Ranger
Hall of Famer
Posts: 10,021
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 48
I Root For: SOF/Owl Basebal
Location:
|
RE: Bailiff 2.1 ?
(10-31-2015 09:04 AM)MemOwl Wrote: In discussions of DB's record at Rice, Rick Gerlach and I have fallen into a pattern where I analyze his full tenure at Rice and Rick dates everything to after Memphis-2012, since which time his record is 28-14 with a conference championship and 2 bowl wins in 3 trips. If the light is just right, some can look at this stretch as the Golden Era of Rice Football.
The record is what it is, and let's stipulate for grins that DB did in fact go through some favorable transformation in ability, approach, etc. on or about October 7, 2012. If you are willing to believe that (*), then I think you also have to question if some equally unfavorable shift (or reversion to the mean?) occurred after the Marshall game in 2013.
Since posting what is clearly the best win of his tenure at Rice, DB's record is 12-10, but it may well be the worst 12-10 in the history of college football.
The 12-10 segments as follows
0-5 vs. P5 teams with an average margin of defeat of 32 points
2-5 vs. bowl eligible G5 teams with average margin of defeat of 28 points
9-0 vs. non bowl eligible G5 teams with average margin of victory of 13 points
1-0 vs. FCS
Again, I'm not necessarily endorsing the Gerlach inflection hypothesis, but if we do act as if Bailiff is 28-14, we might begin to believe that he was 16-4 but has more recently been 12-10.
I can point to three things that happened after Marshall
1. He got a contract extension and might plausibly believe that a conference championship equates to de facto tenure, subject to excellence in graduation rates and compliance
2. He promoted an OC from within the staff who had no demonstrated capability for the position
3. Phillip Gaines, probably the best player Rice has produced in the last 30 years, exhausted his eligibility.
There is nothing to do about #3, but 1 and 2 are fixable.
More recently Rick has articulated the Halley's Comet theory that Rice will be good every 5 years (2008, 2013, ...) as performance peaks drive recruiting peaks. On the pace we are on since Marshall, it will be a really fun 2016 and 2017 waiting for 2018.
(*) As part of acceptance of the Gerlach Inflection Hypothesis, one agrees never again to mention the south Louisiana teachers college with a name that sounds like a 5 cent coin
I think the key question is where do we want to be. If we want to be right where we are, DB is exceptionally good at keeping us there. I would argue that right where we are is not a good place. First, it is no fun. Second, as many posters have cogently noted, right where we are is with a group of schools which may be hurting our national reputation in other areas (and if we stay where we are, we will not escape them)(for instance, when I was in HS, schools like Northwestern, Duke and Vanderbilt were clearly considered to be inferior schools to Rice academically. Now they are largely considered equal or superior. Note that each one is in a P5 conference) , and third, with the changes happening in the national football scene, where the rich will get richer and the poorer get poorer, not being among the "rich" puts on in an extremely vulnerable position. And CUSA is not among the rich.
If you accept that repositioning our football program is necessary to get to where we want to go, you have to consider who is the best guy to get us there. I do not believe DB is that person. Regardless of how many meaningless bowls we go to, we have to be able to hold our own against real teams, not glorified community colleges.
We are talking about the future of Rice. Not DB's feelings. He may be a great guy but ....... He has had a good ride.
The thing is, I think most people on the board agree on where we need to go and why. I guess some believe that DB has the ability to get us there. But regardless of the number of wins and bowls, you need to be competitive against P5 and top 50 teams, and as ably demonstrated above and by Walt and other posters, we have not been over these last 9 years, and there does not seem to be any reason to believe we will get there if we keep Bailiff.
|
|