RE: Big 12 would be stupid to expand
This "Stupid to expand" rationale is very similar to the Big East before the football conference was destroyed. They didn't want to split the money more ways, they didn't want to expand into new markets, and they wanted to keep the BCS bid.
Look what happened - they got picked over, the most valuable properties left, they no longer had the power to get the teams they wanted, and the Big East football conference is now gone. When the Big East finally invited BYU, independence was a better option. That also impacted the viability of inviting Boise St, and trickled down to losing San Diego St. Back in 2006 the Big East could have easily swept up BYU, Boise, TCU, and SDSU, had a championship game, opened up new markets, had a 9 figure TV deal, and eliminated a competing conference, all while charging the 4 teams 10 million+ for the privilege.
When you look at the Big 12 the two most valuable properties are fine - Texas and Oklahoma would be great in the Big 10, SEC, ACC, or independent. They were almost in the Pac-10, and may yet go back there. Kansas would probably transfer to a basketball-heavy conference. Where would that leave the rest of the Big 12?
The remaining 7 teams would likely not retain P5 status, and their TV contract would probably drop to $5-8 mill / team in today's money. Since that is what BYU can get on their own, why join after the big teams leave? Similarly, Cincy would pay tens of millions to join the Big 12 right now, but would only be willing to pay a few million once the breakup happens.
One of the big lessons of conference realignment is to get big, and get teams in before your teams get taken away. You also have to compete with the other big conferences for teams and media markets, or your own will get taken away.
If you look at the last 40 years the Big 12 is the only power conference to have it's most valuable properties almost leave, and have 4 teams bail. Since 1990 the SEC has gone from 10->14, ACC from 8->14.5, Pac 10 from 10->12, and the Big 10 from 10->14. The Big 8/SWC has gone from 8+8 to 12 then 10, the only power conference beside the Big East to lose teams.
Quite frankly, Bowlsby obviously can see the above numbers. He knows the conference needs to expand - he would have to be an idiot not to see it. What he needed was a shocking event to get the Big XII presidents to agree. This is why he moved so swiftly and vocally to push for expansion. While he didn't want the crisis, he also doesn't want the lesson to be lost, and have it go to waste.
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