(11-29-2014 08:01 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote: (11-28-2014 06:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote: All teams should be judged on their overall resumes. If MSS beats Ole Miss and OSU beats Michigan and then Wisconsin, it will be hard to make the case that OSU has the better resume.
Hopefully, the committee will not be blinded by a false criteria - conference champ - and do the wrong thing.
OSU plays 13 games. Cincy, Navy, and VaTech in OOC. 1 poor OOC team. Minny (29), UMD (44), Rutgers (66), MSU (12), PSU (55), Indiana(90) (which I mention because an SEC team lost to them at home), and Big Ten CG opponent (hopefully Wisconsin, for OSU's sake).
MSU plays 12 games. Four poor OOC teams. TAMU, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn.
I wouldn't dare argue that the 6 "quality" conference opponents mentioned above for OSU are better than Miss St's...but we're literally talking about a six game season that MSU played this year. They went 5-1. OSU, on the other hand, played 10 games worth discussing, which they went 9-1 through (assuming they win out in the CCG). I think it's harder to go 9-1 versus 10 solid to good opponents than 5-1 versus 6 good opponents.
I highly doubt that the committee takes 11-1 MSU over 12-1 OSU as Big Ten champ. Highly.
Wow ... just looking at the teams you focused on, I'd MUCH rather play Minnesota (29), Maryland (44), Rutgers (66), Penn State (55), Michigan State (12), and Wisconsin (14) than ... TAMU (27), LSU (21), Ole Miss (11), Arkansas (22), Alabama (1), and Auburn (10). The latter slate is far more talented and difficult to beat. Those numbers in parentheses are the Massey Composite rankings of over 100+ computers and ranking systems. You can see the disparity. In your mind, a team like Penn State is close in quality to a team like TAMU, but Massey says TAMU (27) is much better than PSU (55).
According to Massey, MSS has played three teams - Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss - that are better than anyone OSU has played.
Overall, the average ranking of OSU's conference opponents we discussed above is 33.8 .... MSS's is 15.3. That's a big difference in quality.
Yes, OSU played a tougher OOC schedule, but not by that much. They didn't face any Oregons or TCUs, nobody on their OOC schedule is ranked higher than #50 in the Massey Composite. So I don't put much stock in games versus Navy, VT, and Cincy being "worth discussing". Let's face it: In the SEC those games would be viewed as "breather" games. Playing and winning them proves little versus playing even worse teams like UAB and USA.
All that said, where the rubber should meet the road is overall SOS. That covers all the quibbles about OOC and whose conference was better.
Currently, Sagarin has MSS's schedule at #39, Ohio State's is #55. That could move a little in OSU's direction if they play Wisconsin in the CCG but probably not that much given OSU also is tagged with playing Michigan as well while MSS has to get by Ole Miss.
Overall, it's likely that MSS will have played a slightly tougher schedule than OSS. Combine that with MSS's far better loss, and it will be difficult to make a rational case for OSU.
Because of that, I expect the case for OSU to be more emotional/political, along the lines of "how on earth can we leave the B1G Champion out of the playoffs ?!?!" and the like.