(12-05-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 10:03 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(12-05-2014 09:13 AM)tigersmoke1 Wrote:  Msm96wolf exactly why would the committee do everything they can to avoid a co champ? Are you just pulling this out of your hind parts or have you any factual proof of this.

Nope just watching how this committee works. Please try not to take this as insult. I do think Memphis would be the top choice if an AAC team goes. However, there is not that great of a difference when it comes to Marshall, NIU and Memphis when all is said and done. Memphis does not have a great OOC win, their best argument is we have prettier losses. If Marshall wins CUSA they will finish 12-1, same number of conference losses. Even if Marshal lost to the same p5 teams, they would have the same record. I do think the committee has penalized them with Boise but as some point, you do have to respect 12-1. That is not easy as most teams will attest. If NIU wins the MAC, they finish 11-2 and did play P5 teams with a win. I would not say any of the AAC teams "lookwise" are that better than the other teams. I think the committee will place emphasis on an outright conference champ.

Just why I think the ACCESS order is as follows?
Boise
NIU
Marshall
Memphis

Feel free to disagree, but it is just one person's rationale. Is that now what these boards are for.

One thing I will say, the CFP has made CCG weekends actually have meaning now. As much as people may want to complain about getting it to 8. Four has been a marketing boon for ESPN. Odds are with 8, some losers of CCG are still in. Basically they have created a first round playoff with CCGs, which I prefer.

sorry but the committee won't respect Marshall at 12-1. Marshall's schedule is pure garbage. Look how long it took them to get in the ratings undefeated.

S20, you know I respect you analysis. Was SOS, bad yes. Against one loss or two loss team, I think the committee was willing to use that against them. But a three loss team that Marshall probably would have the exact same record against? I think the CCG will be deciding factor, thus why I have them behind NIU. I just don't think the committee will say any AAC team is that much head and shoulders above Marshall. Just like the B12, I think not having a CCG will end up hurting this year but that will be resolved next year for the AAC.

Again, we will have to agree to disagree like we did when I predicted Mich St would be rated higher then Miss St in the polls this week. Curious to see your order for the teams after Boise. One thing we know for sure we will know for sure Sunday.

After seeing CUSA CCG, I would change my order to

Boise
NIU
Memphis
Marshall

(12-06-2014 03:59 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After seeing CUSA CCG, I would change my order to

Boise
NIU
Memphis
Marshall

Marshall wasn't impressive, but remember, LA-Tech isn't a bad team. The Massey Composite of 100+ rankings has LA-Tech at #44, just AHEAD of Cincinnati at #45 and #51 UCF, and just behind #39 Memphis. There's not much shame in beating LA-Tech in a close game.

So Marshall's overall resume is clearly better than Memphis. Virtually the same SOS, but two fewer losses.

Since NIU also has a pathetic schedule, hard to put them ahead of Marshall either.

(12-06-2014 04:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 03:59 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After seeing CUSA CCG, I would change my order to

Boise
NIU
Memphis
Marshall

Marshall wasn't impressive, but remember, LA-Tech isn't a bad team. The Massey Composite of 100+ rankings has LA-Tech at #44, just AHEAD of Cincinnati at #45 and #51 UCF, and just behind #39 Memphis. There's not much shame in beating LA-Tech in a close game.

So Marshall's overall resume is clearly better than Memphis. Virtually the same SOS, but two fewer losses.

Since NIU also has a pathetic schedule, hard to put them ahead of Marshall either.

NIU - 2 P5 teams on the schedule 11-2
Marshall - 0 P5 teams on the schedule 12-1



Unless your saying the MAC sucks than thats a different conversation but NIU cannot control that.

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 04:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 03:59 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After seeing CUSA CCG, I would change my order to

Boise
NIU
Memphis
Marshall

Marshall wasn't impressive, but remember, LA-Tech isn't a bad team. The Massey Composite of 100+ rankings has LA-Tech at #44, just AHEAD of Cincinnati at #45 and #51 UCF, and just behind #39 Memphis. There's not much shame in beating LA-Tech in a close game.

So Marshall's overall resume is clearly better than Memphis. Virtually the same SOS, but two fewer losses.

Since NIU also has a pathetic schedule, hard to put them ahead of Marshall either.

NIU - 2 P5 teams on the schedule 11-2
Marshall - 0 P5 teams on the schedule 12-1



Unless your saying the MAC sucks than thats a different conversation but NIU cannot control that.

You do realize that your schedule consists of more than just those two "P5" games, right?

Sagarin, e.g., has Marshall's overall SOS at 131, NIU's is 128. So if those two P5 teams you played were such studly awesome teams, then yes, that can only mean the MAC sucks. And since you played all those sucky MAC teams, that hurts your SOS.

Anyway, 131 to 128 isn't nearly enough to justify your extra loss. Marshall is more deserving.

(12-06-2014 06:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 05:07 PM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 04:57 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 03:59 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After seeing CUSA CCG, I would change my order to

Boise
NIU
Memphis
Marshall

Marshall wasn't impressive, but remember, LA-Tech isn't a bad team. The Massey Composite of 100+ rankings has LA-Tech at #44, just AHEAD of Cincinnati at #45 and #51 UCF, and just behind #39 Memphis. There's not much shame in beating LA-Tech in a close game.

So Marshall's overall resume is clearly better than Memphis. Virtually the same SOS, but two fewer losses.

Since NIU also has a pathetic schedule, hard to put them ahead of Marshall either.

NIU - 2 P5 teams on the schedule 11-2
Marshall - 0 P5 teams on the schedule 12-1



Unless your saying the MAC sucks than thats a different conversation but NIU cannot control that.

You do realize that your schedule consists of more than just those two "P5" games, right?

Sagarin, e.g., has Marshall's overall SOS at 131, NIU's is 128. So if those two P5 teams you played were such studly awesome teams, then yes, that can only mean the MAC sucks. And since you played all those sucky MAC teams, that hurts your SOS.

Anyway, 131 to 128 isn't nearly enough to justify your extra loss. Marshall is more deserving.

We lost to SEC Arkansas ( a team who was a missed PAT from at least going to OT with 'Bama)... if we scheduled a cake like Marshall, it's likely we would have the extra win, too. Marshall didn't even bother to schedule a P5 when they had the opportunity.

If no one is in the top 25 can the committee just pick elsewhere?..or..is it just the highest ranked period?

What do you mean elsewhere ? If you mean - can they just pick a P5 team, then no they can't. The G5 is guaranteed at least one bid.

(12-06-2014 07:47 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  If no one is in the top 25 can the committee just pick elsewhere?..or..is it just the highest ranked period?

Its the best Go5 conference champion ... how they decide best if the CFP committee does not place any Go5 school in the top 25, I don't know ... if they had one they would put in the top 30, I guess they could go ahead and announce a top 30.

(12-06-2014 09:33 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-06-2014 07:47 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  If no one is in the top 25 can the committee just pick elsewhere?..or..is it just the highest ranked period?

Its the best Go5 conference champion ... how they decide best if the CFP committee does not place any Go5 school in the top 25, I don't know ... if they had one they would put in the top 30, I guess they could go ahead and announce a top 30.

They'd just choose their #1 the top 25 doesn't really mean too much for G5, outside of being the top.

(12-06-2014 06:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  You do realize that your schedule consists of more than just those two "P5" games, right?

Yes ... except take out the top two OOC wins of the two schools, and the rest if basically equivalent. Set those two games from the two schools off to one side and its a winning conference record with one conference loss, an OOC win against an FCS school and an OOC win against a 2-win Go5 school.

The part of the schedule that distinguished the two is Marshall beating a 6-6 Ohio U and a 5-7 Akron U, both failing to get a winning record out of the weak MAC East, as opposed to NIU losing to Arkansas and beating a 5-7 Big Ten Northwestern.

And you can say that the Big Ten West had a down year this year so a 5-7 B1G West school is not all that, but not as abysmally bad as the year that the MAC East had.