1. UTC
2. Wofford
3. Mercer
4. Furman
5. WCU
6. ETSU
7. Samford
8. UNCG
9. VMI
10 Citadel

First Team Selections
Spencer Collins. Wofford
Stephen Croone. Furman
Casey Jones. UTC
Tevon Saddler. UNCG
Justin Tuoyo. UTC

Apparently the folks at Athlon think that Furman's run in the SoCon tournament was a fluke. I don't. They whipped UTC and Mercer and came within 3 points and an untimely injury to their best front court player (Kris Acox) of beating Wofford and taking it all. Plus they've got more coming back than all of those teams.

But not as much coming in as ETSU. The way things seem to be rolling, I think the Bucs have the horses and the fire to take it all. But we'll have to see how the preseason excitement survives a bump or two with real life adversity: an injury, a disappointment or two over playing time, a bad loss, etc.. Still, I'll go for it:

1. ETSU: new length, athleticism and positive energy abound. But getting the mix right with so much new will take time.
2. Furman: 4 freshmen got 20 minutes or more a game. Expect them to step it up even more. Croone, Acox and Ferrara provide experienced leadership in both front and back court.
3. UTC: Loss of their coach and a 31 minute per game point guard on a team with turnover problems will be enough to keep them from the top
4. Wofford: they'll be strong early, but the loss of Cochran and Skinner without strong enough new blood will leave them a little short come tournament time
5. Mercer: they'll drop off a bit from last year as Hoffman reloads, especially in the front court. But if 7'1" Fishler and/or 6'9" Ringer can produce in the paint, they'll be very tough.
6. WCU: too little front court help for Torrion Brummitt
7. UNCG: they have the talent to do better, but have not performed on the court
8. Samford: rebuilding with freshmen will take another year
9. VMI: the adjustment from Dugger Baucom to DeChellis associate head coach Dan Earls from Navy may take time. Earls sounds like a great prospect in the right place, but Baucom's style is unique.
10. Citadel: Baucom will try to do here, what he did at VMI. But he's got very little experience on board to work with.

It thrills me to no end to see objective analyst SWVA fan picking ETSU to win it all in Southern Conference basketball.

(09-15-2015 10:05 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  Apparently the folks at Athlon think that Furman's run in the SoCon tournament was a fluke. I don't. They whipped UTC and Mercer and came within an untimely injury to their best front court player (Kris Acox) of beating Wofford and taking it all. Plus they've got more coming back than all of those teams.

But not as much coming in as ETSU. The way things seem to be rolling, I think the Bucs have the horses and the fire to take it all. But we'll have to see how the preseason excitement survives a bump or two with real life adversity: an injury, a disappointment or two over playing time, a bad loss, etc.. Still, I'll go for it:

1. ETSU: new length, athleticism and positive energy abound. But getting the mix right with so much new will take time.
2. Furman: 4 freshmen got 20 minutes or more a game. Expect them to step it up even more. Croone, Acox and Ferrara provide experienced leadership in both front and back court.
3. UTC: Loss of their coach and a 31 minute per game point guard on a team with turnover problems will be enough to keep them from the top
4. Wofford: they'll be strong early, but the loss of Cochran and Skinner without strong enough new blood will leave them a little short come tournament time
5. Mercer: they'll drop off a bit from last year as Hoffman reloads, especially in the front court
6. WCU: too little front court help for Torrion Brummitt
7. UNCG: they have the talent to do better, but have not performed on the court
8. Samford: rebuilding with freshmen will take another year
9. VMI: the adjustment from Dugger Baucom to DeChellis associate head coach Dan Earls from Navy may take time. Earls sounds like a great prospect in the right place, but Baucom's style is unique.
10. Citadel: Baucom will try to do here, what he did at VMI. But he's got very little experience on board to work with.

I like your analysis. I've found Athlon is always too soon with their publication. The write up for ETSU didn't mention many of the new players.

A lot depends on Forbes coaching style. Would you have picked this same ETSU team to finish first if Bartow was at the helm?

I actually think Bartow would have pulled a top 3 finish, but it would be ugly and non-competitive out of conference. With new head coach Forbes and the first recruiting class, no way the Bucs don't finish top 3. Even swva is seeing rose, and his glasses are CLEAR; it's a budding team we got coming.

I'll eat my shorts if we don't finish top 3, and there is every hope and reason to push for 1st place.

Bartow would have never pulled in this class, and we would have finished mid pack.

If anyone finds vegas odds on teams to win the SoCon, please post a link! I might have to make a wager this year

A lot depends on this.. these transfers that averaged 2 or 3 points per game at their previous school.. are they like Bates or more like Giplaye

(09-15-2015 02:07 PM)ETSUfan1 Wrote:  Bartow would have never pulled in this class, and we would have finished mid pack.

Odds are you're right, but I think Furry would have pulled one of his cyclical decent seasons out his Barthole just to plague us with a contract extension.

(09-15-2015 10:29 AM)Mister Jennings2 Wrote:  It thrills me to no end to see objective analyst SWVA fan picking ETSU to win it all in Southern Conference basketball.

Word.

I had forgotten about Furman's talented underclassmen. Also, Croone poses matchup problems on both ends of the floor. He'll be an all-SOCON player this year.

As for Wofford, I think they'll be towards the bottom half of the league. I just don't think they'll be able to compensate for the losses of two all-league players.

Lastly, I wholeheartedly agree with swvabucsfan's take on UTC. Remember - they needed a miracle 3 to beat us last year and then beat us by only 8 at their place at a time when we were irrevocably falling apart. I think they're fatally flawed and certainly won't have an inside presence against us this year. Incidentally, Tuyo was talking some smack on Twitter about ETSU basketball, saying that "I swear we're gonna beat ETSU by 20 - twice". Shots have been fired!

(09-15-2015 02:58 PM)bucfan1968 Wrote:  A lot depends on this.. these transfers that averaged 2 or 3 points per game at their previous school.. are they like Bates or more like Giplaye

Very good point - I'm thinking especially of Nigel Holley here. When I get nervous about picking the Bucs high, I worry first about chemistry, and second about the post.

In the best of circumstances Peter Jurkin will need to be used carefully - lots of rest, and help from someone else in the post. That probably means lots of minutes from Nigel Holley. Far more minutes than he ever got as a JUCO.

The situation in the post is an unknown. The difference between this year and last, with Bates and Giplaye, is that we do have options. Alex Bates had well established limitations - our guys may be unknowns, but they haven't proven that they CAN'T do it on the D1 level. Bates had established what he could and couldn't do in previous stops at Northeastern and Tennessee Tech. Shampoo criticized me a little last preseason for writing off Bates. Sadly, I think that proved to be pretty well justified.

One option is 6'8" Holley, bolstered by a strong power forward in 6'7" 240 (according to his tweets) Bennie Lufile. We're a little worried about how that might work out. In most recent years we would be celebrating the prospect of having 2 such front court players together. I look at Holley as a potential Greg Hamlin: a minor cog on a powerful JUCO team, who proved that he could give us solid post minutes even against a team like Pittsburgh.

If not, then another option is 6'8" 230 freshman Toriano Stokes with his remarkable length (9'4" standing reach). Again, remember that he will be bolstered by Lufile at the 4. I'd rather give him a redshirt and build for the future, but we've seen freshmen like Andrew Reed and Brad Nuckles give us 15 useful minutes in the post before.

And for a third option, 6'7" Isaac Banks might look a lot better paired with a Lufile at power forward. He was already the best ETSU rebounder on a per minute basis last year. On the SoCon level a 6'7" 215 Isaac Banks, paired with a 6'7" 240 Bennie Lufile doesn't sound too bad.

The point is that last year Giplaye went down and left us with Alex Bates and his proven limitations, a learning Isaac Banks... and no other regulars over 6'4"!!!! We were the smallest team in the SoCon. This year, even if Jurkin goes down (an unfortunately real possibility), we've got four (4) other guys 6'7" or 6'8".

Some guys like Holley haven't proven that they can do it on the D1 level. But, unlike Bates, they haven't proven that they CAN'T.

When is the last time ETSU had so many front court options?

Swva, you were right about Bates, but I'm not sure yet where I criticized you over him previously. In the "Who will step up for the Bucs" frontcourt thread you posted another typical quality analysis, and my first posts were very much inn agreement about him being a ? and possibility to disappoint. I just knew he was going to start if no ome else wowed.....anyways, this year we all seem far more confident about the post developing. Forbes clearly recruited to have more than ome option, not even the b
hope and pray kind. I have a gut feeling Jurkin will be ready for more than coach-controlled play; we'll see.

(09-18-2015 07:21 AM)shampoo Wrote:  Swva, you were right about Bates, but I'm not sure yet where I criticized you over him previously. In the "Who will step up for the Bucs" frontcourt thread you posted another typical quality analysis, and my first posts were very much inn agreement about him being a ? and possibility to disappoint. I just knew he was going to start if no ome else wowed.....anyways, this year we all seem far more confident about the post developing. Forbes clearly recruited to have more than ome option, not even the b
hope and pray kind. I have a gut feeling Jurkin will be ready for more than coach-controlled play; we'll see.

No big deal. But I was thinking of post #10 on this page: http://www.csnbbs.com/thread-699441.html

Where you said, "You really are writing Alex Bates off, aren't you? For better or worse, Bartow is going to start him and provide significant playing time, at least early in the season. Otherwise, I like your scenarios."

I realize that this is more positive than critical, but we did differ on the likely usefulness of Mr. Bates.

By the way, I sincerely hope that you are right about Jurkin. Free him from his health problems and many of our worries about next year's team will disappear. I like his athleticism, and I like what I've seen of his attitude. A healthy, freed up Peter Jurkin could be a lion on the court.

But, as you know, I tend to rely on the recent past as a guide to the future. And Jurkin's has been severely troubled.

Yes, we can't be overly dismayed if Jurkin can't guarantee big minutes....my comment about Bates had nothing to do with use, just the reality that Bates would staft and eat minutes initially, which happened until Bartow fed the guards. (My dad knew Bartow, and Bartow said he "had to" start Bates and play him.) Other comments were in line with potential low ceiling, I think. We differed on optimism, and now I know better. :)

The thing is that sometimes players do change and make big improvements from one year to the next (Tommy Hubbard, Rashawn Rembert), and guys like me who are always looking at past performance will fail to predict that. And the optimistic guys might be right in those cases.

(09-18-2015 06:55 AM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 02:58 PM)bucfan1968 Wrote:  A lot depends on this.. these transfers that averaged 2 or 3 points per game at their previous school.. are they like Bates or more like Giplaye

Very good point - I'm thinking especially of Nigel Holley here. When I get nervous about picking the Bucs high, I worry first about chemistry, and second about the post.

In the best of circumstances Peter Jurkin will need to be used carefully - lots of rest, and help from someone else in the post. That probably means lots of minutes from Nigel Holley. Far more minutes than he ever got as a JUCO.

The situation in the post is an unknown. The difference between this year and last, with Bates and Giplaye, is that we do have options. Alex Bates had well established limitations - our guys may be unknowns, but they haven't proven that they CAN'T do it on the D1 level. Bates had established what he could and couldn't do in previous stops at Northeastern and Tennessee Tech. Shampoo criticized me a little last preseason for writing off Bates. Sadly, I think that proved to be pretty well justified.

One option is 6'8" Holley, bolstered by a strong power forward in 6'7" 240 (according to his tweets) Bennie Lufile. We're a little worried about how that might work out. In most recent years we would be celebrating the prospect of having 2 such front court players together. I look at Holley as a potential Greg Hamlin: a minor cog on a powerful JUCO team, who proved that he could give us solid post minutes even against a team like Pittsburgh.

If not, then another option is 6'8" 230 freshman Toriano Stokes with his remarkable length (9'4" standing reach). Again, remember that he will be bolstered by Lufile at the 4. I'd rather give him a redshirt and build for the future, but we've seen freshmen like Andrew Reed and Brad Nuckles give us 15 useful minutes in the post before.

And for a third option, 6'7" Isaac Banks might look a lot better paired with a Lufile at power forward. He was already the best ETSU rebounder on a per minute basis last year. On the SoCon level a 6'7" 215 Isaac Banks, paired with a 6'7" 240 Bennie Lufile doesn't sound too bad.

The point is that last year Giplaye went down and left us with Alex Bates and his proven limitations, a learning Isaac Banks... and no other regulars over 6'4"!!!! We were the smallest team in the SoCon. This year, even if Jurkin goes down (an unfortunately real possibility), we've got four (4) other guys 6'7" or 6'8".

Some guys like Holley haven't proven that they can do it on the D1 level. But, unlike Bates, they haven't proven that they CAN'T.

When is the last time ETSU had so many front court options?

Great points. It is amazing how expectations have been raised in a mere 6 months - there is a now a new norm with respect to depth and talent. No more hoping that one of our players will be "good enough" to fill a role.

Sporting News Predictions

1. UTC
2. Wofford
3. ETSU
4. Mercer
5. WCU
6. Furman
7. Samford
8. UNC Greensboro
9. VMI
10. Citadel

All SoCon Team:
Stephen Croone
Mike Brown
Casey Jones
Tevon Saddler
Justin Tuoyo

Top Player: Casey Jones
Top Newcomer: Ge'lawn Guyn
Top Coach: Mike Young