polls? They lost big time in the semi. It means that Alabama was overrated last year like Florida State was as well. Same thing will happen this year since Alabama does not belong there.

This is incorrect on two levels.

First, last year, Alabama lost to national champ Ohio State 42-35. They led at halftime. Ohio State outplayed them and deserved to win, but it was not a blowout. In fact, Alabama played Ohio State much closer than Oregon did, which suggests that Alabama was the #2 team in the country at the end of the season.

Second, nobody is saying Alabama is the best team right now. But the CFP committee has them at #4, well ahead of Ole Miss and Memphis, and they still have games with #2 LSU and #20 MS-State ahead.

It is simply unrealistic to think that if Alabama wins out, that either Ole Miss or Memphis will pass them in the CFP rankings.

If Bama doesn't win the SEC then they have to be out. It has nothing to do with the quality of the team. It's about maintaining the validity of the CFP and the Committee. Giving Bama access despite the fact they didn't win their conference for a second time means that CCG's don't matter. Making CCG's irrelevant means that the justification for leaving Baylor and/or TCU out last year also evaporates. The Committee essentially becomes the equivalent of the BCS computers at that point. Better to leave the SEC out should Ole Miss win the SEC than to destroy the CFP in only year two.

(11-07-2015 06:57 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  If Bama doesn't win the SEC then they have to be out. It has nothing to do with the quality of the team. It's about maintaining the validity of the CFP and the Committee. Giving Bama access despite the fact they didn't win their conference for a second time means that CCG's don't matter. Making CCG's irrelevant means that the justification for leaving Baylor and/or TCU out last year also evaporates. The Committee essentially becomes the equivalent of the BCS computers at that point. Better to leave the SEC out should Ole Miss win the SEC than to destroy the CFP in only year two.

This is wrong, conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, it does not make sense to say that the validity of the CFP/committee depends on only admitting conference champions. As has been explained, there is nothing necessarily irrational about a team X that is not their conference champ being ranked ahead of a team Y that is the champion of that same conference. This is because conferences ignore OOC results in determining their champion, which a national playoff committee must take into account. It is therefore silly to conclude that if Ole Miss wins the SEC over Alabama that Alabama should therefore be eliminated from national playoffs, when the determination of the SEC champion ignored critical information that a CFP committee must take into consideration.

Empirically, voting an Alabama that is not a conference champion into the playoffs would not mean that "CCG's don't matter". At most, what it would mean is that CCG's aren't the only thing that matter. And that's the way it should be: CCG's should matter, but they can't be the only thing that matters, meaning that other factors could very well override a CCG in determining playoff entrants.

since the committee took nothing but P5 champions last year, you have no examples to prove your point that the committee will ever take a 1-loss non-champion and leave out a 2-loss champion from the same conference.

although the day will probably come when the committee will take a non-champion over its champion, but not in the specific scenerio that was laid out. It would have to be a more extreme example like the committee takes a 12-1 non champion over its 8-5 champion. Something like that.

(11-07-2015 08:04 AM)goofus Wrote:  since the committee took nothing but P5 champions last year, you have no examples to prove your point that the committee will ever take a 1-loss non-champion and leave out a 2-loss champion from the same conference.

Last year, did the committee take any P5 champions over teams from their conferences that had fewer losses? If not, then you have no examples to prove your claim that the committee will ever take a 2-loss champion over a 1-loss non-champion from the same conference.

So neither of us have proof. I just have common sense on my side.

Yes, but you do have the example of Baylor jumping TCU in the rankings after the last week of last season. That shows the committee what the committee values in the end.

(11-06-2015 05:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 05:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  They have said the criteria is the "best" team, not the most "deserving." That means they have no real criteria. They'll do whatever they want.

The 8-team CFP with autobids for the top-6 conference champs (not necessarily P5, but likely) is the most likely to get BOTH the "best" and "most deserving".

When you drill down to the bedrock of the current CFP its designed for the P5 elites to make lots of money; and, as fun as it is for us Tiger fans to kick grand thoughts around its just pie in the sky. There ain't ever been no scenario whereby Lucy lets Charlie Brown kick the football.

(11-07-2015 07:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This is wrong, conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, it does not make sense to say that the validity of the CFP/committee depends on only admitting conference champions.

It's an opinion. Nothing more or less and with no greater validity than your own.

Quote: As has been explained, there is nothing necessarily irrational about a team X that is not their conference champ being ranked ahead of a team Y that is the champion of that same conference. This is because conferences ignore OOC results in determining their champion, which a national playoff committee must take into account. It is therefore silly to conclude that if Ole Miss wins the SEC over Alabama that Alabama should therefore be eliminated from national playoffs, when the determination of the SEC champion ignored critical information that a CFP committee must take into consideration.

Selecting Bama over Ole Miss in this hypothetical would mean that head to head and an extra victory against a ranked opponent are irrelevant. That is what got the BCS in trouble with the 2011 Championship Game. Your contention also gets into comparing whether Wisky is a better win that losing to the potential AAC undefeated champ Memphis. I don't think the committee wants any part of that kind of analysis.

Quote: Empirically, voting an Alabama that is not a conference champion into the playoffs would not mean that "CCG's don't matter". At most, what it would mean is that CCG's aren't the only thing that matter. And that's the way it should be: CCG's should matter, but they can't be the only thing that matters, meaning that other factors could very well override a CCG in determining playoff entrants.

By virtue of the decision last year regarding TCU and Baylor, the Committee implicitly stated that Conference Champions are a heavily weighted criteria for getting into the top 4. If there were at large bids for the CFP then I'd have no problem with your position.

I think the cut will be at 1 loss - Ole Miss winning the SEC likely eliminates the SEC from the playoff entirely, especially if Notre Dame and Clemson win the rest of their games:

1. Clemson (13-0)
2. Big 10 Champion (13-0)
3. Big 12 Champion (12-0)
4. Notre Dame (11-1) or Stanford (12-1)

The big question might be whether an undefeated Big 10 champion moves up to #1 to prevent the Clemson-Notre Dame rematch.

I think Memphis would end between #5 and #7 in this scenario, depending on whether or not the Big 10 runner up has only one loss.

(11-07-2015 10:39 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  Selecting Bama over Ole Miss in this hypothetical would mean that head to head and an extra victory against a ranked opponent are irrelevant. That is what got the BCS in trouble with the 2011 Championship Game. Your contention also gets into comparing whether Wisky is a better win that losing to the potential AAC undefeated champ Memphis. I don't think the committee wants any part of that kind of analysis.

By virtue of the decision last year regarding TCU and Baylor, the Committee implicitly stated that Conference Champions are a heavily weighted criteria for getting into the top 4. If there were at large bids for the CFP then I'd have no problem with your position.

Selecting Alabama over Ole Miss wouldn't mean that head to head is irrelevant, it would just mean that other factors were more relevant, which is entirely fair. In just about every sport, H2H is a tie-breaker, invoked when teams have the same record. But Alabama would have a better record.

I think some misconstrue what happened with TCU and Baylor. TCU was demoted behind Ohio State because Ohio State beat #13 Wisconsin while TCU beat a cupcake opponent. That win over a ranked team gave OSU an SOS advantage over TCU.

Baylor also beat a ranked opponent, #9 Kansas State, and that's why they moved past TCU as well. But Baylor was previously behind Ohio State, so they didn't move up past the Buckeyes who also beat a ranked team.

IOW's, the movement of those teams within final CFP poll was consistent with what we would have expected had Ohio State versus Wisconsin been just an ordinary end of regular season game, rather than a "CCG".

(11-07-2015 06:56 AM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 09:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 08:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:32 PM)PGEMF Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:17 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Wrong. Alabama is out if they are not the conference champs. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas after their lost to Ole Miss. They are not the BEST team right now. They are only there because of their namesake. Look what happened to them last year when they were in the same mentioned in the 4 playoff spots in the polls? They lost big time in the semi. It means that Alabama was overrated last year like Florida State was as well. Same thing will happen this year since Alabama does not belong there.

I didn't realize you were on the committee.

What happened last year is completely independent of this year. After 20 years, you can say the committee will take a team if they meet X, Y, and Z criteria. It's impossible to look at this year and say Bama won't make it because they're not a conference champ and lost last year.

The committee set a strong precedent last year. conference championships matter. It is a reasonable assumption they will do the same this year.

How? Explain how they did that?

They had TCU ranked #3 last year before the CCG week, #6 after the CCG week. in the eyes of the committee, Baylor was the conference champ, not TCU, and TCU got demoted below Baylor. The week before, conference championships were not considered in the rankings. The week after, they were.

But Baylor also got a quality win over KSU that last weekend. FSU, Ohio St. and Baylor all got quality wins. TCU had a blowout over Iowa St. So its hard to say what they valued-the extra quality win or the conference championship.

(11-07-2015 12:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-07-2015 06:56 AM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 09:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 08:22 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(11-06-2015 07:32 PM)PGEMF Wrote:  I didn't realize you were on the committee.

What happened last year is completely independent of this year. After 20 years, you can say the committee will take a team if they meet X, Y, and Z criteria. It's impossible to look at this year and say Bama won't make it because they're not a conference champ and lost last year.

The committee set a strong precedent last year. conference championships matter. It is a reasonable assumption they will do the same this year.

How? Explain how they did that?

They had TCU ranked #3 last year before the CCG week, #6 after the CCG week. in the eyes of the committee, Baylor was the conference champ, not TCU, and TCU got demoted below Baylor. The week before, conference championships were not considered in the rankings. The week after, they were.

But Baylor also got a quality win over KSU that last weekend. FSU, Ohio St. and Baylor all got quality wins. TCU had a blowout over Iowa St. So its hard to say what they valued-the extra quality win or the conference championship.

Exactly. But so many around here think they KNOW it was the Holy CCG.

So... about TCU losing big to OK State... or Clemson/FSU tied...

TCU's not undefeated anymore. Down 42-16 midway 3rd Q.

ACC could be eliminated as well if Florida State wins over Clemson since one more lost? Georgia Tech would have their 7th lost on the season.

Alabama beating LSU and then Ole Miss. beats LSU and wins the CCG will also eliminates SEC from the playoffs.
notre Dame could lose to Stanford. Utah could lose another game, and then Utah beats Stanford in the CCG could eliminate all 3.

(11-05-2015 09:04 AM)andy98 Wrote:  This probably would never happen, but what if.....
-Clemson goes undefeated.
-Ohio State goes undefeated.
-Ole Miss wins the SEC with 2 losses to Memphis and Florida.
-Memphis goes undefeated including a win over SEC champ Ole Miss.
-Alabama finishes with 1 loss to Ole Miss.
-Stanford wins the Pac Twelve with 1 loss to Northwestern.
-Oklahoma wins the Big Twelve with 1 loss to Texas.
-Baylor finishes with 1 loss to Oklahoma.

Other than Clemson and Ohio State, who would be the other 2 teams that would make the playoff?

Bama and Stanford. Memphis is out. Pretty cut and dry.