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My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
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50Cent Offline
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Post: #21
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
UC an 8 today on cbs and no longer listed on bubble watch page. Can't say same for our friends on victory parkway.
 
03-05-2015 10:13 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #22
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
Now to beat Memphis and win the AAC tournament to get that up to a #6 seed.
 
03-05-2015 10:57 AM
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RealDeal Offline
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Post: #23
Re: RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-05-2015 10:13 AM)50Cent Wrote:  UC an 8 today on cbs and no longer listed on bubble watch page. Can't say same for our friends on victory parkway.

Sadly the thing keeping them in is the road win at 5/3. Resume looks pretty soft recently besides that.
 
03-05-2015 12:34 PM
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Cat-Man Offline
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Post: #24
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-05-2015 12:34 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(03-05-2015 10:13 AM)50Cent Wrote:  UC an 8 today on cbs and no longer listed on bubble watch page. Can't say same for our friends on victory parkway.

Sadly the thing keeping them in is the road win at 5/3. Resume looks pretty soft recently besides that.

Ho-hum, another year of them riding a UC victory to improve their status. It worked wonders for them in the weak A-10. Now its helping them overcome their 11 losses in a much better conference. Maybe Creighton can pull another one out of their rear and beat them again this weekend.
 
03-05-2015 12:47 PM
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BcatMatt13 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-05-2015 12:47 PM)Cat-Man Wrote:  
(03-05-2015 12:34 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(03-05-2015 10:13 AM)50Cent Wrote:  UC an 8 today on cbs and no longer listed on bubble watch page. Can't say same for our friends on victory parkway.

Sadly the thing keeping them in is the road win at 5/3. Resume looks pretty soft recently besides that.

Ho-hum, another year of them riding a UC victory to improve their status. It worked wonders for them in the weak A-10. Now its helping them overcome their 11 losses in a much better conference. Maybe Creighton can pull another one out of their rear and beat them again this weekend.

Creighton nearly beat Villanova at home on Tuesday. Xavier is in for a tough game on Saturday as Creighton is not an easy place to win and it's their senior night. If Xavier loses that they are in big trouble.
 
03-05-2015 02:18 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #26
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
My Championship Week bracket projection is posted. Probably won't do another projection until Selection Sunday. http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2015/03/...-2015.html



Regular season college basketball is over and it appears UC is a lock for the NCAA tournament. As we head into the conference tournaments I have UC as an 8 seed, but could see them as high as a 6 if they make the finals of or win the AAC conference tournament. My projected bracket includes three teams that are already in (Belmont, Costal Carolina and Northern Iowa) and some very close calls at the bubble line. I have Ohio State lower than most bracket projections, but they have the kind of resume the committee usually penalizes teams for (weak non-conference schedule, few road wins and few top 50 RPI wins). I think their ability to avoid bad losses gets them in but I don’t think it’s clear. Most brackets I’ve seen have BYU in, but I still don’t think 3 RPI top 100 wins and only 1 win over a tournament team is enough. I think they need to win the WCC tournament.

Top 6 Seeds in Order (1 seed contenders):

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin

Last 8 in, in order (teams that could conceivably still not make it):

Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Colorado State, Davidson, Temple, Old Dominion, Texas

Last 8 out (Teams alive for at large bids):

Illinois, Tulsa, BYU, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, UCLA, Pitt, Stanford

The Bracket (Predicted Conference Winner in Italics, Conference Champion in Bold):

Midwest

1. Kentucky

16. Albana / UC Davis

8. Xavier

9. Oklahoma State

4. Notre Dame

13. Belmont

5. West Virginia

12. Temple / Old Dominion

3. Iowa State

14. South Dakota State

6. Wichita State

11. Indiana

2. Wisconsin

15. Valparaiso

7. St Johns

10. Oregon

South

1. Duke

16. St Francis

8. Purdue

9. VCU

4. Baylor

13. NC Central

5. Arkansas

12. Louisiana Tech

3. Utah

14. Stephen F. Austin

6. SMU

11. Ohio State

2. Kansas

15. North Florida

7. Michigan State

10. Georgia

East

1. Virginia

16. Texas Southern / Sacramento State

8. Cincinnati

9. LSU

4. Louisville

13. Harvard

5. Butler

12. Iona

3. Maryland

14. Bucknell

6. Providence

11. Davidson / Texas

2. Gonzaga

15. William & Mary

7. Iowa

10. NC State

West

1. Villanova

16. Georgia Southern

8. Dayton

9. Boise State

4. Northern Iowa

13. Central Michigan

5. North Carolina

12. Wofford

3. Oklahoma

14. New Mexico State

6. Georgetown

11. Colorado State

2. Arizona

15. Coastal Carolina

7. San Diego State

10. Ole Miss
 
03-09-2015 05:08 PM
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Coopdaddy67 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
I don't know if UC could beat LSU, but they might be held to 15 points if they faced Virginia.
 
03-09-2015 05:28 PM
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50Cent Offline
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Post: #28
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 05:28 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  I don't know if UC could beat LSU, but they might be held to 15 points if they faced Virginia.

Sometimes...no actually a lot of times...I really question if you are a bearcat fan or you just pretend to be and love to come on and knock anything UC when it comes to football, basketball or realignment.

You don't know if UC could beat LSU. Smh. Oh well at least you have Meeschigan. They perform really well.
 
03-09-2015 05:57 PM
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Post: #29
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
Great Info Mark

Would love to get your thoughts on teams after Selection Sunday.

I am in a college basketball auction every year and haven't followed basketball outside of UC games

Auction is next Monday. Last year it was a prize pool of $32k.

Quote: % of pot returns for each win

1st Rd. win - .05%
2 wins (get to Sweet 16 and lose)– 2%
3 wins (get to Elite 8 and lose) – 4%
4 wins (get to Final 4 and lose) – 8%
5 wins (runner up) – 15%
Champion – 29%
 
03-09-2015 06:33 PM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 05:08 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  My Championship Week bracket projection is posted. Probably won't do another projection until Selection Sunday. http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2015/03/...-2015.html



Regular season college basketball is over and it appears UC is a lock for the NCAA tournament. As we head into the conference tournaments I have UC as an 8 seed, but could see them as high as a 6 if they make the finals of or win the AAC conference tournament. My projected bracket includes three teams that are already in (Belmont, Costal Carolina and Northern Iowa) and some very close calls at the bubble line. I have Ohio State lower than most bracket projections, but they have the kind of resume the committee usually penalizes teams for (weak non-conference schedule, few road wins and few top 50 RPI wins). I think their ability to avoid bad losses gets them in but I don’t think it’s clear. Most brackets I’ve seen have BYU in, but I still don’t think 3 RPI top 100 wins and only 1 win over a tournament team is enough. I think they need to win the WCC tournament.

Top 6 Seeds in Order (1 seed contenders):

Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Arizona, Wisconsin

Last 8 in, in order (teams that could conceivably still not make it):

Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Colorado State, Davidson, Temple, Old Dominion, Texas

Last 8 out (Teams alive for at large bids):

Illinois, Tulsa, BYU, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, UCLA, Pitt, Stanford

The Bracket (Predicted Conference Winner in Italics, Conference Champion in Bold):

Midwest

1. Kentucky

16. Albana / UC Davis

8. Xavier

9. Oklahoma State

4. Notre Dame

13. Belmont

5. West Virginia

12. Temple / Old Dominion

3. Iowa State

14. South Dakota State

6. Wichita State

11. Indiana

2. Wisconsin

15. Valparaiso

7. St Johns

10. Oregon

South

1. Duke

16. St Francis

8. Purdue

9. VCU

4. Baylor

13. NC Central

5. Arkansas

12. Louisiana Tech

3. Utah

14. Stephen F. Austin

6. SMU

11. Ohio State

2. Kansas

15. North Florida

7. Michigan State

10. Georgia

East

1. Virginia

16. Texas Southern / Sacramento State

8. Cincinnati

9. LSU

4. Louisville

13. Harvard

5. Butler

12. Iona

3. Maryland

14. Bucknell

6. Providence

11. Davidson / Texas

2. Gonzaga

15. William & Mary

7. Iowa

10. NC State

West

1. Villanova

16. Georgia Southern

8. Dayton

9. Boise State

4. Northern Iowa

13. Central Michigan

5. North Carolina

12. Wofford

3. Oklahoma

14. New Mexico State

6. Georgetown

11. Colorado State

2. Arizona

15. Coastal Carolina

7. San Diego State

10. Ole Miss

Good job. I am interested in your thoughts on Dayton and Purdue. I have both much closer to the cut line than you do. I still believe BYU's AD gets the Cougars in the tournament even if it requires some back room politics with the AD of Utah State. Despite their weak resumes Colorado State and Boise State are probably good to go based on who chairs the committee.
 
03-09-2015 07:05 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #31
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 07:05 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Good job. I am interested in your thoughts on Dayton and Purdue. I have both much closer to the cut line than you do. I still believe BYU's AD gets the Cougars in the tournament even if it requires some back room politics with the AD of Utah State. Despite their weak resumes Colorado State and Boise State are probably good to go based on who chairs the committee.

Purdue has 9 RPI top 100 wins. They beat 7 at large or near at large caliber teams (teams in the bubble discussion or better). To me the good is good enough that they warrant a bid and is decently ahead of the teams really close to the cut line.

Dayton has 3 really nice wins and a very strong record. I think their RPI profile helps them as does winning the A10.

That said I would not be surprised if either is lower and I am less confident in Dayton as their resume has more holes.
 
03-09-2015 07:46 PM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 07:46 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(03-09-2015 07:05 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Good job. I am interested in your thoughts on Dayton and Purdue. I have both much closer to the cut line than you do. I still believe BYU's AD gets the Cougars in the tournament even if it requires some back room politics with the AD of Utah State. Despite their weak resumes Colorado State and Boise State are probably good to go based on who chairs the committee.

Purdue has 9 RPI top 100 wins. They beat 7 at large or near at large caliber teams (teams in the bubble discussion or better). To me the good is good enough that they warrant a bid and is decently ahead of the teams really close to the cut line.

Dayton has 3 really nice wins and a very strong record. I think their RPI profile helps them as does winning the A10.

That said I would not be surprised if either is lower and I am less confident in Dayton as their resume has more holes.

Dayton didn't win the A-10, Davidson did. Davidson also won the head to head match up by 17. The Flyers have 10 conference wins outside of the top 100 versus 3 conference wins against top 50 competition. Those wins include Rhode Island and Richmond at home and road victory over a depleted VCU squad. I do like the fact the UC beat Ole Miss and Texas A&M early in the year but late season losses to LaSalle and Duquesne
 
03-09-2015 08:03 PM
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Coopdaddy67 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 05:57 PM)50Cent Wrote:  Sometimes...no actually a lot of times...I really question if you are a bearcat fan or you just pretend to be and love to come on and knock anything UC when it comes to football, basketball or realignment.

You don't know if UC could beat LSU. Smh. Oh well at least you have Meeschigan. They perform really well.

It's called objectivity and utilizing common sense, dummy.

If you want someone to tell you the road to the national championship goes through Cincinnati, hit up a Duane thread. For those of us living in Real World, USA, it goes through Kentucky.

As to realignment, what exactly is there to be positive about? Everyone and everything is in a holding pattern and various "insiders" have been saying "IT'S COMING!" for months, going on years. It's my duty as a rational person to help prevent peoples' hopes from getting way to high based on what weird Star Wars characters and moose (plural of moose is moose, right?) say. You're very welcome!

As to Michigan, I don't know that I've ever watched an entire basketball game of theirs. I can name one player on their team, so there's that.

I don't know that any team can beat any other team right now. Except Kentucky, they can beat every single team in their path by double digits, provided they play anywhere close to their potential. If they don't win the national championship, John Calipari should resign.

Finally, try sticking to the topic at hand.
 
03-09-2015 08:11 PM
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Coopdaddy67 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
(03-09-2015 08:03 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Dayton didn't win the A-10, Davidson did. Davidson also won the head to head match up by 17. The Flyers have 10 conference wins outside of the top 100 versus 3 conference wins against top 50 competition. Those wins include Rhode Island and Richmond at home and road victory over a depleted VCU squad. I do like the fact the UC beat Ole Miss and Texas A&M early in the year but late season losses to LaSalle and Duquesne

Miller's done a pretty damn good job with UD this year.

Davidson is going to be a scary team for whoever gets them for the tournament.
 
03-09-2015 08:17 PM
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letharion Offline
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RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
Great thread to read for those of us who can't keep up. Thanks bearcatmark.
 
03-09-2015 09:59 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2015/03/...acket.html

Selection Sunday Bracket Projection

Hopefully I have time to do one final projection before the bracket come out, but here is my bracket as of Selection Sunday morning. All of the conference tournament champions are in bold. I have included the first round tournament sites by putting them in between the two pod games played there. Each site gets two 4 team pods. There is a potential for UConn to steal a bid today, so that is something to keep an eye on.

Cincinnati Bearcats:

I have the Bearcats as the third 8 seed. I think there is a 90% chance UC is playing in the 8/9 game (yea I pulled the number out of thin air and it’s probably wrong, but just seems that is what their resume will warrant). You could make a case for UC has high as a 7 and as lows a 10. I don’t see them any higher or any lower. The way my bracket worked out after doing adjustments for locations and balance of brackets I have UC in Kentucky’s region playing their first round games in Louisville. For teams not seeded in the top 4, locations and what top teams they are paired in a region with are almost impossible to project accurately, so take all that with a grain of salt. The seed range is the most important part and who they are paired against is largely luck of the draw after that.

Top 10 on the S-Curve:

As of right now my top ten looks like this:
1. Kentucky
2. Villanova
3. Wisconsin (assuming they win the Big 10, if they lose you can make a case for 4)
4. Duke
5. Virginia
6. Arizona
7. Gonzaga
8. Kansas
9. Iowa State
10. Notre Dame

I think the top 6 are going to be the top 6 in some order (with UK at the top undoubtedly). You can make a case for Arizona and Virginia as 1 seeds, but I think the case for Wisconsin/Duke is stronger. It seems clear to me that the 1 seeds will come from those 6 teams. I have Gonzaga and Kansas as 2 seeds, but both Iowa State and Notre Dame have good arguments as well. In the end I valued Gonzaga’s gaudy record and 9-2 RPI top 100 record (6-2 vs. top 50) and I valued Kansas’s incredible RPI profile that included play the number 1 schedule in the country and an absurd 9 RPI top 25 wins, 12 RPI top 50 wins and 17 RPI top 100 wins. It is possible the committee sees it differently, but I am pretty confident that all the 1 and 2 seeds will come from these 10.

Last 7 in:
Boise State, Davidson, Indiana, Colorado State, Temple, Texas, Ole Miss
First 2 out:
BYU, Old Dominion

I did this as 7 and 2, because in the end these are the 7 I have in that I could see the committee leaving out and the First 2 are the 2 teams I could possibly see taking any of their places. I think I am one of the few people still leaving BYU out so that is probably where I am most likely to be wrong. My problem with BYU is they only beat 1 at large quality team all season (a great win at Gonzaga). Historically that just has never been enough for the committee. Every team on the bubble has more quality wins than BYU. That means something. Old Dominion has a weird profile where they are 6-2 against the RPI top 100 (including wins over VCU and LSU) and strong nonconference strength of schedule numbers (both of which the committee loves for at large bids), but they were very mediocre in conference play and lost in their conference tournament semis. Had they made the finals, I would have them in, but I think they just miss.

Of the last 7 I feel best about Boise State. One major reason I feel best about Boise State is that I can see no reason they would be behind Colorado State on the S-Curve. That’s one team where I believe they certainly have a better profile. Davidson’s performance down the stretch will likely be enough to carry them in as well. I’m in the minority but I think Temple should be very worried at this point and think they should be rooting against UConn today. I think UConn could take Temple’s spot in the tournament. It’s an easy switch for the committee to make and Temple is only 2-8 against the RPI top 50. Looking deeper a lot of those losses are to really good teams (5 in RPI top 13), but 2 wins over tournament type teams isn’t ideal. The Kansas win will carry a lot of weight, but I’m not sure it carry’s enough considering both of Temple’s wins over tournament competition were at home.

I have Colorado State below most projections as well and would be fine if the committee left them out. They simply haven’t done any damage away from home and haven’t beaten tournament caliber teams. I think Indiana’s quality wins keep them in and I think Texas’s ridiculous schedule combined with not losing to any bad teams keeps them in. Still in the end, I see the bubble as 9 teams for 7 spots (and if UConn wins 9 teams for 6 spots). If any other team misses I think it will be a clear error by the committee and if any team not listed gets in, I think it will be another error by the committee. These are the teams with the best at large cases.

Here’s the bracket:

Midwest Region

1. Kentucky
16. Texas Southern / Hampton

Louisville, Kentucky

8. Cincinnati
9. Purdue

4. North Carolina
13. Valparaiso

Jacksonville, Florida

5. West Virginia
12. Harvard

3. Notre Dame
14. Coastal Carolina

Columbus, Ohio

6. Wichita State
11. Texas / Temple

2. Kansas
15. Lafayette

Omaha, Nebraska

7. Xavier
10. Ohio State


West Region

1. Duke
16. North Florida / Georgia State

Charlotte, NC

8. Iowa
9. Dayton

4. Arkansas
13. UC Irvine

Jacksonville, Florida

5. Butler
12. Wofford

3. Oklahoma
14. North Dakota State

Portland, Oregon

6. Michigan State
11. Davidson

2. Arizona
15. Eastern Washington

Portland, Oregon

7. San Diego State
10. LSU


South Region

1. Wisconsin
16. Robert Morris

Omaha, Nebraska

8. St Johns
9. Georgia

4. Baylor
13. New Mexico State

Seattle, Washington

5. Utah
12. Stephen F. Austin

3. Iowa State
14. UAB

Louisville, Kentucky

6. SMU
11. Ole Miss / Colorado State

2. Gonzaga
15. Belmont

Seattle, Washington

7. Oregon
10. Oklahoma State


East Region

1. Villanova
16. Manhattan

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

8. VCU
9. North Carolina State

4. Northern Iowa
13. Wyoming

Columbus, Ohio

5. Louisville
12. Buffalo

3. Maryland
14. Northeastern

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

6. Providence
11. Indiana

2. Virginia
15. Albany

Charlotte, NC

7. Georgetown
10. Boise State
 
(This post was last modified: 03-15-2015 09:34 AM by bearcatmark.)
03-15-2015 09:34 AM
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Coopdaddy67 Offline
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RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
A lot of SMU fans today.
 
03-15-2015 09:48 AM
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bearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
Mark, I agree with you analysis but I believe BYU's and Utah State's AD will factor into the equation. BYU's has good computer numbers with solid non-conference SOS and RPI numbers but overall week profile. I have them in the tournament based on politics. Old Dominion did beat LSU on a neutral court but their best road wins were against teams ranked in the 200's. The Monarch were great at home and "bad" on the road or at least not good enough for mid-major type profile; however, I think the Monarchs could sneak in. The C-USA associate commissioner is on the committee which is a big positive for Old Dominion. The Monarch's non-conference RPI was 12 and their overall RPI 47, non-conference SOS was 43.

The Mountain West's bubble teams have weak resumes but they do have a rep on the committee so Boise State and Colorado State are safe. LSU's AD is on the committee so the Tigers are in the field. What is the relationship between Oklahoma AD and their rivals Okie State and Texas? My guess it is strong enough to get both in.

If I had to take a wild guess, the cut from the bubble is going to be from the Big Ten and the SEC. Georgia, Ole Miss, Purdue, Indiana, and Ohio State have the weakest power conference resumes.
 
03-15-2015 10:07 AM
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dave416 Offline
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RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
Nice work - biggest quibble is actually Georgia St. in the play-in (assuming they win today). Any reason why they wouldn't be a 13-14 seed? Can't see them slotted behind Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Robert Morris, etc.
 
03-15-2015 10:12 AM
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RE: My Ranking of the Bubble (Best Resume to Weakest)
I hope we dont draw Purdue in the opener. I'd rather play Iowa or tO$U.
 
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