Merry Christmas to all!!!!!

Damn it I love Selection Sunday.

Actually Merry Christmas Eve, Thursday is Christmas morning.

(03-15-2015 10:12 AM)dave416 Wrote:  Nice work - biggest quibble is actually Georgia St. in the play-in (assuming they win today). Any reason why they wouldn't be a 13-14 seed? Can't see them slotted behind Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Robert Morris, etc.

Fair point on Georgia State. Probably didn't spend enough time on the teams at the end of the bracket (especially that conference as the champion has yet to be decided). They probably won't be a 16 seed, much less in the play in game. I'll switch that for my final projection.

(03-15-2015 10:39 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I hope we dont draw Purdue in the opener. I'd rather play Iowa or tO$U.

If Ohio State is a single digit seed then non-conference SOS and beating good opponents doesn't really matter. The Buckeyes are on my list of teams that I hope get punished by the committee with a NIT bid or at best a first four spot. Out of all the Big Ten teams, I like their resume the least. Can you say non-conference SOS at 217, non-conference RPI at 64, 1-7 against the top 50, 3-9 versus teams that are still in the NCAA tournament conversation, 5-8 away from home, best wins away from were against Minnesota. But heck the Buckeyes were 18-2 at home, and 20-1 against teams no where close to playing in the tournament.

IU and Purdue both had poor non-conference SOS but at least they beat teams both in conference and out of conference play that are still in the mix on selection Sunday. Purdue was 6-6 against teams in the NCAA tournament mix while IU was 4-11; however, the Hoosiers did beat SMU, Maryland, and Butler.

I would perfectly be fine leaving all three Big Ten teams out of the tournament in favor of Old Dominion and Temple.

(03-15-2015 12:52 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 10:39 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I hope we dont draw Purdue in the opener. I'd rather play Iowa or tO$U.

If Ohio State is a single digit seed then non-conference SOS and beating good opponents doesn't really matter. The Buckeyes are on my list of teams that I hope get punished by the committee with a NIT bid or at best a first four spot. Out of all the Big Ten teams, I like their resume the least. Can you say non-conference SOS at 217, non-conference RPI at 64, 1-7 against the top 50, 3-9 versus teams that are still in the NCAA tournament conversation, 5-8 away from home, best wins away from were against Minnesota. But heck the Buckeyes were 18-2 at home, and 20-1 against teams no where close to playing in the tournament.

IU and Purdue both had poor non-conference SOS but at least they beat teams both in conference and out of conference play that are still in the mix on selection Sunday. Purdue was 6-6 against teams in the NCAA tournament mix while IU was 4-11; however, the Hoosiers did beat SMU, Maryland, and Butler.

I would perfectly be fine leaving all three Big Ten teams out of the tournament in favor of Old Dominion and Temple.

Didn't realize OSU resume was that bad. Agree completely with them not being a single digit seed, but they will be, because they are the great an mighty OSU!

Everyone I've seen has Ohio State a lock, no?

tOSU is a lock because they put butts in the seats and eyeballs on the TV. Their resume doesn't deserve to get in but they will.

Guessing they will be an 8/9 in Pittsburgh or Louisville.

Wouldn't be surprised if they are opposite with UC in the first game and UK will await the winner.

Imagine if UD or UC had the same resume...NIT for sure.

(03-15-2015 12:52 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I would perfectly be fine leaving all three Big Ten teams out of the tournament in favor of Old Dominion and Temple.

My issue with Old Dominion is that they've only got 1 RPI Top 50 win and nearly a half dozen bad losses. The same can be said about Ohio State as it relates to RPI Top 50 wins. The difference? OSU hasn't lost to anyone outside the Top 100 RPI.

At the end of the day, I'm someone who would weigh more heavily that you lost to bad teams.

It's why I have Texas in. They've lost a ton of games, but none of those are bad losses and half came to teams inside the RPI Top 10. Further, TEN of them came against RPI Top 25 teams.

(03-15-2015 01:30 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  tOSU is a lock because they put butts in the seats and eyeballs on the TV. Their resume doesn't deserve to get in but they will.

Why do so many of you believe that crap?

If you sit down and look at bubble teams, they all have flaws.

Some teams don't have marquee wins, but didn't lose to anyone they were supposed to beat.

Some teams have marquee wins, but lost games they had no business losing.

It has nothing to do with attendance or viewership numbers.

I care more about who a team beat and where they beat them than who they lost to.

How does it matter if they stubbed their toe with an inexplicable loss at some point? They won't face any of those teams with RPIs lower than 100 in the tourney so that stat really matters less. (Now if they repeatedly loss to bad teams that is a different story.)

I want to know if they beat, particularly on the road, teams with Tourney level RPIs. The best stat is Ws against the Top 50 RPI.

(03-15-2015 01:38 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 01:30 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  tOSU is a lock because they put butts in the seats and eyeballs on the TV. Their resume doesn't deserve to get in but they will.

Why do so many of you believe that crap?

If you sit down and look at bubble teams, they all have flaws.

Some teams don't have marquee wins, but didn't lose to anyone they were supposed to beat.

Some teams have marquee wins, but lost games they had no business losing.

It has nothing to do with attendance or viewership numbers.

So then why does tOSU still sit as an 8?
Why did they stay in the Top 25 for so long when they weren't worthy?
It's called bias.

(03-15-2015 01:38 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(03-15-2015 01:30 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  tOSU is a lock because they put butts in the seats and eyeballs on the TV. Their resume doesn't deserve to get in but they will.

Why do so many of you believe that crap?

If you sit down and look at bubble teams, they all have flaws.

Some teams don't have marquee wins, but didn't lose to anyone they were supposed to beat.

Some teams have marquee wins, but lost games they had no business losing.

It has nothing to do with attendance or viewership numbers.

I tend to value good wins over bad losses. Odds are that most goods teams will lose to a bad team but still win 85 percent or their games against "poor" teams. Good teams actually beat other good teams.

Kansas lost to Kansas State RPI 101
Wisconsin lost to Rutgers RPI 178
Arizona lost three sub 100 games
Iowa State lost two sub 100 games
Northern Iowa lost to Evansville RPI 120
VCU lost two games agains team RPI's 100 or lower.
Oklahoma lost four games against sub 100 RPI teams.
I could go on and list everyone in the top 40 who has lost to a "bad" team; however, that list would be rather long. Once again the "good" teams are still beating the "bad" teams at a high rate even if isn't perfection.

(03-15-2015 01:46 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  So then why does tOSU still sit as an 8?
Why did they stay in the Top 25 for so long when they weren't worthy?
It's called bias.

Go take a look at the teams on the bubble. When you're undefeated against RPI 100+ teams and every team on the bubble has multiple losses against the same teams, that's significant.

It's not exactly a bubble full of teams that are that impressive. In fact, a number of schools had to work themselves hard to pop their bubble this week.

As to the polls, they're meaningless.

(03-15-2015 01:48 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I tend to value good wins over bad losses. Odds are that most goods teams will lose to a bad team but still win 85 percent or their games against "poor" teams. Good teams actually beat other good teams.

Okay, then how could you be okay with ODU over OSU? Both have one big win @ home. OSU is 15-0 against RPI 100+ teams. ODU is 18-5 against RPI 100+ teams. Head-to-head, it's OSU in a landslide.

Edit: The teams you mentioned all have a large number of quality wins to offset their hiccups. That's not the case with most bubble teams. You're basically selecting the best of the worst, and losing games to RPI 150+ sticks out like a sore thumb.

(03-15-2015 02:26 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Okay, then how could you be okay with ODU over OSU? Both have one big win @ home. OSU is 15-0 against RPI 100+ teams. ODU is 18-5 against RPI 100+ teams. Head-to-head, it's OSU in a landslide.

Edit: The teams you mentioned all have a large number of quality wins to offset their hiccups. That's not the case with most bubble teams. You're basically selecting the best of the worst, and losing games to RPI 150+ sticks out like a sore thumb.

If you are going to compare the two you need to include one of the most important factors: OOC SOS

OSU's #217 sticks out like a sore thumb and I wouldn't be shocked if it cost them a seed line or two. It's especially embarrassing for a school that can pay any price for buy games to play an OOC schedule like that.

Bad losses are a factor, but it seems to be a distant third behind who you beat and who you played.

If their resumes were close, non-conference scheduling would play a factor, but they're not. OSU > ODU every single time.

Agreed. I do think OSU will have one of the weakest resumes of the at-large bids, though.

http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2015/03/...n.html?m=1

Final bracket projection... go cats

IU gets in.

UC v. Purdue in Kentucky's region looks familiar.

(03-15-2015 05:13 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  UC v. Purdue in Kentucky's region looks familiar.

Great call