(07-19-2015 11:00 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

The MAC is the same way. You could just as easily say that we'll move past the C-USA in a year or so (or AAC/MWC down the line) if our worst programs either become better relative to the worst teams in other G5 conferences or our best programs become regular access bowl contenders. Our problem is that we have no dominant program, just a clump of decent G5 teams at the top next to some very bad ones in the cellar; it's the same with basketball too.

NIU isn't a dominant football program? Tell that to all the P5 teams they've beaten recently

(07-19-2015 11:20 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:00 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

The MAC is the same way. You could just as easily say that we'll move past the C-USA in a year or so (or AAC/MWC down the line) if our worst programs either become better relative to the worst teams in other G5 conferences or our best programs become regular access bowl contenders. Our problem is that we have no dominant program, just a clump of decent G5 teams at the top next to some very bad ones in the cellar; it's the same with basketball too.

NIU isn't a dominant football program? Tell that to all the P5 teams they've beaten recently

Should've rephrased that as "nationally relevant every year." NIU has been dominant yes, but not on a national scale for a prolonged period like late 90's Marshall. We need another team as big as Marshall was.

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

That's right.

The MAC more than other G5 leagues goes more in cycles. Once in a while you'll have an abnormal number of MAC teams good at one time. More common even is a week where they'll pick up 4-5 P5 wins with other close calls to only go flat the next week.

The MAC is very swingy. They can do nothing and then suprise you with an elite 8, CWS, or a top 25 football ranking with no history what so ever. Then you will have a bunch of schools in a different conference will be more steady in having good seasons but never attain those heights in any of those sports.

Why is that? Lots of reasons but one is probably the fact the MAC is a common incubator for young and upcoming coaches. When a MAC school gets a Saban or Meyer at the helm for instance the school does really well and then they lose the coach and fade to obscurity. Other conferences get this too of course but the MAC gets this a lot.

Is this better than being more steady? I guess it depends on the fan.

MAC schools are all very budget minded.

They don't try to out spend each other but just enough to be competitive. If they have more money after that they push to reduce reliance on student fees. Unlike the Rutgers model where they try to inflate themselves to look like they generate more money than they really do.

The result is MAC school's don't fortify their successful run with a highly paid head coach. Traditionally speaking. That is starting to change. WMU's coach was bumped up to an 800,000 salary after good recruiting classes.

(07-19-2015 03:41 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

Not for a while you won't... maybe if NIU and Toledo leave the MAC

IMO a game last season between Georgia Southern and NIU would have been pick-em on a neutral field, and I wouldn't discount what the Eagles are going to bring to the Sun Belt. Those folks in Statesboro don't tolerate losing and they are going to force the rest of the Sun Belt to either keep up or be left behind. We are talking about a program who since reinstating their program in 1982 has had three losing seasons and every time had a new HC the next season. You simply do not lose in Statesboro.

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

(07-19-2015 11:20 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:00 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

The MAC is the same way. You could just as easily say that we'll move past the C-USA in a year or so (or AAC/MWC down the line) if our worst programs either become better relative to the worst teams in other G5 conferences or our best programs become regular access bowl contenders. Our problem is that we have no dominant program, just a clump of decent G5 teams at the top next to some very bad ones in the cellar; it's the same with basketball too.

NIU isn't a dominant football program? Tell that to all the P5 teams they've beaten recently

Marshall says you are not.....so does 52-23

(07-19-2015 06:13 PM)SApuro Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

UTSA schedule

Kansas St in the Alamodome
@ Arizona
@ Oklahoma St.

0-3. 21 more CUSA vs P5 losses to go to make it 0-24.

(07-19-2015 11:06 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Here are the over-under win totals for each team in 2015.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...win-totals

Because conference records always add up to .500, we can derive the projected non-conference records for each league:

SEC, 49-7, 11 games against P5/ND
Pac 12, 28-9, 10 games against P5/ND
Big 12, 23-7, 8 games against P5/ND
Big 10, 40-16, 17 games against P5/ND
ACC, 37-19, 22 games against P5/ND

If you go one step further and assume that all of the losses are against P5 teams (i.e. the P5's win all FCS and G5 games - not likely, but bear with me a moment), we get this:

SEC: 4-7 vs P5/ND
Pac 12: 1-9 vs. P5/ND
Big 12: 1-7 vs. P5/ND
Big 10: 1-16 vs P5/ND
ACC: 3-19 vs. P5/ND

1. this is not possible, but
2. this really highlights why the SEC (32 games vs G5, or about 3/4 of their FBS games), Big XII (14 games vs. G5, or 2/3), B1G (32 games vs. G5, or 2/3) and Pac-12 (19 games, or 2/3) are picked to have higher FBS win% than the ACC (which plays 18 games vs. G5, less than 1/2 of their total FBS games)

Apples and Oranges! The SEC win% is particularly inflated - at least the other 3 P5s play 1/3 of their OOC games against other P5s!

It isn't the FCS games, guys... it's the lack of P5 games!

(07-20-2015 08:01 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 01:05 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:38 AM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  So CUSA plays more P5s than any other conference.

Yeah, it's call being the sacrificial lamb. I wonder how many of those games are home games for the G5 team?

(07-19-2015 11:20 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:00 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:36 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  The MAC's bowl record seems to foreshadow how our next season is about to go. In the 2011-12 season we went 4-1 and the next season we did very well, capped off by NIU's Orange Bowl appearance. For 2012-13 we went 2-5 and were relatively meh the next year, and unsurprisingly our 0-5 record in 2013-14 hinted at our awful play last fall. This past year we went 2-3, so the projection above is probably accurate; we'll beat out the Belt like usual but won't make too many waves elsewhere, maybe we'll come close to the C-USA.

We've beaten you guys out before and will do it again. We've just got some bad teams that have to improve significantly right now.

The MAC is the same way. You could just as easily say that we'll move past the C-USA in a year or so (or AAC/MWC down the line) if our worst programs either become better relative to the worst teams in other G5 conferences or our best programs become regular access bowl contenders. Our problem is that we have no dominant program, just a clump of decent G5 teams at the top next to some very bad ones in the cellar; it's the same with basketball too.

NIU isn't a dominant football program? Tell that to all the P5 teams they've beaten recently

Marshall says you are not.....so does 52-23

ok. Enjoy your league spiraling down the drain. You had 1 good game against a depleted NIU team buddy, i expect your team to come crashing down here with Cato now rotting on the Browns practice squad. NIU brings virtually their entire team back without injuries this year, but we don't have the luxury of using non AQs like you do.

(07-20-2015 08:45 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-19-2015 11:06 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Here are the over-under win totals for each team in 2015.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...win-totals

Because conference records always add up to .500, we can derive the projected non-conference records for each league:

SEC, 49-7, 11 games against P5/ND
Pac 12, 28-9, 10 games against P5/ND
Big 12, 23-7, 8 games against P5/ND
Big 10, 40-16, 17 games against P5/ND
ACC, 37-19, 22 games against P5/ND

If you go one step further and assume that all of the losses are against P5 teams (i.e. the P5's win all FCS and G5 games - not likely, but bear with me a moment), we get this:

SEC: 4-7 vs P5/ND
Pac 12: 1-9 vs. P5/ND
Big 12: 1-7 vs. P5/ND
Big 10: 1-16 vs P5/ND
ACC: 3-19 vs. P5/ND

1. this is not possible, but
2. this really highlights why the SEC (32 games vs G5, or about 3/4 of their FBS games), Big XII (14 games vs. G5, or 2/3), B1G (32 games vs. G5, or 2/3) and Pac-12 (19 games, or 2/3) are picked to have higher FBS win% than the ACC (which plays 18 games vs. G5, less than 1/2 of their total FBS games)

Apples and Oranges! The SEC win% is particularly inflated - at least the other 3 P5s play 1/3 of their OOC games against other P5s!

It isn't the FCS games, guys... it's the lack of P5 games!

For comparison's sake, let's look at the projected records vs last year's actual results.

........2015.....2014

SEC...49-7.....48-7
PAC...28-9.....31-6
B12...23-7.....22-8
B10...40-16...42-14
ACC...37-19...42-14

The biggest projected difference is in the ACC, which is expected by at least one other publication to go 1-5 against an improved Notre Dame (vs 2-2 last year) with a total of five additional P5 opponents this year. Last year's records vs the P5 +ND:

SEC 5-6
PAC 8-3
B12 4-6
B10 6-11
ACC 10-7

As Hokie's post points out, the SEC fattened up on G5 opponents last year, going 29-1. Only the Big Ten (25-3) came close to that win total, with all 3 of their losses coming against the MAC.

In aggregate, P5 conferences were 100-15 against G5 opponents and 54-1 against the FCS in 2014.

The SEC plays 13 OOC games in 2015 in which there is some risk of losing. Five of those games are at home (3 of them annual rivalry home/home games - SC-Clemson, Florida-FSU and Kentucky-Louisville). Tennessee hosts Oklahoma and Arkansas hosts Texas Tech.

Three are true road games: Georgia-Ga Tech, Vandy-Houston and LSU-Syracuse.

The other five are neutral (sort of) site games: Texas A&M-Arizona St in Houston, Missouri-BYU in Kansas City, South Carolina-UNC in Charlotte, Alabama-Wisconsin at Jerry World and Auburn-Louisville in Atlanta.

You have to hand it to the SEC. They are clearly winning the scheduling game. It's why they have the weakest OOC schedule of all the power conferences every year.

(07-20-2015 10:29 AM)ken d Wrote:  The SEC plays 13 OOC games in 2015 in which there is some risk of losing. Five of those games are at home (3 of them annual rivalry home/home games - SC-Clemson, Florida-FSU and Kentucky-Louisville). Tennessee hosts Oklahoma and Arkansas hosts Texas Tech.

I think you need to add Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt to your list.