1. There is no real news to speculate about.

2. There won't be any news to speculate about until there is actual movement. This next round of realignment will be handled basically behind the networks' doors and then announced by the conferences and it will happen when all of the primary players are in agreement as to what will happen. So, unlike in the past when there were rumors, feeling out meetings, trial balloons, and leaks designed to familiarize fan bases with the concepts about to transpire, this time we will move from utter boredom to abject surprise. There won't be enough time to have much before hand discussion if any.

3. It may take a long long time before everyone is in agreement. So don't hold your breath while waiting for the big announcement.

4. The Big 10 may not be planning anything prior to their contract negotiations. They may just place a renegotiation clause in the new contract so that they can move when the time is right instead of having to grab somebody quickly that they might otherwise have passed on.

5. There are really only 4 to 6 schools that the SEC would like to have and we will be in direct competition with the Big 10 for almost all of them. And 4 of those schools are the cornerstones of their respective conferences so movement isn't likely anyway.

6. The Big 12 isn't going to expand. There is not enough value among candidates for them to expand. So the endless speculation threads may be fun, but they aren't substantive, IMO.

7. Truly there are some court issues that must be settled before further consolidation, or realignment, or changes in structure, or enhanced playoffs can be decided upon.

8. Any excitement arising in the interim will be generated by actual G5 movement.

9. The ACCN can't be a game changer if it is always out in the future. I think the rumor, or talk of it, is as much of a ploy to maintain status quo in the ACC as expansion and CCG talk is to maintain status quo in the Big 12. I think discussion of both pleases P.T. Barnum to no end, "a sucker is born every minute."

10. The PACN won't gain traction unless they let a network buy in. The problem is that if they don't gain traction soon no network may want to buy in.

So folks it is what it is, .....slow, at least until something actually happens. And when it does you will be caught totally by surprise with something big moving along the bottom of your sports channel screen on the "breaking news" crawler.

It won't come from the Dude, Fluguar, Yoda, or any of those buffoons. It won't come from the more creative trollsters like Miko. It won't come from realignment junkies like me, or any of our other such posters here.

So have fun with the endless speculation, let your imaginations run wild, because when something actually does happen things will likely be final for a long time to come and the only threads we will have then will be second guessing threads.

Gone will be the "our conference academics will win all the prizes" threads by the Big 10 posters, and gone will be all of the "we are cohesive and stick together" threads by the ACC posters which also along with some Big 12 posters have all of the fact twisting threads about how they aren't really behind the curve in earnings and will magically catch or pass the Big 10 and SEC because of some Rube Goldberg contraption of a plan. Also gone will be the "we are the superior sports conference" by SEC posters. I just wish we had some PAC trendy threads to mention or criticize, but then Wedge is a realist and a nice guy. But to give the ACC guys a break their posters take a back seat to the Spin doctors of the Big 12 who no matter the crisis, or the occasional stampede, like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, manage to stand on our street corners and shout, "Remain Calm! All Is Well!"

So I'm making a promise to you guys. Anyone who starts a truly interesting and discussion worthy thread (that are not of the genres mentioned above) is going to get 3 rep points from me. I just wish we had a Perry Mason Emoticon to paste on anyone's post who was strictly spinning the facts in defense of their hopeless client/conference's postion.

Interesting stats, investigative type articles, and other interesting stuff would truly help. Take a page from CommuterBob. He does the best job of just about anyone here in digging up good discussion topics. Maize is in that category as well. Have at it! And let's find some nuggets during our time in the wastelands of information.

I'm not worried about whatever perceived slow down is going on. To me it is just the reactionary period following that rush of propaganda put out by ESPN in regards to new division rules.

ESPN made it very obvious what rule changes they prefer and what ones they don't. Now folks are bunkered up and on the phones.

Of all things needed by a realignment speculator, patience tops the list.

For this fan of an A-10 and SBC school....Slow is good.

There are some old "University of British Columbia to the Pac-10" threads on the Cal message boards, if things are really that slow. While you're there you can poke fun at our fans for being nostalgic for the Pac-8, if you find those threads, even though the Pac-10 lasted several years longer than the Pac-8 and nearly all of us were in middle school or younger when the Arizona schools joined.

(05-16-2015 12:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
1. There is no real news to speculate about.

2. There won't be any news to speculate about until there is actual movement. This next round of realignment will be handled basically behind the networks' doors and then announced by the conferences and it will happen when all of the primary players are in agreement as to what will happen. So, unlike in the past when there were rumors, feeling out meetings, trial balloons, and leaks designed to familiarize fan bases with the concepts about to transpire, this time we will move from utter boredom to abject surprise. There won't be enough time to have much before hand discussion if any.

3. It may take a long long time before everyone is in agreement. So don't hold your breath while waiting for the big announcement.

4. The Big 10 may not be planning anything prior to their contract negotiations. They may just place a renegotiation clause in the new contract so that they can move when the time is right instead of having to grab somebody quickly that they might otherwise have passed on.

5. There are really only 4 to 6 schools that the SEC would like to have and we will be in direct competition with the Big 10 for almost all of them. And 4 of those schools are the cornerstones of their respective conferences so movement isn't likely anyway.

6. The Big 12 isn't going to expand. There is not enough value among candidates for them to expand. So the endless speculation threads may be fun, but they aren't substantive, IMO.

7. Truly there are some court issues that must be settled before further consolidation, or realignment, or changes in structure, or enhanced playoffs can be decided upon.

8. Any excitement arising in the interim will be generated by actual G5 movement.

9. The ACCN can't be a game changer if it is always out in the future. I think the rumor, or talk of it, is as much of a ploy to maintain status quo in the ACC as expansion and CCG talk is to maintain status quo in the Big 12. I think discussion of both pleases P.T. Barnum to no end, "a sucker is born every minute."

10. The PACN won't gain traction unless they let a network buy in. The problem is that if they don't gain traction soon no network may want to buy in.

So folks it is what it is, .....slow, at least until something actually happens. And when it does you will be caught totally by surprise with something big moving along the bottom of your sports channel screen on the "breaking news" crawler.

It won't come from the Dude, Fluguar, Yoda, or any of those buffoons. It won't come from the more creative trollsters like Miko. It won't come from realignment junkies like me, or any of our other such posters here.

So have fun with the endless speculation, let your imaginations run wild, because when something actually does happen things will likely be final for a long time to come and the only threads we will have then will be second guessing threads.

Gone will be the "our conference academics will win all the prizes" threads by the Big 10 posters, and gone will be all of the "we are cohesive and stick together" threads by the ACC posters which also along with some Big 12 posters have all of the fact twisting threads about how they aren't really behind the curve in earnings and will magically catch or pass the Big 10 and SEC because of some Rube Goldberg contraption of a plan. Also gone will be the "we are the superior sports conference" by SEC posters. I just wish we had some PAC trendy threads to mention or criticize, but then Wedge is a realist and a nice guy. But to give the ACC guys a break their posters take a back seat to the Spin doctors of the Big 12 who no matter the crisis, or the occasional stampede, like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, manage to stand on our street corners and shout, "Remain Calm! All Is Well!"

So I'm making a promise to you guys. Anyone who starts a truly interesting and discussion worthy thread (that are not of the genres mentioned above) is going to get 3 rep points from me. I just wish we had a Perry Mason Emoticon to paste on anyone's post who was strictly spinning the facts in defense of their hopeless client/conference's postion.

Interesting stats, investigative type articles, and other interesting stuff would truly help. Take a page from CommuterBob. He does the best job of just about anyone here in digging up good discussion topics. Maize is in that category as well. Have at it! And let's find some nuggets during our time in the wastelands of information.

who will post anything now? You basically said if you are a scumbag from the G5 I don't want to hear your BS delusions. You also already declared what the p5 conferences will and won't do and then wrapped it all up in a bow that says 'spare me any BS rumors'.

Are you serious? LOL

Let's get to the heart of the matter.

Major realignment occurs when markets go out of stasis.

It happened in the 50's and early 60's when the realization hit that a bus could travel more miles efficiently in a day than before the national highway system was improved and the mechanical reliability improved and air charter became financially viable. No longer were conferences oriented around very short bus trips since the range of a viable bus trip basically tripled and no longer was about who was easily reachable by train.

It happened in the 70's when the NCAA TV contract money became more valuable and teams were capped in the number of appearances so other members who had appearance value mattered while the system actually encouraged independence and we had the great era of independents.

It happened as the 80's closed out and we moved into the 90's when leagues had to negotiate their own TV.

It happened most recently because the way TV makes money changed from advertising based often on how many "could" watch in syndicated deals vs "actually" watch in national deals to a carriage fee economy.

We are moving back into balance. The CFP has 11 years left but we can be pretty confident the format today has at least five more years left because of the the other bowl contracts. Every P5 league is locked into long term deals except the Big 10's top tier.

The G5 may have some moves left in the adjustment process but barring some added Big 10 move ahead of the top tier deal being signed, the P5 ought to be at a stable point.

(05-16-2015 12:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So have fun with the endless speculation, let your imaginations run wild, because when something actually does happen things will likely be final for a long time to come and the only threads we will have then will be second guessing threads.

That will truly be a happy day.

(05-16-2015 01:30 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-16-2015 12:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  So have fun with the endless speculation, let your imaginations run wild, because when something actually does happen things will likely be final for a long time to come and the only threads we will have then will be second guessing threads.

That will truly be a happy day.

As Arkstfan notes, outside forces trigger change.

We've had that change and had lots of movement. The next change will be when the cable model changes. One thing I'm certain of is that conference networks will no longer be massive money makers when the current distortion of forced carriage goes away.

I don't see that happening soon. It will be a slow process. I expect the next big changes to be about 20 years out.

But we've still got the fallout from the last set of changes. There is going to be a lot of movement and realignment in the basketball conferences and probably in the G5 as well. And the lawsuits could trigger some additional realignment beyond the P5.

Jr has problems with facts that don't fit his belief that the Big 12 is somehow doomed.

The Big 12 will just keep laughing all the way to the bank.

And there's no way ESPN sets itself up for a massive lawsuit by getting too involved in realigning conferences.

Egos explain things a lot better than network conspiracies. ESPN can influence, but they don't dare lead.

JR, you need to learn to read better. When people don't buy your scenario your reading skills slacken and you starting inventing stuff with your imagination.

I've said Texas will make more than the SEC and Big 10 with the LHN. OU is making as much as the Big 10 now. But no one said Iowa St. would be once the SECN gets up and going and the Big 10 got their contract renewal. But the fact is, in 2014, Iowa St. did get more from the conference (when both conferences had individually owned Tier III) than anyone in the SEC did. And more than Nebraska. And more than anyone else in the big 10 excluding their BTN money. Those are absolute facts that have been proven by conference press releases and tax returns.

Additional facts. The Big 12 schools make considerably more revenue overall and have better attendance overall than the Pac and ACC schools. That's a simple fact as well. They also do exceptionally well in net revenue. Helps that, like the SEC and unlike the Pac and Big 10, they tend not to sponsor a lot of sports.

(05-16-2015 01:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  Jr has problems with facts that don't fit his belief that the Big 12 is somehow doomed.

The Big 12 will just keep laughing all the way to the bank.

And there's no way ESPN sets itself up for a massive lawsuit by getting too involved in realigning conferences.

Egos explain things a lot better than network conspiracies. ESPN can influence, but they don't dare lead.

If you truly believe the bolded, I have a bridge in NYC and have miles and miles of prime Arizona beachfront property to sell you.

Defconn

Bullet is a UK fan....that's all you need to know.

(05-16-2015 01:02 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  who will post anything now? You basically said if you are a scumbag from the G5 I don't want to hear your BS delusions. You also already declared what the p5 conferences will and won't do and then wrapped it all up in a bow that says 'spare me any BS rumors'.

Are you serious? LOL

Of course he is. He's a MOD and theirs is the only opinion that matters.

Any realignment that's going down in the next few years will likely be for the non-football conferenecs.

(05-16-2015 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  JR, you need to learn to read better. When people don't buy your scenario your reading skills slacken and you starting inventing stuff with your imagination.

I've said Texas will make more than the SEC and Big 10 with the LHN. OU is making as much as the Big 10 now. But no one said Iowa St. would be once the SECN gets up and going and the Big 10 got their contract renewal. But the fact is, in 2014, Iowa St. did get more from the conference (when both conferences had individually owned Tier III) than anyone in the SEC did. And more than Nebraska. And more than anyone else in the big 10 excluding their BTN money. Those are absolute facts that have been proven by conference press releases and tax returns.

Additional facts. The Big 12 schools make considerably more revenue overall and have better attendance overall than the Pac and ACC schools. That's a simple fact as well. They also do exceptionally well in net revenue. Helps that, like the SEC and unlike the Pac and Big 10, they tend not to sponsor a lot of sports.

Not really Bullet. ESPN is very very involved. The so called vetting an idea with the networks to see what something is worth is just a charade. What is really going on is the commissioner of whatever conferences says, "What will you pay us for this addition, you know ....in all likelihood, ....and of course just give us your best ball park estimate, wink, wink?" If ESPN is interested there is money for it. If they aren't, there isn't. Nobody takes anyone for which they aren't rewarded handsomely. Therefore the money controls the selection. Not much of an imagination is needed for that one, just the powers of observation and knowing what actually happens. You know Bullet, old cynics who are very familiar with how the real world operates seldom have good imaginations. Our problem is that not much at all ever surprises us. Twenty years of watching recruiting violations, another couple of decades in corporate life, and a couple of decades of non profit work and you've just about seen it all in business, institutions, charities, and religion. So if you've found my imagination enlighten me so that I might identify and enjoy it.

Instead what I have found is that many corporate types must sell themselves everyday on the legitimacy of what they are doing, in spite of all they witness to the contrary, because otherwise they simply couldn't live with themselves. They must maintain the perception of integrity, especially if they know they have none. Some of that is driven out of self preservation. Some of it is the corporate diligence of trying to maintain plausible deniability, and some of it is just plain hypocrisy. Then there are the truly naive who buy the whole sales job right up until the bitter end when they are cut with a few years to go and replaced by another young and naive person who works harder for even less. But hey whatever works to get you through another day, or week, or year "in this the best of all possible worlds." I believe in God (not religion), myself, most of my family, and some of my friends. Outside of that it's constant vigilance.

What is Miko speculating about? I'm sure he has some expansion news.

(05-16-2015 03:04 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Defconn

Bullet is a UK fan....that's all you need to know.

Yeah, I know. I was assuming he was talking from the (alleged) Texas portion of his a$$, and not UK.

(05-16-2015 12:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
1. There is no real news to speculate about.

2. There won't be any news to speculate about until there is actual movement. This next round of realignment will be handled basically behind the networks' doors and then announced by the conferences and it will happen when all of the primary players are in agreement as to what will happen. So, unlike in the past when there were rumors, feeling out meetings, trial balloons, and leaks designed to familiarize fan bases with the concepts about to transpire, this time we will move from utter boredom to abject surprise. There won't be enough time to have much before hand discussion if any.

3. It may take a long long time before everyone is in agreement. So don't hold your breath while waiting for the big announcement.

4. The Big 10 may not be planning anything prior to their contract negotiations. They may just place a renegotiation clause in the new contract so that they can move when the time is right instead of having to grab somebody quickly that they might otherwise have passed on.

5. There are really only 4 to 6 schools that the SEC would like to have and we will be in direct competition with the Big 10 for almost all of them. And 4 of those schools are the cornerstones of their respective conferences so movement isn't likely anyway.

6. The Big 12 isn't going to expand. There is not enough value among candidates for them to expand. So the endless speculation threads may be fun, but they aren't substantive, IMO.

7. Truly there are some court issues that must be settled before further consolidation, or realignment, or changes in structure, or enhanced playoffs can be decided upon.

8. Any excitement arising in the interim will be generated by actual G5 movement.

9. The ACCN can't be a game changer if it is always out in the future. I think the rumor, or talk of it, is as much of a ploy to maintain status quo in the ACC as expansion and CCG talk is to maintain status quo in the Big 12. I think discussion of both pleases P.T. Barnum to no end, "a sucker is born every minute."

10. The PACN won't gain traction unless they let a network buy in. The problem is that if they don't gain traction soon no network may want to buy in.

So folks it is what it is, .....slow, at least until something actually happens. And when it does you will be caught totally by surprise with something big moving along the bottom of your sports channel screen on the "breaking news" crawler.

It won't come from the Dude, Fluguar, Yoda, or any of those buffoons. It won't come from the more creative trollsters like Miko. It won't come from realignment junkies like me, or any of our other such posters here.

So have fun with the endless speculation, let your imaginations run wild, because when something actually does happen things will likely be final for a long time to come and the only threads we will have then will be second guessing threads.

Gone will be the "our conference academics will win all the prizes" threads by the Big 10 posters, and gone will be all of the "we are cohesive and stick together" threads by the ACC posters which also along with some Big 12 posters have all of the fact twisting threads about how they aren't really behind the curve in earnings and will magically catch or pass the Big 10 and SEC because of some Rube Goldberg contraption of a plan. Also gone will be the "we are the superior sports conference" by SEC posters. I just wish we had some PAC trendy threads to mention or criticize, but then Wedge is a realist and a nice guy. But to give the ACC guys a break their posters take a back seat to the Spin doctors of the Big 12 who no matter the crisis, or the occasional stampede, like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, manage to stand on our street corners and shout, "Remain Calm! All Is Well!"

So I'm making a promise to you guys. Anyone who starts a truly interesting and discussion worthy thread (that are not of the genres mentioned above) is going to get 3 rep points from me. I just wish we had a Perry Mason Emoticon to paste on anyone's post who was strictly spinning the facts in defense of their hopeless client/conference's postion.

Interesting stats, investigative type articles, and other interesting stuff would truly help. Take a page from CommuterBob. He does the best job of just about anyone here in digging up good discussion topics. Maize is in that category as well. Have at it! And let's find some nuggets during our time in the wastelands of information.

I have no problem with any of this.

Can you elaborate more on Item #7?

This is a *college sports* and realignment board. If realignment is dead for now, there's still a lot of college sports to talk about.

Realignment may be dead at the P5 level, but at the G5 and non-football levels, it could be a busy next few weeks. We still have the fallout of the NKU move to the Horizon, and there is the possibility of movement, even widespread movement, from the UAB situation.