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Bear in mind we are WMU fans. We are not really used to high expectations at all, little in our history tells us to expect more.

And, history is a terrible thing to try to beat as well. We are the type to say we play a good game, we win a few big ones we can point to in the past, we play hard, we don't give up, we recruit good kids, we expect a lot from the student athlete side of it, good citizens, good students, clean play, blah blah blah. That is all good.

But it won't be often the seasoned WMU fan will stick its neck out and say the expectation is to win the toss up games. We don't really expect to beat Toledo or NIU on the road. We know Air Force beat us with the same game Georgia Southern plays. GS is a long trip, MSU and Ohio State are out of the question, NIU and Toledo are on the road. 12-5 = 7. Somewhere else we stumble.

What realistic WMU fan would see a 6-6 record as a pretty good season. I'd say most think that is the starting point. 4 games in, ask again.

BUT given the new regime, good level of talent on hand, third year in the system, heads screwed on real tight, maybe we could stick our toe in the water of elite football and say 7 wins with a perky smile, and try to pretend we believe it. Maybe a bowl again, dare we expect a win there, 8 wins total?

This article is a mess


I have a question for you QB coaches out there. Manning is highly regarded for his ability to diagnose defenses. At WMU, our OC uses big picture boards, and the whole offense seemingly checks to him before plays. Does this hinder ZT's mental development?

(07-26-2015 09:24 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  I have a question for you QB coaches out there. Manning is highly regarded for his ability to diagnose defenses. At WMU, our OC uses big picture boards, and the whole offense seemingly checks to him before plays. Does this hinder ZT's mental development?

The prevailing wisdom in NFL is that No-Huddle offenses where the play is called from the sideline does slow a QB's development toward next level, especially if they never go under center (UC).

This is because formations-motions-shifts are limited, QBs do not change plays at the line (done for them from sideline), and have very few-simple passing concepts to master.

BTW I know one college team whose picture boards mean absolutely nothing, they are there only to distract opponents trying to steal signals. Formations-plays are actually signaled in by coaches and backup QBs.

(07-25-2015 10:24 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  Bear in mind we are WMU fans. We are not really used to high expectations at all, little in our history tells us to expect more.

And, history is a terrible thing to try to beat as well. We are the type to say we play a good game, we win a few big ones we can point to in the past, we play hard, we don't give up, we recruit good kids, we expect a lot from the student athlete side of it, good citizens, good students, clean play, blah blah blah. That is all good.

But it won't be often the seasoned WMU fan will stick its neck out and say the expectation is to win the toss up games. We don't really expect to beat Toledo or NIU on the road. We know Air Force beat us with the same game Georgia Southern plays. GS is a long trip, MSU and Ohio State are out of the question, NIU and Toledo are on the road. 12-5 = 7. Somewhere else we stumble.

What realistic WMU fan would see a 6-6 record as a pretty good season. I'd say most think that is the starting point. 4 games in, ask again.

BUT given the new regime, good level of talent on hand, third year in the system, heads screwed on real tight, maybe we could stick our toe in the water of elite football and say 7 wins with a perky smile, and try to pretend we believe it. Maybe a bowl again, dare we expect a win there, 8 wins total?

The course of a season is a process of growth and adjustment. But by every known metric WMU's starting point is as was advertised by Coach Fleck and his exuberant supporters well ahead of where it was when he came on board. Aside from key injuries or suspensions the talent base and pool is there to win 9 games. The program has established that playing on the road is not the Achilles heel it is for some. Others outside the program with no emotional connections have populated awards lists with Broncos. I understand that the lists are often devoid of context but based on objective statistical data. Figures lie and liars figure. But 2 years ago and even last year other than Corey Davis, no one was remotely considered. Not the case now.

My position isn't that WMU should win 9, must win 9 or hopes win 9. But based on this staff's ability to stay on task and grow the program as they envisioned it, recruited accordingly and the talent has played out to the extent it has (road wins included) aside of protecting one's own ego there is no logical reason to assume 9 wins isn't a distinct possibility.

This reminds me of the nervous Nellie mentality I read re the 2012-13 men's basketball program. No one wanted to objectively envision (even mid way through the season with evidence in hand) that if utilized properly with a killer's mentality that WMU could and should have won the MAC. "No, we're too young!" "Akron has that 7'er." "We cant handle that match up zone of EMU!" "But that BSU game is on the road!"

That team underachieved in my opinion in part due to Hawkins unwillingness to put the pedal to the metal. Too cautious. Trying to incrementally progress as the season went on. Typical of Hawk. Getting to the final 4 of the CBI or whatever that tournament was shouldn't have been a surprise. The surprise was that the talent wasn't unleashed to win the MAC and MACC. When you look at the following year where WMU went to the NCAA after winning the MAC and MACC they had less talent.

But Fleck is a Bronco of a different color. Progress is indeed made throughout the season but there isn't this slow and steady approach. You have horses? You let them loose! Fleck does. Fleck has. That's the difference between programs. 9 wins is objectively a reasonable expectation (aside from key injuries). WMU doesn't have the depth of MSU or OSU.

(07-26-2015 11:24 AM)gobaseline Wrote:  

(07-25-2015 10:24 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  Bear in mind we are WMU fans. We are not really used to high expectations at all, little in our history tells us to expect more.

And, history is a terrible thing to try to beat as well. We are the type to say we play a good game, we win a few big ones we can point to in the past, we play hard, we don't give up, we recruit good kids, we expect a lot from the student athlete side of it, good citizens, good students, clean play, blah blah blah. That is all good.

But it won't be often the seasoned WMU fan will stick its neck out and say the expectation is to win the toss up games. We don't really expect to beat Toledo or NIU on the road. We know Air Force beat us with the same game Georgia Southern plays. GS is a long trip, MSU and Ohio State are out of the question, NIU and Toledo are on the road. 12-5 = 7. Somewhere else we stumble.

What realistic WMU fan would see a 6-6 record as a pretty good season. I'd say most think that is the starting point. 4 games in, ask again.

BUT given the new regime, good level of talent on hand, third year in the system, heads screwed on real tight, maybe we could stick our toe in the water of elite football and say 7 wins with a perky smile, and try to pretend we believe it. Maybe a bowl again, dare we expect a win there, 8 wins total?

The course of a season is a process of growth and adjustment. But by every known metric WMU's starting point is as was advertised by Coach Fleck and his exuberant supporters well ahead of where it was when he came on board. Aside from key injuries or suspensions the talent base and pool is there to win 9 games. The program has established that playing on the road is not the Achilles heel it is for some. Others outside the program with no emotional connections have populated awards lists with Broncos. I understand that the lists are often devoid of context but based on objective statistical data. Figures lie and liars figure. But 2 years ago and even last year other than Corey Davis, no one was remotely considered. Not the case now.

My position isn't that WMU should win 9, must win 9 or hopes win 9. But based on this staff's ability to stay on task and grow the program as they envisioned it, recruited accordingly and the talent has played out to the extent it has (road wins included) aside of protecting one's own ego there is no logical reason to assume 9 wins isn't a distinct possibility.

This reminds me of the nervous Nellie mentality I read re the 2012-13 men's basketball program. No one wanted to objectively envision (even mid way through the season with evidence in hand) that if utilized properly with a killer's mentality that WMU could and should have won the MAC. "No, we're too young!" "Akron has that 7'er." "We cant handle that match up zone of EMU!" "But that BSU game is on the road!"

That team underachieved in my opinion in part due to Hawkins unwillingness to put the pedal to the metal. Too cautious. Trying to incrementally progress as the season went on. Typical of Hawk. Getting to the final 4 of the CBI or whatever that tournament was shouldn't have been a surprise. The surprise was that the talent wasn't unleashed to win the MAC and MACC. When you look at the following year where WMU went to the NCAA after winning the MAC and MACC they had less talent.

But Fleck is a Bronco of a different color. Progress is indeed made throughout the season but there isn't this slow and steady approach. You have horses? You let them loose! Fleck does. Fleck has. That's the difference between programs. 9 wins is objectively a reasonable expectation (aside from key injuries). WMU doesn't have the depth of MSU or OSU.

I'd be willing to turn them loose early v. Georgia Southern. That is the pivotal game if you are looking at 9 wins. Then you've kind of got to run the MAC table and knock off either Toledo or NIU at the end of a very long road. Possible? For sure. But not what the historical WMU fan sees as a reasonable expectation.

Turn them loose against MSU? Not exactly crazy talk, but close. I can see it happening though. Would be an interesting moment in WMU history.

(07-26-2015 12:42 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  

(07-26-2015 11:24 AM)gobaseline Wrote:  

(07-25-2015 10:24 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  Bear in mind we are WMU fans. We are not really used to high expectations at all, little in our history tells us to expect more.

And, history is a terrible thing to try to beat as well. We are the type to say we play a good game, we win a few big ones we can point to in the past, we play hard, we don't give up, we recruit good kids, we expect a lot from the student athlete side of it, good citizens, good students, clean play, blah blah blah. That is all good.

But it won't be often the seasoned WMU fan will stick its neck out and say the expectation is to win the toss up games. We don't really expect to beat Toledo or NIU on the road. We know Air Force beat us with the same game Georgia Southern plays. GS is a long trip, MSU and Ohio State are out of the question, NIU and Toledo are on the road. 12-5 = 7. Somewhere else we stumble.

What realistic WMU fan would see a 6-6 record as a pretty good season. I'd say most think that is the starting point. 4 games in, ask again.

BUT given the new regime, good level of talent on hand, third year in the system, heads screwed on real tight, maybe we could stick our toe in the water of elite football and say 7 wins with a perky smile, and try to pretend we believe it. Maybe a bowl again, dare we expect a win there, 8 wins total?

The course of a season is a process of growth and adjustment. But by every known metric WMU's starting point is as was advertised by Coach Fleck and his exuberant supporters well ahead of where it was when he came on board. Aside from key injuries or suspensions the talent base and pool is there to win 9 games. The program has established that playing on the road is not the Achilles heel it is for some. Others outside the program with no emotional connections have populated awards lists with Broncos. I understand that the lists are often devoid of context but based on objective statistical data. Figures lie and liars figure. But 2 years ago and even last year other than Corey Davis, no one was remotely considered. Not the case now.

My position isn't that WMU should win 9, must win 9 or hopes win 9. But based on this staff's ability to stay on task and grow the program as they envisioned it, recruited accordingly and the talent has played out to the extent it has (road wins included) aside of protecting one's own ego there is no logical reason to assume 9 wins isn't a distinct possibility.

This reminds me of the nervous Nellie mentality I read re the 2012-13 men's basketball program. No one wanted to objectively envision (even mid way through the season with evidence in hand) that if utilized properly with a killer's mentality that WMU could and should have won the MAC. "No, we're too young!" "Akron has that 7'er." "We cant handle that match up zone of EMU!" "But that BSU game is on the road!"

That team underachieved in my opinion in part due to Hawkins unwillingness to put the pedal to the metal. Too cautious. Trying to incrementally progress as the season went on. Typical of Hawk. Getting to the final 4 of the CBI or whatever that tournament was shouldn't have been a surprise. The surprise was that the talent wasn't unleashed to win the MAC and MACC. When you look at the following year where WMU went to the NCAA after winning the MAC and MACC they had less talent.

But Fleck is a Bronco of a different color. Progress is indeed made throughout the season but there isn't this slow and steady approach. You have horses? You let them loose! Fleck does. Fleck has. That's the difference between programs. 9 wins is objectively a reasonable expectation (aside from key injuries). WMU doesn't have the depth of MSU or OSU.

I'd be willing to turn them loose early v. Georgia Southern. That is the pivotal game if you are looking at 9 wins. Then you've kind of got to run the MAC table and knock off either Toledo or NIU at the end of a very long road. Possible? For sure. But not what the historical WMU fan sees as a reasonable expectation.

Turn them loose against MSU? Not exactly crazy talk, but close. I can see it happening though. Would be an interesting moment in WMU history.

There is nothing to lose by doing so.

The kids that commit to WMU aren't choosing them over MSU so losing and losing big doesn't matter.

But I don't think WMU wins against Sparty by playing cautious and not to lose. MSU has a talented and seasoned QB. I don't know anything else about them other than on the flip side WMU again isn't particularly stout up front defensively enabling WMU to pressure the QB or effectively stopping a downhill ground game for 4Q's.

Play to your strengths. Use the depth available on D. Make use of field position with Haldeman and Schroeder. Control the clock with a running game making MSU play D employing the talented and deep OL. Surprise MSU by using the TE. Stopping the run (bringing them in) and taking away Davis (deep threat) creates space between 7-12 yards. Move the chains and let the pressure be put on MSU.

Quote:One thing we seem to forget is how well our team did play on the road last year. I'm not as worried about the road games with this coaching staff. They have the team prepared and focused so in some respects I think the advantage is ours.

Yeah, we won 5 road games last year but who were they?
- Idaho (1-10)
- Miami-OH (2-10)
- Ball State (5-7) - A team in transition; we transitioned during the game which was good
- CMU (7-6) - Revenge for last year's home loss; Great for rivalry curse reasons, etc
- BGSU (8-6) - MAC East Champs but easiest division in FBS; New coach & starting QB out practically whole season; still great win

I would say from that, yeah, we can handle the road with what we got pretty well. But that doesn't affect the other team can't handle their home really well, and it isn't enough to think that we handle road games like neutral territory.

Quote:We should have a better team this year.

We should have a better team, yes -- with Franklin at full strength. But NIU's going to be Significantly better, and if Toledo isn't cursed by injuries like they were last season -- yes, they too will have a bigger jump than us from last year->this year. That's not to mention BGSU with their coach going into his 2nd year (we all know how that is a nice step-up), plus their original Great QB Matt Johnson coming back who was injured last year -- look out. BSU is going to improve alot, too -- but thankfully we have BGSU & BSU at home. Ohio's going to get a little better, too. EMU will be too, but that's nothing (lol).

With that said, NIU & Toledo going from home games to road games + their at LEAST as good of improvement if not More than us -- is going to nix us handling road games pretty well. All other teams don't stay the same while our own team either goes up or down (up in our case). Other teams can go up and down as well, and CMU is about the only team who will be not as good. It's going to be a good year for the MAC. So given that....

Quote:We should be able to go to Georgia Southern, NIU, or Toledo, and win.

No, that should not be expected. GA-Southern is not going to be as good as last year, although with a good coaching staff by end of season they may be comparable. But it's a Long road trip out there, and they are going to be good.

Unbiased Most-Likely Expectation: 0-3 (but 1 being barn-burner either-way; 1 we-should-have-won; the other very possibly-dammit; the other, "yeah, where were we?")
Optimistic Expectation: 1-2 (This is where the "we should be able to" comes in)
Overly-Optimistic but Wrong on Expectation if no injuries/drama is had for any team: 2-1
Same odds as us expecting to beat MSU and compete down to the 4th Q against OSU: 3-0

Quote:What realistic WMU fan would see a 6-6 record as a pretty good season. I'd say most think that is the starting point. 4 games in, ask again.

Good call. At this point, I would say Too Optimistic would be "7 or 8" wins. I would say "par" would be 6 wins. "Kinda optimistic" would be "6 or 7" wins, and that's fine.

Quote:aside of protecting one's own ego there is no logical reason to assume 9 wins isn't a distinct possibility.

Eliminating good luck out of the way (see last year's NIU team's luck) which includes the ball bouncing our way, no injuries on us, injuries on competitors -- No, I don't think going only 1-loss in the MAC or running the table in the MAC but losing to GA-South -- is a distinct possibility. It's a far-fetched possibility. POSSIBLE. About as possible as beating MSU in and of itself. Hey, CMU's done it several times before. AT MSU. It's not impossible. If we beat upset MSU, then I think 9 wins will be a distinct possibility (even if you wouldn't count that as a win).