(10-04-2015 06:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 05:43 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The MWC-Mountian division is pretty close in strength to the AAC according to Sagarins.

8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 76.76
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 75.04 74.08 ( 10) 3 74.89 ( 9)
10 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.59 74.91 ( 9) 7 74.76 ( 10)
11 AAC WEST (A) = 68.23 67.83 ( 11) 6 67.96 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 65.72 65.81 ( 12) 6 65.79 ( 12)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.46 64.39 ( 13) 6 64.38 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 62.80

AAC East is only sightly ahead of the MWC-Mountain where Boise State plays. Boise is not having a super poor SOS like Marshall last year.

If the AAC was having a mega season where they were playing like a power conference with 2-3 teams in the Top 15. That would be different.

That's only because data from last year still makes up a significant part of the rankings. The MW was the highest ranked conference by those same ratings last year. Now its likely the bottom (or close). Massey has a huge gap. In fact, Massey has the AAC closer to the ACC than it nearest G5 competitor (which is not the MW by the way). The ratings also have the gap between the AAC and the ACC as smaller than the gap between the ACC and the SEC. Is Aresco getting his "Tweener conference" ammunition?

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Winner. /thread

Boise State does have the factor of historical success/perception on their side. Don't underestimate it.

As it stands now, an AAC team deserves the slot.

I think everyone one should just realize there is no convincing these two.

(10-04-2015 06:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  In fact, Massey has the AAC closer to the ACC than it nearest G5 competitor (which is not the MW by the way).

Lessee, is this still true?

5. ACC, Mean 48.64
7. AAC, Mean 68.92
8. MAC, Mean 85.13

So {AAC-ACC=20.28} > {MAC-AAC=16.20}
(NB. 6= FBS Independents, which is not a conference as such.)

Quote: The ratings also have the gap between the AAC and the ACC as smaller than the gap between the ACC and the SEC. Is Aresco getting his "Tweener conference" ammunition?

1. SEC, Mean 34.33
5. ACC, Mean 48.64
7. AAC, Mean 68.92

So {ACC-SEC=14.31} < {AAC-ACC=20.28}

(10-04-2015 11:25 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I think everyone one should just realize there is no convincing these two.

There are too many of you guys on this board that looks at the win/loss record, and not the stats of the schools in the MWC. They are saying that Utah could win the PAC 12 conference. Utah almost lost to Utah State.

(10-05-2015 05:11 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 06:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  In fact, Massey has the AAC closer to the ACC than it nearest G5 competitor (which is not the MW by the way).

Lessee, is this still true?

5. ACC, Mean 48.64
7. AAC, Mean 68.92
8. MAC, Mean 85.13

So {AAC-ACC=20.28} > {MAC-AAC=16.20}
(NB. 6= FBS Independents, which is not a conference as such.)

Quote: The ratings also have the gap between the AAC and the ACC as smaller than the gap between the ACC and the SEC. Is Aresco getting his "Tweener conference" ammunition?

1. SEC, Mean 34.33
5. ACC, Mean 48.64
7. AAC, Mean 68.92

So {ACC-SEC=14.31} < {AAC-ACC=20.28}

Yeah, my bad. I was apparently using the Indy number.

(10-05-2015 06:21 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 11:25 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I think everyone one should just realize there is no convincing these two.

There are too many of you guys on this board that looks at the win/loss record, and not the stats of the schools in the MWC. They are saying that Utah could win the PAC 12 conference. Utah almost lost to Utah State.

you are what your record says you are. And the MWC is 6-26 vs FBS schools this year(with 4 wins by 1 score or less and a 5th by 9 points). 3-6 vs G5 schools. Sorry but that's just not good.

(10-04-2015 05:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  What Im saying is that any champ coming out of the AAC will have beaten several from a group of Temple, Memphis, Houston, Navy, Cinci, and ECU---most of which already have P5 wins. In other words---it would be like Boise playing several Boise quality G5's along the way.

If the AAC champ has fewer than two losses, or at least has the same number of losses as Boise, and if it plays out that the AAC champ has fewer than two losses and has wins vs. a few teams with 9-plus wins, then that would be enough, especially because it may turn out that Boise has no 9-win opponents.

But the 2015 Boise schedule is not weak like the 2014 Marshall schedule, so I wouldn't bet the house on any 2-loss team being selected over a 1-loss Boise team.

(10-05-2015 06:21 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 11:25 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I think everyone one should just realize there is no convincing these two.

There are too many of you guys on this board that looks at the win/loss record, and not the stats of the schools in the MWC. They are saying that Utah could win the PAC 12 conference. Utah almost lost to Utah State.

Wow.

(10-05-2015 03:00 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 05:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  What Im saying is that any champ coming out of the AAC will have beaten several from a group of Temple, Memphis, Houston, Navy, Cinci, and ECU---most of which already have P5 wins. In other words---it would be like Boise playing several Boise quality G5's along the way.

If the AAC champ has fewer than two losses, or at least has the same number of losses as Boise, and if it plays out that the AAC champ has fewer than two losses and has wins vs. a few teams with 9-plus wins, then that would be enough, especially because it may turn out that Boise has no 9-win opponents.

But the 2015 Boise schedule is not weak like the 2014 Marshall schedule, so I wouldn't bet the house on any 2-loss team being selected over a 1-loss Boise team.

Lets see how the season plays out for Virginia and Washington. But I think we agree that the AAC team likely gets the nod in a tie. Even I think a 2 loss AAC winner vs a 1-loss Boise is a crap shoot. I think the AAC team would still have a chance---but I wouldn't bet the next house payment on it. I don't think you could argue that selecting Boise in that instance is at all unreasonable--nor would selecting the 2-loss AAC team. Crap shoot city.