(11-09-2014 11:24 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

I can't see why they wouldn't be. There are more future NFL players on the LSU team they beat than on FSU or TCU. Or Mississippi State. And they beat them in front of 103,000 Baton Rouge crazies.

And TCU crushed a higher rated team than LSU.
How many NFL players doesn't tell how good a team you are. Kansas St. would regularly be in the bottom of the Big 12 if it was based on projected talent. Duke wouldn't be winning in the ACC. Northwestern wouldn't have more Big 10 titles over the last 20 years than everyone but Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Your just not going to convince anyone that the #6 team should jump the #5 team when the #6 team just beat #16 LSU on the road in front of 103,000 crazies in one of the toughest places to play in the country.

I'd give TCU maybe a 40% chance of beating LSU in Baton Rouge, but I'd give Alabama a 80% chance of beating Kansas State in Tuscaloosa.

But don't worry, the SEC West isn't done beating each other so your TCU - which doesn't have to face Mississippi State and Auburn the next two weeks like Alabama does - will be sitting pretty anyway.

(11-09-2014 11:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Your just not going to convince anyone that the #6 team should jump the #5 team when the #6 team just beat #16 LSU on the road in front of 103,000 crazies in one of the toughest places to play in the country.

You mean the #6 team that just blew out the #7 team?

Let's talk DUKE

1) beat UNC, Wake, and VTech to finish 11-1

2) than just need to pull the upset over FSU and they should be in.

I could see all from 1 happening but 2 seems very unlikely.

(11-09-2014 11:54 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  TCU has no business being in the top 4. They gave up 59 points in a single game. Nobody out of the Big12 looks like a quality team.

Alabama didn't look like a quality team vs. Tennessee or Arkansas. Only Nicholls St. was held to less points by Arkansas than Alabama's 14.

(11-09-2014 09:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:59 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:55 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

Yeah, well I disagree. So far, it does seem as if the Committee is using their ranks as a measuring stick. I get it, you are a Baylor guy and Baylor is certainly deserving of jumping ahead of TCU but the fact that they would also have to jump Alabama in order to do that means that I don't think it happens this week.

Bama was ahead of TCU last poll IIRC.

Based on the selection process (rank teams then compare in groups of 6) BU hasn't been directly compared against the Frogs yet. With so many "buffer" teams dropping out via losses if both win out the comparison is going to happen in some group of six and we will most likely jump them.

Should it come down to 1 loss TCU or 1 loss Baylor at the end of the season, it would be interesting to see what they come up with. Baylor won head to head and would be conference champ, but TCU would be a co-champ.

(11-09-2014 12:16 PM)CoogNellie Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 11:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Your just not going to convince anyone that the #6 team should jump the #5 team when the #6 team just beat #16 LSU on the road in front of 103,000 crazies in one of the toughest places to play in the country.

You mean the #6 team that just blew out the #7 team?

Yes, that team. TCU would have a lot harder time beating lsu in baton rouge than Alabama would beating KSU in Tuscaloosa.

(11-09-2014 09:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:59 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:55 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

Yeah, well I disagree. So far, it does seem as if the Committee is using their ranks as a measuring stick. I get it, you are a Baylor guy and Baylor is certainly deserving of jumping ahead of TCU but the fact that they would also have to jump Alabama in order to do that means that I don't think it happens this week.

Bama was ahead of TCU last poll IIRC.

Based on the selection process (rank teams then compare in groups of 6) BU hasn't been directly compared against the Frogs yet. With so many "buffer" teams dropping out via losses if both win out the comparison is going to happen in some group of six and we will most likely jump them.

Yes, Alabama was 5th and TCU 6th. You actually believe Baylor will jump past both Alabama and TCU? You do realize that will cause Alabama to actually lose a position despite beating 16th ranked LSU at Death Valley?

That isn't going to happen just so Baylor can jump 8 positions in the rankings. Maybe you aren't saying that, but if you are then you are being an extreme homer. I don't say that as an insult but take a serious look at the situation. There is no way they push Alabama down a position.

(11-09-2014 12:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:16 PM)CoogNellie Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 11:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Your just not going to convince anyone that the #6 team should jump the #5 team when the #6 team just beat #16 LSU on the road in front of 103,000 crazies in one of the toughest places to play in the country.

You mean the #6 team that just blew out the #7 team?

Yes, that team. TCU would have a lot harder time beating lsu in baton rouge than Alabama would beating KSU in Tuscaloosa.

One can make that assumption but that is not a quantifiable assumption. The quantifiable assumption is that TCU will get credit for beating the #7 COMMITTEE ranked team soundly while Alabama will get credit for a hard fought win in a very tough setting but that win was against the #16 COMMITTEE ranked team.

You seem to be looking at this from a heavily SEC biased perspective but what matters here is what the Committee thinks. They put Kansas State 9 spots above LSU and they are going to treat those wins according to their own rankings.

(11-09-2014 12:30 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 11:54 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  TCU has no business being in the top 4. They gave up 59 points in a single game. Nobody out of the Big12 looks like a quality team.

Alabama didn't look like a quality team vs. Tennessee or Arkansas. Only Nicholls St. was held to less points by Arkansas than Alabama's 14.

Never gave up 59 points

Every Ohio St. and Nebraska fan should be rooting for Miami to take out FSU on Saturday. It's the Big Ten's best chance at getting its champ into the playoff.

(11-09-2014 02:33 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Every Ohio St. and Nebraska fan should be rooting for Miami to take out FSU on Saturday. It's the Big Ten's best chance at getting its champ into the playoff.

I'm also rooting for Alabama against Mississippi State, Ole Miss against Miss State and Auburn against Alabama.

It's not that I think the SEC shouldn't have a team in, it's that I think nothing is more likely to bring about an early expansion of the playoff to six teams than the SEC being knocked out by itself.

I am more interested in the overall social experiment than I am in boosting the Big Ten. It is their own fault if they don't get a team in this year. The fact that the Michigan State fans erupted in applause at the stadium when it was announced that Auburn lost to A&M, that tells me the culture is changing in the Big Ten already.

There wasn't any link given, but I saw someone claim Hancock said co-champs would be evaluated the same as if they were champs.

I imagine the same would apply in the case of division co-champs like Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech in 2008 in the Big 12 South. Or if the SEC West had a tie and the winner of the west won the SEC cg.

(11-09-2014 03:10 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:33 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Every Ohio St. and Nebraska fan should be rooting for Miami to take out FSU on Saturday. It's the Big Ten's best chance at getting its champ into the playoff.

I'm also rooting for Alabama against Mississippi State, Ole Miss against Miss State and Auburn against Alabama.

It's not that I think the SEC shouldn't have a team in, it's that I think nothing is more likely to bring about an early expansion of the playoff to six teams than the SEC being knocked out by itself.

I am more interested in the overall social experiment than I am in boosting the Big Ten. It is their own fault if they don't get a team in this year. The fact that the Michigan State fans erupted in applause at the stadium when it was announced that Auburn lost to A&M, that tells me the culture is changing in the Big Ten already.

There were hundreds of fans at the Georgia/Vanderbilt game that stayed after the game to watch the end of 2 games on the scoreboard screen. Not just Alabama/Ole Miss, but also TCU/Oklahoma. Georgia fans don't have anything against Alabama, but everyone was rooting for Ole Miss. And also TCU.

(11-09-2014 03:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  There wasn't any link given, but I saw someone claim Hancock said co-champs would be evaluated the same as if they were champs.

I imagine the same would apply in the case of division co-champs like Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech in 2008 in the Big 12 South. Or if the SEC West had a tie and the winner of the west won the SEC cg.

I think your point is relevant when it comes to TCU and Baylor perhaps but how does it pertain to the SEC? Are you trying to say something in regards to minimizing what happens if everyone in the West has two losses?

(11-09-2014 03:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 03:10 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:33 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Every Ohio St. and Nebraska fan should be rooting for Miami to take out FSU on Saturday. It's the Big Ten's best chance at getting its champ into the playoff.

I'm also rooting for Alabama against Mississippi State, Ole Miss against Miss State and Auburn against Alabama.

It's not that I think the SEC shouldn't have a team in, it's that I think nothing is more likely to bring about an early expansion of the playoff to six teams than the SEC being knocked out by itself.

I am more interested in the overall social experiment than I am in boosting the Big Ten. It is their own fault if they don't get a team in this year. The fact that the Michigan State fans erupted in applause at the stadium when it was announced that Auburn lost to A&M, that tells me the culture is changing in the Big Ten already.

There were hundreds of fans at the Georgia/Vanderbilt game that stayed after the game to watch the end of 2 games on the scoreboard screen. Not just Alabama/Ole Miss, but also TCU/Oklahoma. Georgia fans don't have anything against Alabama, but everyone was rooting for Ole Miss. And also TCU.

Oh yeah, I am sure it is a phenomenon country wide but in particular the Big Ten has a very long history and that has led to a rather "self centered" mindset. They aren't used to giving a damn about the rest of the country in football. They historically care more about winning the Big Ten and going to the Rose Bowl. They have cared more about that than National Rankings. From the most haughty, all you would get is an eye roll if you tried to talk negatively about The Big Ten in the national perspective.

That isn't the case anymore. Those same folks now want to see the Big Ten competitive nationally.

Many coaching choices in the Big Ten have historically been great political choices but we are seeing that less now. What Northwestern has done, the choice Wisconsin made with their new coach. They bring new styles, new perspectives and to most of you that might not seem like a big deal as your leagues have already embraced such ideals but it is a very big deal in The Big Ten.

The biggest indicator, that has yet to fully prove itself as an indicator, is the hiring of Franklin at Penn State.

(11-09-2014 03:23 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 03:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  There wasn't any link given, but I saw someone claim Hancock said co-champs would be evaluated the same as if they were champs.

I imagine the same would apply in the case of division co-champs like Oklahoma/Texas/Texas Tech in 2008 in the Big 12 South. Or if the SEC West had a tie and the winner of the west won the SEC cg.

I think your point is relevant when it comes to TCU and Baylor perhaps but how does it pertain to the SEC? Are you trying to say something in regards to minimizing what happens if everyone in the West has two losses?

Clearly it applies to a Baylor/TCU or TCU/Kansas St. tie.

And conceivably it might apply to the SEC West if, say Auburn, MSU, Ole Miss and Alabama tied for the title and then Auburn beat Georgia or Missouri for the SEC title. None of the 4 would be disadvantaged for not being a conference champion if they applied it that way. Now if Auburn lost to Georgia for the title, then it wouldn't help any of them.

(11-09-2014 11:38 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Ohio St. was without their QB, so they may get a break for that VT loss. Its quality wins more than the loss that give them a problem. The Big 10 isn't viewed as very strong at the top this year.

I agree. And the fact that they beat Mich St. by more than two scores actually hurts their case rather than helps it. The Spartans other loss was by more than two scores to Oregon. That calls into question the real strength at the top of the Big 10 more than it makes the Oregon loss look like a fluke.

Also, Minnesota (slammed by T.C.U.) and Wisconsin ( a tough loss against a middle of the SEC West pack in L.S.U.) are still in contention. Should either win their division and play Ohio State close that doesn't bode well for the Big 10.

As the standings stand right now, if I was granted control of the playoffs all 4 teams would be from the Big 12, SEC or the PAC 12. That could change depending on how the different scenarios play out.

(11-09-2014 03:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 11:38 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Ohio St. was without their QB, so they may get a break for that VT loss. Its quality wins more than the loss that give them a problem. The Big 10 isn't viewed as very strong at the top this year.

I agree. And the fact that they beat Mich St. by more than two scores actually hurts their case rather than helps it. The Spartans other loss was by more than two scores to Oregon. That calls into question the real strength at the top of the Big 10 more than it makes the Oregon loss look like a fluke.

Also, Minnesota (slammed by T.C.U.) and Wisconsin ( a tough loss against a middle of the SEC West pack in L.S.U.) are still in contention. Should either win their division and play Ohio State close that doesn't bode well for the Big 10.

Give me a break. Michigan State was at Oregon for that game and the Ohio State game was a home game which they were competing to win the division, conference and a possible berth in the playoff. This just comes off as your attempt to demean what Ohio State did. You are trying to hard JR.

Ohio State went into the 8th ranked teams home and trounced them while Alabama barely squeeked by the number 16 team in that away game. I know you will have excuses for that but by your own comparison, this comparison is just as valid and is an argument against Alabama.

So how about we just leave the silly attempts out of this and see how it plays out. Ohio State did themselves a big favor last night and everyone knows it.

(11-09-2014 05:28 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 03:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 11:38 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Ohio St. was without their QB, so they may get a break for that VT loss. Its quality wins more than the loss that give them a problem. The Big 10 isn't viewed as very strong at the top this year.

I agree. And the fact that they beat Mich St. by more than two scores actually hurts their case rather than helps it. The Spartans other loss was by more than two scores to Oregon. That calls into question the real strength at the top of the Big 10 more than it makes the Oregon loss look like a fluke.

Also, Minnesota (slammed by T.C.U.) and Wisconsin ( a tough loss against a middle of the SEC West pack in L.S.U.) are still in contention. Should either win their division and play Ohio State close that doesn't bode well for the Big 10.

Give me a break. Michigan State was at Oregon for that game and the Ohio State game was a home game which they were competing to win the division, conference and a possible berth in the playoff. This just comes off as your attempt to demean what Ohio State did. You are trying to hard JR.

Ohio State went into the 8th ranked teams home and trounced them while Alabama barely squeeked by the number 16 team in that away game. I know you will have excuses for that but by your own comparison, this comparison is just as valid and is an argument against Alabama.

So how about we just leave the silly attempts out of this and see how it plays out. Ohio State did themselves a big favor last night and everyone knows it.

No question, in some kind of technical sense, Ohio State's win over MSU was worth more "credit" than Alabama's over LSU. Beating #8 by 12 is better than beating #16 by 7 in OT.

That said, we all know that's a formality. Had Alabama played at Michigan State last night, all of us would have expected them to win. Had Ohio State played at LSU last night, LSU would have been the favorite. Despite rankings, LSU at home is just a more dangerous opponent than MSU at home.

One big reason for that is Michigan State has done nothing to make anyone think they are any good outside of B1G play. The one time they stepped out of B1G play, they got trounced by Oregon, and the B1G isn't a good conference so how much credit does a team deserve for winning B1G games?

So JR is correct in that their status as anything but a paper tiger has to be questioned. At the end of the year, it's going to be tough to argue that beating Michigan State is a big claim to fame.