1 thing that will be real interesting to see next week is which teams that played big games this week have a hangover....

(11-09-2014 02:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  just saw a projection from Jerry Palm from CBS. not the most accurate at times- but man does he set up a scenario...
1 Florida St vs 4 Baylor
2 Alabama vs 3 Oregon(if Alabama wins out this makes sense)

in the Cotton Bowl he has TCU vs Ohio St in what would be a 5 vs 6 game at 1pm on New Year's Day. Talk about a delicious appetizer.

If all those teams win out then that is likely how they end up ranked. That Baylor choice could end up being TCU instead. My eyeball test still tells me that TCU is the more dynamic team and is more of a challenge to the likes of an Alabama or FSU. We will see how FSU looks in the ACC championship game but for now I wouldn't bet on them to beat either Baylor or TCU.

Also, I expect ASU to beat Arizona. When that happens, folks will have to realize that the Championship game isn't a gimmie for Oregon. If it comes down to the two teams going at it with one loss each, I actually feel that Arizona State will have the edge. Don't put it past Graham to pull a sneak attack on Oregon and play both of his quarterbacks at different points in that game in order to keep Oregon's defense off balance.

Yeah I really am not sold on FSU either. They just aren't the same team as last year at all. Not even close. Just think they'll be like Auburn- finally those 9 lives run out and Karma gets them.

Wouldn't be shocked if ASU beats Oregon at all. Only thing is wouldn't be shocked if Oregon drops a stunner here in the next few weeks. Injuries really starting to pile up for them.

That would have to be a huge stunner, even with the injuries. Oregon's remaining regular-season games are vs. Colorado and at Oregon State. But, the injuries would/will be a big issue for Oregon against Arizona State. One thing that might help is that Oregon's backup center will get two more games in as the starting center before they play the Pac-12 title game.

If you are MSST and 'Bama, I think you praying that Mizzou wins out. I only schools I think are home free are FSU and TCU.

(11-09-2014 01:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

Agreed if not for a couple of questionable calls Alabama could be sitting with three losses right now. Alabama will have a chance to state their case when they play Mississippi State

(11-09-2014 01:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think for one the A&M win now looks way better. So yeah, think Alabama will be #4 now.

A&M is not a good team I've been saying that all year

There still resting on laurels from past years

If anything A&M beating Auburn shows that the SEC West while still the best division doesn't have any separation from the rest of the P5 conferences

(11-09-2014 01:56 AM)CoogNellie Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:50 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

The SEC champ will still go. The PAC 12, Big 12, and ACC champs will go but there is no other major champ that could take the SEC's place.

If every team in the SEC has two losses and every other P5 conference has a one loss team SEC is out

I think they play it safe, move Bama to #4 and TCU to #5

This is OK because Bama and MSU play an elimination game.

Whoever loses will be out and allow TCU to move into the Top 4 where they belong.

TCU should win out with easy games vs KU, UT and ISU remaining.

(11-09-2014 01:59 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:55 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

Yeah, well I disagree. So far, it does seem as if the Committee is using their ranks as a measuring stick. I get it, you are a Baylor guy and Baylor is certainly deserving of jumping ahead of TCU but the fact that they would also have to jump Alabama in order to do that means that I don't think it happens this week.

Bama was ahead of TCU last poll IIRC.

Based on the selection process (rank teams then compare in groups of 6) BU hasn't been directly compared against the Frogs yet. With so many "buffer" teams dropping out via losses if both win out the comparison is going to happen in some group of six and we will most likely jump them.

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State

I am astonished at how easy FSU has it. It's back to the future, as in the 1990s, when FSU basically had a one-game season: Beat Florida and advance to the national title game.

While the other playoff contenders have huge games versus quality opponents almost every week, FSU gets to sit back and cruise past ACC cupcakes. Not a threat in sight.

Appalling.

(11-09-2014 09:34 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I think they play it safe, move Bama to #4 and TCU to #5

This is OK because Bama and MSU play an elimination game.

Whoever loses will be out and allow TCU to move into the Top 4 where they belong.

TCU should win out with easy games vs KU, UT and ISU remaining.

Alabama/Miss St is not an elimination game for Miss St. If Miss St wins and Alabama loses, Miss St is the division champ with 1 loss..

(11-09-2014 01:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

I can't see why they wouldn't be. There are more future NFL players on the LSU team they beat than on FSU or TCU. Or Mississippi State. And they beat them in front of 103,000 Baton Rouge crazies.

And TCU crushed a higher rated team than LSU.
How many NFL players doesn't tell how good a team you are. Kansas St. would regularly be in the bottom of the Big 12 if it was based on projected talent. Duke wouldn't be winning in the ACC. Northwestern wouldn't have more Big 10 titles over the last 20 years than everyone but Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio St.

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)CoogNellie Wrote:  You are right, Stever. The 4,5, 6 debate is moot for Bama because they win and they're in. They don't have to worry about looking good.

Almost certainly true.

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)CoogNellie Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I'm not so sure. The WVU loss might not be a quality loss if they keep losing and this committee seems hellbent on punishing teams with a weak OOC schedule. Plus the TCU win was so close.

If they were punishing for a weak ooc, FSU would be #1 and Mississippi St. would be 2 or 3.

Baylor was being punished because they hadn't proven anything yet. They lost to WVU. They beat TCU by 3 at home when TCU fell asleep in the 4th and gave up 24 late points. And it took a couple of favorable referee calls to win it. Their next best win was against 4-5 Texas in a tight game. Their good conference games were back-loaded.

Baylor should move up because now they have a good win against a good team. And it was on the road.

(11-09-2014 02:09 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:50 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

That would be the real interesting part(you could add if East team wins the SEC).

Will have to see the Big Ten quite frankly as well. Ohio St and Nebraska both have HUGE games next week. Would think Wisconsin will be favored over Nebraska and Minnesota/Ohio St will be real interesting as well. Wisconsin and Minnesota both win- Big Ten is gone(and I think you would agree- no 2 loss Big Ten team would have a shot).

Yeah, I think Ohio State is really the only team with a shot and they need it all to play out properly to get in with 1 loss. If they get another loss they are done, just as MSU is now.

Minnesota was a much better athletic squad than Iowa today. I saw it and on one hand, I loved seeing how even Minnesota could put together such a squad in the Big Ten but it also showed me just how behind the times Ferentz and his coaches are.

Minnesota isn't anywhere near as talented and athletic as Ohio State though. I don't think Urban will let his guys fall into the trap. They know what is at stake. Well, at least I hope he doesn't let them look past Minnesota.

If FSU continues on, they will be in.

Hopefully we see an Oregon/Arizona State match up that sends a one loss PAC champion into the playoff.

At this point I do think the Big 12 is deserving of having a team. If Baylor or TCU makes it through without another loss then I think they got a great shot at making it.

At that point what if Ohio State gets a big win against 7-2 Minnesota next week? Indiana beat the SEC East leading Missouri Tigers so a big win over Indiana could prove valuable later on if things in the SEC go crazy. The Ohio State/Michigan game will garner a lot of attention. Michigan always plays up for Ohio State, it will be a challenge for OSU. Finally they end with Wisconsin/Nebraska whom will likely be ranked at least in the top 15 as both are in the top 25 currently.

When you look at all that, does a 2 loss SEC champion automatically get in ahead of either Ohio State or TCU/Baylor? I don't know if the Committee is willing to make that big of a statement in their first year.

There's no way a 2 loss SEC champ beats out a 1 loss TCU/Baylor or a 1 loss Oregon/ASU. Both would have faced a lot of good teams. I think it unlikely they would beat out a 1 loss Big 10 champ, but its possible.

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Ohio St. was without their QB, so they may get a break for that VT loss. Its quality wins more than the loss that give them a problem. The Big 10 isn't viewed as very strong at the top this year.

My rankings-

#1 Florida St
#2 Mississippi St
#3 Oregon
#4 TCU
#5 Alabama
#6 Arizona St
#7 Baylor
#8 Ohio St
#9 Nebraska
#10 Auburn

#'s 1-6 control there own destiny, win and your in! I do believe that TCU would get in over Baylor if they were both to win out based on the quality of there loss. I also do not think that Mississippi St can afford a loss. Every other team in my top 6 has a quality OOC win, MSU does not. Obviously if multiple teams with in my top 10 lose games between now and conference championship weekend then my thought process must change, but at this time I'm working under the premise that they all win out.

(11-09-2014 11:24 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:24 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

I can't see why they wouldn't be. There are more future NFL players on the LSU team they beat than on FSU or TCU. Or Mississippi State. And they beat them in front of 103,000 Baton Rouge crazies.

And TCU crushed a higher rated team than LSU.
How many NFL players doesn't tell how good a team you are. Kansas St. would regularly be in the bottom of the Big 12 if it was based on projected talent. Duke wouldn't be winning in the ACC. Northwestern wouldn't have more Big 10 titles over the last 20 years than everyone but Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio St.

If how many NFL players a team puts out mattered to the Committee then LSU would have been ranked higher. It doesn't. People try too hard, the committee gives us ranks. No reason to overthink it, it is simple math.

TCU has no business being in the top 4. They gave up 59 points in a single game. Nobody out of the Big12 looks like a quality team.

* by all win out I mean the top 6 minus the loser of Alabama VS Mississippi St

(11-09-2014 11:38 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 02:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Know one thing for sure- FSU now has really no safety net. If they lose a game, they are in deep trouble. That ND win now no where near as impressive. Miami game could be very interesting for them- and Florida you just don't know.

For Ohio St I think they need for VT to get bowl eligible. Losing to maybe a 4-8 team would look real bad. Also really need Michigan St to win out here- to make that win as good as possible. I think if Auburn somehow got to be the 2 loss champion, that would pose the biggest problem because not only do they have 7 SEC wins, but also the Kansas St win. In the chaos scenario you mentioned, Auburn would be SEC west division champions.

Ohio St. was without their QB, so they may get a break for that VT loss. Its quality wins more than the loss that give them a problem. The Big 10 isn't viewed as very strong at the top this year.

Michigan State was ranked 8th by the Committee. Ohio State will also face a ranked team in the Championship most likely. They will have only 1 loss that will be forgivable due to the state of the team at the time. They will have two late season wins over ranked squads. Michigan State was seen as having one of the best defenses in the nation and Ohio State went into their house and scored against them as many points as they generally do against any other program. It was an impressive offensive display.