(10-04-2015 01:05 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:52 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The selection committee picks the best conference champion, not the best conference when determining who deserves the autobid.

That is something some of these AAC fans are not understanding.

And what you are failing to understand is that SOS is key. Yes Boise won the slot with 2 losses last year---but people forget that the MW was the top overall conference last year. In other words, Boise's conference SOS was considered meatier than the other G5 competitors. Winning that conference meant something. The one mantra that the selection committee has repeated over and over until its makes folks sick is that SOS is paramount. The AAC power rating in some rankings is currently closer to the ACC than the second place G5 competitor.

The SOS of your schedule, not the SOS of your conference.

I don't think you'll ever see a scenario where a G5 conference will have the autobid locked up with 95% certainty after the 5th week of the season. Good teams sometimes drop games. Anything can happen in a conference championship game.

I don't disagree. However, with 4 undefeated teams and the strongest ranked conference (thus the top conference SOS), the AAC has the inside track.

Wasnt ECU a lock this time last year?

(10-04-2015 01:14 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 11:50 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  It looks like coaches already find Boise and Memphis more impressive than Toledo thus far.

G5 in this week's Coaches Poll:

24. Boise State
25. Memphis

Others Receiving Votes: Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston

Coaches vote totals:

Boise State 100
Memphis 68
Toledo 24
Temple 16
Navy 12
Houston 11

-Boise has 1 loss and 100 votes. The 4 undefeated AAC schools combine for 107 votes total. That quite honestly isn't a lot of respect for the AAC.

-Temple and Navy will likely be beat down by Notre Dame before they can get into the Top 25. Memphis has a chance to get crushed by Ole Miss.

-Houston has no respect at this point, IMO.

I think you are missing the fact that Boise may as well be playing FCS teams the rest of the season.

If someone like Memphis goes undefeated they will easily leap frog Boise. Memphis has four very good teams left on the schedule.

Temple has two very good teams left on the schedule.

Navy has three very good teams left on their schedule.

It's okay to be mad.

What I do is lay the facts out on the table as to who in the G5 has the best resumes on common criteria.

That criteria shows that MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC schools still have a chance at the autobid after week 5 of the season.

This makes AAC fans very angry because as the strongest overall G5 conference they feel its certain they'll get the autobid. 100% certain. There is no way for any G5 school to be 100% confident about it after week 5.

I am 100% certain if any of the 4 undefeated AAC schools finish undefeated, they will get the Access Bowl.

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:52 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The selection committee picks the best conference champion, not the best conference when determining who deserves the autobid.

That is something some of these AAC fans are not understanding.

Q: How does the selection committee determine who is the best conference champion?
A: They look at who they played and who they beat.

Q: Who are the majority of schools you play every season?
A: Your conference.

Q: Does conference strength matter when determining who has a better resume?
A: Yes.

The one not understanding is not an AAC fan.

Conference strength works like this.

P5 (strong)
G5 (weak)

That is why no G5 school can be in conversation for the playoff.

At the G5 level non-conference schedule is very important. See what a weak non-conference schedule did to Marshall last year.

An unusally strong conference peformance can open a G5 conference up to more quality wins. Multiple Top 20 teams like the MAC in 2003 and 2012. The AAC is having a good year but nobody in the Top 20 (yet).

(10-04-2015 01:17 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:14 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 11:50 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  It looks like coaches already find Boise and Memphis more impressive than Toledo thus far.

G5 in this week's Coaches Poll:

24. Boise State
25. Memphis

Others Receiving Votes: Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston

Coaches vote totals:

Boise State 100
Memphis 68
Toledo 24
Temple 16
Navy 12
Houston 11

-Boise has 1 loss and 100 votes. The 4 undefeated AAC schools combine for 107 votes total. That quite honestly isn't a lot of respect for the AAC.

-Temple and Navy will likely be beat down by Notre Dame before they can get into the Top 25. Memphis has a chance to get crushed by Ole Miss.

-Houston has no respect at this point, IMO.

I think you are missing the fact that Boise may as well be playing FCS teams the rest of the season.

If someone like Memphis goes undefeated they will easily leap frog Boise. Memphis has four very good teams left on the schedule.

Temple has two very good teams left on the schedule.

Navy has three very good teams left on their schedule.

It's okay to be mad.

What I do is lay the facts out on the table as to who in the G5 has the best resumes on common criteria.

That criteria shows that MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC schools still have a chance at the autobid after week 5 of the season.

This makes AAC fans very angry because as the strongest overall G5 conference they feel its certain they'll get the autobid. 100% certain. There is no way for any G5 school to be 100% confident about it after week 5.

I am 100% certain if any of the 4 undefeated AAC schools finish undefeated, they will get the Access Bowl.

I only have 10% confidence either Houston, Temple, Navy or Memphis will go undefeated.

(10-04-2015 01:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Wasnt ECU a lock this time last year?

Of course.

Stever flipped out when I said Boise and Marshall were still in the running.

Now he's flipping out because I don't think Temple is going to finish 13-0.

(10-04-2015 12:43 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Key points AAC fans need to consider in the autobid race.

1) Boise State is rolling. They are the highest rated school in the coaches poll. The MWC has nothing this year outside of Boise. If you take away Boise's non-conference wins the MWC is 3-26. Chances are good they finish 12-1 with a resume that outshines any 1 loss AAC champ.

2) Toledo is favored. They'll be the favorite in all the remaining games and the MAC Championship game will be a defacto home game played only 60 miles from Toledo's campus in Ford Field. They have a better chance of going undefeated than any AAC team.

3) Western Kentucky has potential. They are the school with the highest rated opponent on the schedule in #5 LSU. Should they pull the upset they'll have the biggest resume booster available. They've won their last 2 games by an average of 40 points. Only loss is by 3 points to Indiana.

For AAC schools to think they have the autobid wrapped up at this point with undefeated Memphis, Temple, Navy and Houston is short sighted. If UC, ECU, UCF were undefeated I'd feel more confident about it.

Its like Eastern Michigan, UNLV and Georgia State getting out to 4-0 starts. Who realistically thinks they would run the table even with those starts?

Ole Miss was ranked number 3 one day ago.

You don't know what teams will be ranked at the end of the year. That's it's silly to say this one team we beat is so good right now!

And I want to point out to you that WKU has not beaten LSU yet so to factor them possibly winning is very selective of you.

(10-04-2015 01:17 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:14 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 11:50 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  It looks like coaches already find Boise and Memphis more impressive than Toledo thus far.

G5 in this week's Coaches Poll:

24. Boise State
25. Memphis

Others Receiving Votes: Toledo, Temple, Navy, Houston

Coaches vote totals:

Boise State 100
Memphis 68
Toledo 24
Temple 16
Navy 12
Houston 11

-Boise has 1 loss and 100 votes. The 4 undefeated AAC schools combine for 107 votes total. That quite honestly isn't a lot of respect for the AAC.

-Temple and Navy will likely be beat down by Notre Dame before they can get into the Top 25. Memphis has a chance to get crushed by Ole Miss.

-Houston has no respect at this point, IMO.

I think you are missing the fact that Boise may as well be playing FCS teams the rest of the season.

If someone like Memphis goes undefeated they will easily leap frog Boise. Memphis has four very good teams left on the schedule.

Temple has two very good teams left on the schedule.

Navy has three very good teams left on their schedule.

It's okay to be mad.

What I do is lay the facts out on the table as to who in the G5 has the best resumes on common criteria.

That criteria shows that MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC schools still have a chance at the autobid after week 5 of the season.

This makes AAC fans very angry because as the strongest overall G5 conference they feel its certain they'll get the autobid. 100% certain. There is no way for any G5 school to be 100% confident about it after week 5.

I am 100% certain if any of the 4 undefeated AAC schools finish undefeated, they will get the Access Bowl.

I'm just do not get that guy lol. He thinks it's okay to believe these wild and unlikely scenarios like WKU beating LSU then winning all their games. But it's impossible for an AAC team to do the same.

If you ask me Notre Dame and Ole Miss seem pretty vulnerable.

(10-03-2015 11:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the only thing I would say- the MWC has talked so much crap thru the years- it's kind of nice to see them get their comeuppance for once this year.

AAC gets the CUSA 2.0 label
CUSA gets the Sun Belt 2.0 label

Why didn't MountainWAC stick ?

(10-04-2015 01:27 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:52 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The selection committee picks the best conference champion, not the best conference when determining who deserves the autobid.

That is something some of these AAC fans are not understanding.

Q: How does the selection committee determine who is the best conference champion?
A: They look at who they played and who they beat.

Q: Who are the majority of schools you play every season?
A: Your conference.

Q: Does conference strength matter when determining who has a better resume?
A: Yes.

The one not understanding is not an AAC fan.

Conference strength works like this.

P5 (strong)
G5 (weak)

That is why no G5 school can be in conversation for the playoff.

At the G5 level non-conference schedule is very important. See what a weak non-conference schedule did to Marshall last year.

An unusally strong conference peformance can open a G5 conference up to more quality wins. Multiple Top 20 teams like the MAC in 2003 and 2012. The AAC is having a good year but nobody in the Top 20 (yet).

Didn't work like that last year. CUSA = weak. MW = strong. Marshall never led in the selection committee rankings. Despite the fact that the coaches and AP polls consistently ranked Marshall MUCH higher than Boise, the CFP committee had no problem flipping the two. When the question is P5 vs G5---then yes, all the committee sees in G5=weak. However, when the P5 vs G5 question is off the table, they are just as capable of seeing the difference in G5 conferences as folks on these boards.

(10-03-2015 10:52 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Craig Thompson is the commissioner of the MWC. He's the only commissioner the MWC has ever had and the stated goal of the MWC beyond strengthening rivalries was to eventually land designation as a BCS conference.

Craig Thompson showed BCS commissioners various performance stats on how his conference competed in non-conference play better than some of the existing BCS conferences.

The BCS in response adapted stated rules for BCS designation. There shall be no more than 7 BCS conferences and no less than 5. The 5th, 6th and 7th best conference had to place at least 50% as many teams in the BCS standings as the 4th best conference.

Boise State received an invitation to join the MWC as its 10th school and with that invitation it was to elevate the MWC to the stature of a BCS conference based on the BCS criteria.

The MWC's non-conference performance today, October 3rd 2015 has power BCS written all over it.

Wyoming 13 Appalachian State 31
Air Force 11 Navy 31
San Jose St. 21 Auburn 35
New Mexico 38 New Mexico State 29

The sense the MWC's time has arrived on the prime time stage is now. With a non-conference record of 5-26 against FBS competition it screams AUTOMATIC BID.

wasn't this a few years back when the BCS existed and Utah, TCU and BYU were part of the 9 school MWC? This is not the same MWC as that one. Your reply to Craig Thompson is a few years late my friend. Cheers!

(10-04-2015 02:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:27 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:57 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:52 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The selection committee picks the best conference champion, not the best conference when determining who deserves the autobid.

That is something some of these AAC fans are not understanding.

Q: How does the selection committee determine who is the best conference champion?
A: They look at who they played and who they beat.

Q: Who are the majority of schools you play every season?
A: Your conference.

Q: Does conference strength matter when determining who has a better resume?
A: Yes.

The one not understanding is not an AAC fan.

Conference strength works like this.

P5 (strong)
G5 (weak)

That is why no G5 school can be in conversation for the playoff.

At the G5 level non-conference schedule is very important. See what a weak non-conference schedule did to Marshall last year.

An unusally strong conference peformance can open a G5 conference up to more quality wins. Multiple Top 20 teams like the MAC in 2003 and 2012. The AAC is having a good year but nobody in the Top 20 (yet).

Didn't work like that last year. CUSA = weak. MW = strong. Marshall never led in the selection committee rankings. Despite the fact that the coaches and AP polls consistently ranked Marshall MUCH higher than Boise, the CFP committee had no problem flipping the two. When the question is P5 vs G5---then yes, all the committee sees in G5=weak. However, when the P5 vs G5 question is off the table, they are just as capable of seeing the difference in G5 conferences as folks on these boards.

He and Davidst are the only two people on this board who do not see reality. It's a race between the AAC champ, Toledo, and Boise. Unless something very crazy and unlikely happens (which could) everyone else is out of the race.

If WKU beats LSU and the AAC teams start losing to teams whey should not lose to then yes let's expand this discussion. But none of that has happened no matter how much he wants it to.

(10-04-2015 02:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Didn't work like that last year. CUSA = weak. MW = strong.

What happened last year was Marshall's overall schedule = weak; Boise's overall schedule = one of the strongest among G5 teams.

If one team's overall schedule is much stronger than another's, the committee will give that weight as they did last year. But if one G5 conference champ had no quality wins out of conference, then comparing their entire conference to another probably won't help them much. A really strong non-con schedule, as Boise has this year, is going to make their overall schedule look good enough. Any undefeated G5 team will be ahead of Boise in the eyes of the committee, but if we're talking about Boise and another G5 champ both having one loss (or both having two losses), it's going to be a tossup, and if it's a G5 champ with no wins over P5 teams, Boise will have the edge.

The chances of WKU upsetting LSU are slim. Only in 5-10% range. If they do it they have the best G5 non-conference resume by far.

G5 race comes down to the 5 conference champions every season. You can't begin to dismiss a conference unless all of its schools pick up the third loss. At that point they are truely not in the discussion.

CUSA and SBC have multiple teams with only 1 loss at this point.

(10-04-2015 04:14 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 02:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Didn't work like that last year. CUSA = weak. MW = strong.

What happened last year was Marshall's overall schedule = weak; Boise's overall schedule = one of the strongest among G5 teams.

If one team's overall schedule is much stronger than another's, the committee will give that weight as they did last year. But if one G5 conference champ had no quality wins out of conference, then comparing their entire conference to another probably won't help them much. A really strong non-con schedule, as Boise has this year, is going to make their overall schedule look good enough. Any undefeated G5 team will be ahead of Boise in the eyes of the committee, but if we're talking about Boise and another G5 champ both having one loss (or both having two losses), it's going to be a tossup, and if it's a G5 champ with no wins over P5 teams, Boise will have the edge.

Thank You.

Normally the conference with the best team will be from the strongest overall conference because one really good team at the G5 level can bring up an entire conference.

This year the AAC may be able to have the strongest conference by committee without containing the strongest champion.

(10-04-2015 01:55 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:43 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 01:23 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 12:50 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  That's what I figured. I don't see how the AAC isn't in the drivers seat right now. With 4 undefeated teams the odds just have to be in our favor in terms of a team winning enough games AND strength of schedule. Also we have the most wins vs the P5 the best head to head record vs other G5's (9-1, I believe).

The AAC is not in the drivers seat for the autobid because none of their teams have 2 wins against the P5 nor have they any ranked wins thus far.

Further the 4 teams at the top have not finished 11-2 very often if ever. Its not like we are discussing undefeated Boise, Marshall or NIU teams here. Its Memphis, Temple, Navy and Houston.

The AAC has the most potential but it has the most questions.

Boise has the most tradition of finishing seasons with 2 losses or less. They only have 1 loss and are starting to mow down MWC opponents. They beat Hawaii 55-0 this week.

dude 2 wins against P5 isn't a ******* requirement for getting the spot.

And don't you ******* get it? It doesn't require all 4 teams finishing with 2 losses. It requires 1. Sorry that's too tough for you to comprehend- but that is reality.

Let's say Boise rolls to a 12-1 record.

Only 1 of Memphis, Houston, Navy or Temple can win the AAC. Boise only has to compete against 1 school from the AAC for the autobid.

Will the AAC champ have 1 or fewer losses? At this point its very hard to say. History says probably not.

Temple could very well lose to Penn State, finish 6-2 in the AAC and go on to win the AAC with a 10-3 overall record.

The AAC champ I think can beat Boise with a 11-2 record quite frankly. Boise's SOS is going to be that weak. Boise's schedule right now has 0 games against teams with 4 wins or fewer than 2 losses. 7 of the 12 already have 3 losses. The CCG already is guaranteed to be against at best a 3 loss team. The SOS difference between say Boise and Memphis is going to be that great.

And let's say this about Boise's schedule... if they win out- their best division win would be best case 9-3. If New Mexico, Utah St, or Air Force win out. I don't think you realize how poor Boise's SOS is going to be.

Throw out all the win/lost records. Boise State's strong opponent so far in conference was Hawaii. Hawaii beat Colorado, and Colorado gave a scare to Oregon. Some of the teams on the east will still be strong like Air Force, Colorado State and Utah State. UNLV, San Jose State, Hawaii (again if they win the west and face them in the CCG) and UNR.

(10-04-2015 04:14 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 02:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Didn't work like that last year. CUSA = weak. MW = strong.

What happened last year was Marshall's overall schedule = weak; Boise's overall schedule = one of the strongest among G5 teams.

If one team's overall schedule is much stronger than another's, the committee will give that weight as they did last year. But if one G5 conference champ had no quality wins out of conference, then comparing their entire conference to another probably won't help them much. A really strong non-con schedule, as Boise has this year, is going to make their overall schedule look good enough. Any undefeated G5 team will be ahead of Boise in the eyes of the committee, but if we're talking about Boise and another G5 champ both having one loss (or both having two losses), it's going to be a tossup, and if it's a G5 champ with no wins over P5 teams, Boise will have the edge.

What Im saying is that any champ coming out of the AAC will have beaten several from a group of Temple, Memphis, Houston, Navy, Cinci, and ECU---most of which already have P5 wins. In other words---it would be like Boise playing several Boise quality G5's along the way.

Every game the eventual AAC champ plays in the conference will be better than its counterpart in competing conferences because the AAC as a group has piled up a very strong record against the other conferences. Boise will spend the rest of the season playing teams that are significantly weaker in SOS than conference games the eventual AAC champ will be playing.

In other words---from here on, the Boise SOS will fall where the AAC champ's SOS will rise (with respect to the Boise SOS). Boise is not going to have teams like Memphis, Navy, and Temple to play. The closest they have is Air Force---who was destroyed by Navy. The fact is, Boise has played a Marshall like schedule to date. There are two horrible P5's (one is winless vs FBS and the other's only FBS win is against a hapless MW team), a win over a horrible Idaho team (another team with no FBS wins) and a loss to a 2 loss BYU team. From here on they only play low-rated MW teams. Worse yet, due to a very weak western MW division, the Boise CCG will be probably against an unimpressive .500-ish west division winner. Even assuming they win out, its going to be very tough for Boise to get the access bowl when you really look at the final resume they will be bringing to the table. They will need help. They need to be the only decent choice still standing (kinda like last year).

The MWC-Mountian division is pretty close in strength to the AAC according to Sagarins.

8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 76.76
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 75.04 74.08 ( 10) 3 74.89 ( 9)
10 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.59 74.91 ( 9) 7 74.76 ( 10)
11 AAC WEST (A) = 68.23 67.83 ( 11) 6 67.96 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 65.72 65.81 ( 12) 6 65.79 ( 12)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.46 64.39 ( 13) 6 64.38 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 62.80

AAC East is only sightly ahead of the MWC-Mountain where Boise State plays. Boise is not having a super poor SOS like Marshall last year.

If the AAC was having a mega season where they were playing like a power conference with 2-3 teams in the Top 15. That would be different.

(10-04-2015 05:43 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The MWC-Mountian division is pretty close in strength to the AAC according to Sagarins.

8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 76.76
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 75.04 74.08 ( 10) 3 74.89 ( 9)
10 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.59 74.91 ( 9) 7 74.76 ( 10)
11 AAC WEST (A) = 68.23 67.83 ( 11) 6 67.96 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 65.72 65.81 ( 12) 6 65.79 ( 12)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.46 64.39 ( 13) 6 64.38 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 62.80

AAC East is only sightly ahead of the MWC-Mountain where Boise State plays. Boise is not having a super poor SOS like Marshall last year.

If the AAC was having a mega season where they were playing like a power conference with 2-3 teams in the Top 15. That would be different.

That's only because data from last year still makes up a significant part of the rankings. The MW was the highest ranked conference by those same ratings last year. Now its likely the bottom (or close). Massey has a huge gap. In fact, Massey has the AAC closer to the ACC than it nearest G5 competitor (which is not the MW by the way). The ratings also have the gap between the AAC and the ACC as smaller than the gap between the ACC and the SEC. Is Aresco getting his "Tweener conference" ammunition?

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

(10-04-2015 06:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-04-2015 05:43 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The MWC-Mountian division is pretty close in strength to the AAC according to Sagarins.

8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 76.76
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 75.04 74.08 ( 10) 3 74.89 ( 9)
10 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.59 74.91 ( 9) 7 74.76 ( 10)
11 AAC WEST (A) = 68.23 67.83 ( 11) 6 67.96 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 65.72 65.81 ( 12) 6 65.79 ( 12)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.46 64.39 ( 13) 6 64.38 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 62.80

AAC East is only sightly ahead of the MWC-Mountain where Boise State plays. Boise is not having a super poor SOS like Marshall last year.

If the AAC was having a mega season where they were playing like a power conference with 2-3 teams in the Top 15. That would be different.

That's only because data from last year still makes up a significant part of the rankings. The MW was the highest ranked conference by those same ratings last year. Now its likely the bottom (or close). Massey has a huge gap. In fact, Massey has the AAC closer to the ACC than it nearest G5 competitor.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Ohio State did struggled against Hawaii.
Colorado State almost won against Colorado and Minnesota.
Utah State lost to Utah by 10 points.
San Jose State gave Auburn a scare.
UNR was rolling points on Texas A&M.

These schools in the P5 who are near the top or the top of their conferences will disagree with you about the MWC. MWC gets more respect than some of the other conferences. Memphis and Temple are not your type of schools that win many games. So, as you watch the games? MWC is much tougher than you think they are.