Here are the over-under win totals for each team in 2015.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...win-totals

Because conference records always add up to .500, we can derive the projected non-conference records for each league:

SEC
49-7
36-7 without FCS games
11 games against P5/ND

Pac 12
28-9
20-9 without FCS games
10 games against P5/ND

Big 12
23-7
15-7 without FCS games
8 games against P5/ND

Big 10
40-16
33-16 without FCS games
17 games against P5/ND

ACC
37-19
21-19 without FCS games (16 FCS games!!)
22 games against P5/ND

MWC
25.5-23.5
13.5-23.5 without FCS games
22 games against P5/ND

American
24.5-23.5
14.5-23.5 without FCS games
21 games against P5/ND

CUSA
24-28
14-28 without FCS games
25 games against P5/ND

MAC
20-32
10-32 without FCS games
24 games against P5/ND

Sun Belt
14.5-30.5
4.5-30.5 without FCS game
19 games against P5/ND

The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Some of the individual team lines, and some of the props on that site, are interesting. http://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

If you want to bet on North Dakota State to win its 5th straight FCS title, they're giving you -130 (bet $130 to win $100); you get better odds (-110) if you take the rest of the FCS field.

For this year's CFP: If you want to bet that two teams from the same conference will be selected, they give you +325 -- it would be a sweet payoff if you bet that and win, but IMO the odds accurately reflect that it's unlikely to happen. You get about the same odds (+350) if you bet on Ohio State to repeat as CFP champs.

Ohio State is the only team listed as better than even money to be chosen for the 4-team playoff, they're at -230. Bama and TCU have next lowest odds at +190, and they give slightly lower odds (+180) if you want to bet that at least one 2-loss team will be chosen for the playoff.

Biggest favorites to win an FBS conference title? Ohio State and Boise State, both at -270.

They set up those O/U win totals to make most of the team's odds look unattractive for betting, but there are a few that might tempt fans of the team to put some $ down on the over for their own team: FSU +100 (even money), Ohio State +100 (if you want to bet on them to win at least 12), Baylor +120 (to bet on them to win at least 11 -- that's got to be tempting for Baylor fans), and they're really trying to tempt Texas fans with an O/U of 6.5 and +155 to bet the over.

Of all of the "over" bets, I'd be most tempted to take Auburn -- 8.5 O/U, +100 on the over. They only have to win 9 for you to win that bet, and their schedule includes home games vs. San Jose State, Idaho, FCS Jacksonville State, and a road game at Kentucky.

SEC 
11 games total against P5/ND
0.78 games per team against OOC P5 teams.
8 conference games each
8.78 games total against P5 level teams

Pac 12
10 games against P5/ND
0.83 games per team against OOC P5 teams
9 games conference games each
9.83 games total against P5 level teams.

Big 12 
8 games against P5/ND
0.80 games per team against OOC P5 teams
9 games conference games each
9.80 games total against P5 level teams.

Big 10
17 games against P5/ND
1.21 games per team against OOC P5 teams
8 games conference games each
9.21 games total against P5 level teams.

ACC
22 games against P5/ND
1.57 games per team against OOC P5 teams
8 games conference games each
9.57 games total against P5 level teams.

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

Marshall's game with Purdue is in Huntington.

(07-19-2015 01:16 PM)mufanatehc Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

Marshall's game with Purdue is in Huntington.

MTSU hosts Vandy.

(07-19-2015 01:18 PM)SigNuTopper Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 01:16 PM)mufanatehc Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

Marshall's game with Purdue is in Huntington.

MTSU hosts Vandy.

Also: Miss St at Southern Miss, NC State at ODU

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

well, thats not entirely accurate. of course the P5 conferences play more P5 teams than the G5 conferences, thats a given when your entire conference schedule is made up of P5 teams.

but putting that aside, if you calculate based on average number of teams in a conference, both the MAC and MWC play more P5 teams on average than CUSA.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-15/mtn-w...hedule.php


Boise State hosts the Huskies of Washington, and play at Virginia.

It could be nail biter if Boise State goes undefeated and the Huskies win the PAC 12.

MY MAC NON-FCS SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN, CHANCES OF WINNING:
- OkState @CMU [10%]
- Ohio @Idaho [70%]
- MSU @WMU [20%]
- Kent @Illinois [15%]
- Old Dom @EMU [35%]
- BGSU @Tenn [20%]
- Akron @Oklahoma [10%]
- UNLV @NIU [80%]
WEEK 1 MAC OOC: 2.6W - 5.4L

- EMU @Wyoming [25%]
- BGSU @Maryland [35%]
- Miami @Wisconsin [5%]
- Buffalo @PSU [20%]
- Toledo @Arkansas [25%]
- UMass @Colorado [35%]
- Pitt @Akron [45%]
- WMU @GA-Southern [45%]
- Marshall @Ohio [40%]
- BSU @Texas-AM [15%]
WEEK 2 MAC OOC: 2.95W - 7.05L

- Kent @Minnesota [10%]
- Buffalo @FAU [45%]
- CMU @Syracuse [20%]
- Temple @UMass [45%]
- Memphis @BGSU [45%]
- Cinci @Miami [35%]
- NIU @OSU [15%]
- Iowa State @Toledo [60%]
WEEK 3 MAC OOC: 2.7W - 5.3L

- Army @EMU [50%]
- CMU @MSU [15%]
- NIU @BC [50%]
- Marshall @Kent [15%]
- WMU @OSU [10%]
- BGSU @Purdue [40%]
- Nevada @Buffalo [35%]
- Akron @LLAF [35%]
- ArkSt @Toledo [60%]
- Ohio @Minn [35%]
- UMass @ND [20%]
- Miami @W Kentucky [30%]
- BSU @Northwestern [35%]
WEEK 4 MAC OOC: 4.6W - 8.4L

- FIU @UMass [50%]
- EMU @LSU [5%]
- GA-State @BSU [65%]
PAST-WK-4 MAC OOC: 1.2W - 1.8L

TOTAL: 14.05W - 27.95L

(07-19-2015 03:03 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  MY MAC NON-FCS SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN, CHANCES OF WINNING:
- OkState @CMU [10%]
- Ohio @Idaho [70%]
- MSU @WMU [20%]
- Kent @Illinois [15%]
- Old Dom @EMU [35%]
- BGSU @Tenn [20%]
- Akron @Oklahoma [10%]
- UNLV @NIU [80%]
WEEK 1 MAC OOC: 2.6W - 5.4L

- EMU @Wyoming [25%]
- BGSU @Maryland [35%]
- Miami @Wisconsin [5%]
- Buffalo @PSU [20%]
- Toledo @Arkansas [25%]
- UMass @Colorado [35%]
- Pitt @Akron [45%]
- WMU @GA-Southern [45%]
- Marshall @Ohio [40%]
- BSU @Texas-AM [15%]
WEEK 2 MAC OOC: 2.95W - 7.05L

- Kent @Minnesota [10%]
- Buffalo @FAU [45%]
- CMU @Syracuse [20%]
- Temple @UMass [45%]
- Memphis @BGSU [45%]
- Cinci @Miami [35%]
- NIU @OSU [15%]
- Iowa State @Toledo [60%]
WEEK 3 MAC OOC: 2.7W - 5.3L

- Army @EMU [50%]
- CMU @MSU [15%]
- NIU @BC [50%]
- Marshall @Kent [15%]
- WMU @OSU [10%]
- BGSU @Purdue [40%]
- Nevada @Buffalo [35%]
- Akron @LLAF [35%]
- ArkSt @Toledo [60%]
- Ohio @Minn [35%]
- UMass @ND [20%]
- Miami @W Kentucky [30%]
- BSU @Northwestern [35%]
WEEK 4 MAC OOC: 4.6W - 8.4L

- FIU @UMass [50%]
- EMU @LSU [5%]
- GA-State @BSU [65%]
PAST-WK-4 MAC OOC: 1.2W - 1.8L

TOTAL: 14.05W - 27.95L

That's VERY generous of you to give NIU a 15% chance to win @OSU week 3... i give us like a 2-5% chance and that's if Rod Carey takes the entire OSU team to a strip club the night before and gets them hammered to the point of recreating "the hangover"in Columbus and half their team doesn't show up to the game and the ones that do are still hungover or PSD (Pants $h1tt1ng Drunk)

(07-19-2015 11:06 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  ACC
37-19
21-19 without FCS games (16 FCS games!!)
22 games against P5/ND

The high number of FCS games is an artifact of changing from 9 to 8 conference games late in scheduling.

Also, if those are Vegas lines, I'd drop some money on many of those ACC lines. UNC O/U at 8 wins? Seriously? Where the hell do all these UNC Coastal NUMERO UNO!11111111 people come from every preseason? I'm going to have to resume drinking reflexively any time UNC is talked up in the preseason. The lines on GT, Clemson, Louisville, VT, and NCST are also appealing.

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

Not for a while you won't... maybe if NIU and Toledo leave the MAC

None of these people making predictions know what is going to happen. They can't predict, which teams will suffer key injuries, or which players will get arrested, or even the weather in which all of the games will be played. They are just guessing, and many guess based on last season's performances. That isn't ideal either. Players graduate, and new stars emerge. There just isn't enough science in any of their formulas.

As far as I'm concerned, every conference is 0-0. We will start seeing which is stronger once the games kickoff.

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Makes sense. They haver more teams than the other G5's. If you will notice, they have more OOC games than any other G5. Even some of the 14 team P5 conferences don't have as many OOC games because they play 9 game conference schedules.

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

UTSA schedule

Kansas St in the Alamodome
@ Arizona
@ Oklahoma St.

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

The MAC is the same way. You could just as easily say that we'll move past the C-USA in a year or so (or AAC/MWC down the line) if our worst programs either become better relative to the worst teams in other G5 conferences or our best programs become regular access bowl contenders. Our problem is that we have no dominant program, just a clump of decent G5 teams at the top next to some very bad ones in the cellar; it's the same with basketball too.