(07-25-2015 05:59 PM)Cucumber Salad Wrote: 9 wins was the objective prediction based on the prediction of incoming and production of maturing recruiting classes,road wins last year and the fact the Toledo and NIU games were winnable.
When you say "was," I'm assuming you mean that's your objective prediction for the season. The Vegas sports books opened up with 8 as the over/under for Bronco wins this year.
I'm not entirely against you here, as I think this Bronco team is capable of winning nine if all goes well, but to say nine wins should be the barometer of success for this team this year is either picking and choosing - or, worse, ignoring - facts. Yes, this team brings back a lot of talent from last season and has recruited better. It's also fact that this isn't a senior-heavy team (the majority of the talent will be sophomores, redshirt freshmen, or true freshmen) and the schedule is indisputably much tougher than a season ago.
The combined 2014 records and winning percentages of all seven Bronco road opponents last season: 33-77 (.429) Look at the opponents of the five road games the Broncos won last season, and it's even uglier: 23-62 (.370). BG and CMU were good road wins, but there's no question last year's team had a relatively easy road schedule.
Now examine the 2014 records and winning percentages of all six Bronco road opponents this coming season: 51-27 (.654) That's
including 2-10 EMU. Just looking at NIU, Toledo, and Georgia Southern, they were a
combined 29-10 (.744) a season ago. Yes, NIU and Toledo were winnable games a season ago and are winnable this year if we play well, but to act like the expectation should be to win nine games minimum taking all of that into consideration is not realistic. And again, I don't disagree that the potential is there IF all goes well - I battled Doo here repeatedly a couple weeks back arguing for a higher ceiling for this team - but this team is most likely a year away from where it's a fair expectation level to reach that point.
And, should we go on to have a great year (nine wins plus), I doubt you'll see many - if any - here pounding there chests saying
Oh yeah, I called that one back in the summer! I may have missed it, but other than you and Major I haven't seen anyone else saying nine wins should be the expectation this year.