Contenders: based on a comparison of wins and losses and College Football Computer Composite (CFCC) Rankings - November 3, 2014

MARSHALL
CFCC Rank: 22
Overall: 8-0
Top-25: N/A
26-50: N/A
51-75: N/A
76-100: 2-0
101+: 6-0
Key wins: at #97 Akron, #79 MTSU
Key losses: none

COLORADO STATE
CFCC Rank: 23
Overall: 8-1
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 3-1
51-75: N/A
76-100: 3-0
101+: 1-0
Key wins: at #40 Boston College, at #42 Nevada, #45 Utah St., #88 Wyoming, at #89 SJSU, #96 Colorado (neutral field)
Key losses: #31 Boise St.

BOISE STATE
CFCC Rank: 31
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: 1-1
26-50: 2-0
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 2-0
Key wins: #23 Colorado St., at #42 Nevada, #47 BYU, #58 ULL
Key losses: #5 Ole Miss (neutral field), at #55 Air Force

NEVADA
CFCC Rank: 42
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: 1-1
51-75: N/A
76-100: 3-0
101+: 1-0
Key wins: at #47 BYU, #86 SDSU, #87 Washington St., at #89 SJSU
Key losses: #23 Colorado St., at #25 Arizona, #31 Boise St.

UTAH STATE
CFCC Rank: 45
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 4-0
Key wins: at #47 BYU, #55 Air Force
Key losses: at #23 Colorado St., at #41 Tennessee, at #63 Arkansas St.

EAST CAROLINA
CFCC Rank: 48
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 2-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 4-0
Key wins: #59 North Carolina, at #62 Virginia Tech
Key losses: at #50 South Carolina, at #72 Temple

MEMPHIS
CFCC Rank: 49
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: N/A
51-75: 1-1
76-100: 1-0
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #57 Cincinnati, #79 MTSU
Key losses: at #5 Ole Miss, at #15 UCLA, #60 Houston

UCF
CFCC Rank: 54
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-0
51-75: 2-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 2-1
Key wins: #47 BYU, at #60 Houston, #72 Temple
Key losses: at #24 Missouri, #65 Penn St. (neutral field), at #113 UConn

CINCINNATI
CFCC Rank: 57
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 0-2
51-75: 1-0
76-100: N/A
101+: 4-0
Key wins: #68 Toledo
Key losses: at #17 Ohio St., at #32 Miami, #49 Memphis

HOUSTON
CFCC Rank: 60
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 1-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 3-1
Key wins: at #49 Memphis, #72 Temple
Key losses: at #47 BYU, #54 UCF, #105 UTSA

TEMPLE
CFCC Rank: 72
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 1-0
51-75: 0-2
76-100: 1-1
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #48 ECU, at #94 Vanderbilt
Key losses: at#54 UCF, at #60 Houston, #81 Navy

LOUISIANA TECH
CFCC Rank: 53
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: N/A
51-75: 1-0
76-100: 1-0
101+: 4-1
Key wins: at #58 ULL, #78 UTEP
Key losses: at #1 Auburn, at E13 Oklahoma, FCS Northwestern St.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
CFCC Rank: 58
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: 2-0
101+: 2-0
Key wins: #63 Arkansas St., #90 South Alabama, at #93 Texas St.
Key losses: at #5 Ole Miss, at #31 Boise St., #53 LA Tech


DISCUSS!

Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

An 8-3 Houston vs 8-3 Cincinnati would be okay with me for all the marbles on 12/4

Most telling stat to me. Marshall hasn't even faced a Top 75 team. Colorado State is 3-1.

One more Boise loss and Marshall is relegated to the Heart of Dallas.

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

Ah, the "biggest problem" continues to be the failure of the AAC teams...including and especially UC...to win the big games.

(11-04-2014 02:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

Ah, the "biggest problem" continues to be the failure of the AAC teams...including and especially UC...to win the big games.

Would you rather lose the big games, or never play them at all?

At least there's a shot at winning.

(11-04-2014 01:47 PM)YNot Wrote:  Contenders: based on a comparison of wins and losses and College Football Computer Composite (CFCC) Rankings - November 3, 2014

MARSHALL
CFCC Rank: 22
Overall: 8-0
Top-25: N/A
26-50: N/A
51-75: N/A
76-100: 2-0
101+: 6-0
Key wins: at #97 Akron, #79 MTSU
Key losses: none

COLORADO STATE
CFCC Rank: 23
Overall: 8-1
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 3-1
51-75: N/A
76-100: 3-0
101+: 1-0
Key wins: at #40 Boston College, at #42 Nevada, #45 Utah St., #88 Wyoming, at #89 SJSU, #96 Colorado (neutral field)
Key losses: #31 Boise St.

BOISE STATE
CFCC Rank: 31
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: 1-1
26-50: 2-0
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 2-0
Key wins: #23 Colorado St., at #42 Nevada, #47 BYU, #58 ULL
Key losses: #5 Ole Miss (neutral field), at #55 Air Force

NEVADA
CFCC Rank: 42
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: 1-1
51-75: N/A
76-100: 3-0
101+: 1-0
Key wins: at #47 BYU, #86 SDSU, #87 Washington St., at #89 SJSU
Key losses: #23 Colorado St., at #25 Arizona, #31 Boise St.

UTAH STATE
CFCC Rank: 45
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 4-0
Key wins: at #47 BYU, #55 Air Force
Key losses: at #23 Colorado St., at #41 Tennessee, at #63 Arkansas St.

EAST CAROLINA
CFCC Rank: 48
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 3-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #59 North Carolina, at #60 Houston, at #62 Virginia Tech
Key losses: at #50 South Carolina, at #72 Temple

MEMPHIS
CFCC Rank: 49
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: N/A
51-75: 1-1
76-100: 1-0
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #57 Cincinnati, #79 MTSU
Key losses: at #5 Ole Miss, at #15 UCLA, #60 Houston

UCF
CFCC Rank: 54
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-0
51-75: 2-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 2-1
Key wins: #47 BYU, at #60 Houston, #72 Temple
Key losses: at #24 Missouri, #65 Penn St. (neutral field), at #113 UConn

CINCINNATI
CFCC Rank: 57
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 0-2
51-75: 1-0
76-100: N/A
101+: 4-0
Key wins: #68 Toledo
Key losses: at #17 Ohio St., at #32 Miami, #49 Memphis

HOUSTON
CFCC Rank: 60
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 1-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 3-1
Key wins: at #49 Memphis, #72 Temple
Key losses: at #47 BYU, #54 UCF, #105 UTSA

TEMPLE
CFCC Rank: 72
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 1-0
51-75: 0-2
76-100: 1-1
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #48 ECU, at #94 Vanderbilt
Key losses: at#54 UCF, at #60 Houston, #81 Navy

LOUISIANA TECH
CFCC Rank: 53
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: N/A
51-75: 1-0
76-100: 1-0
101+: 4-1
Key wins: at #58 ULL, #78 UTEP
Key losses: at #1 Auburn, at E13 Oklahoma, FCS Northwestern St.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
CFCC Rank: 58
Overall: 5-3
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 1-1
76-100: 2-0
101+: 2-0
Key wins: #63 Arkansas St., #90 South Alabama, at #93 Texas St.
Key losses: at #5 Ole Miss, at #31 Boise St., #53 LA Tech


DISCUSS!

EAST CAROLINA
CFCC Rank: 48
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 3-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #59 North Carolina, at #60 Houston, at #62 Virginia Tech
Key losses: at #50 South Carolina, at #72 Temple


I don't recall ECU beating Houston. Must be a typo. If not Houston has 2 AAC loses (UCF).

(11-04-2014 03:12 PM)Tony85 Wrote:  EAST CAROLINA
CFCC Rank: 48
Overall: 6-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 3-1
76-100: N/A
101+: 3-0
Key wins: #59 North Carolina, at #60 Houston, at #62 Virginia Tech
Key losses: at #50 South Carolina, at #72 Temple


I don't recall ECU beating Houston. Must be a typo. If not Houston has 2 AAC loses (UCF).

Good catch. I'll fix in the OP.

Well, we do have two top 75 teams coming up. La Tech will be in the 40s by the time we play them unless they lose to Rice at home.

At this point I would guess Boise will get the spot if they win out and CSU will get it if Boise trips and CSU wins the MWC. Dark horse might be Air Force if they can beat CSU and Boise looses. They would have wins over Boise, CSU and a quality win in the MWC-C game.

(11-04-2014 02:48 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Most telling stat to me. Marshall hasn't even faced a Top 75 team. Colorado State is 3-1.

One more Boise loss and Marshall is relegated to the Heart of Dallas.

Agreed. I think the CFP Selection Committee will act similarly to the NCAA bball committee in this regard. Marshall will continue to be challenged by its ridiculously weak schedule. A win over Louisiana Tech in the C-USA championship would help their resume, but it will still be hard to compete with either CSU or Boise. If the CFP Selection Committee wants to send the message that it's okay to schedule weakly, then they will pick Marshall. But, I don't think that's where college football is headed.

Colorado St. - 3-1 record against top 50 teams, including two road wins. Plus they still get #55 Air Force on the road and likely face #42 Nevada in the MWC championship (if Boise loses).

Boise St. - 3-1 record against top 50 teams. The Air Force loss hurts, but Air Force is ranked almost 25 places ahead of Marshall's best win. Boise also still gets #45 Utah St. and would have the MWC championship, likely against #42 Nevada.

ECU would still have an outside chance if the Pirates can top #57 Cincinnati on the road and #54 UCF in the finale. At that point, ECU would be 4-2 against competition at the level where Marshall had zero games and 6-0 in games similar to Marshall's schedule. But, the American might get bit because ECU misses Memphis on the schedule.

(11-04-2014 02:56 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

Ah, the "biggest problem" continues to be the failure of the AAC teams...including and especially UC...to win the big games.

Would you rather lose the big games, or never play them at all?

At least there's a shot at winning.

First, I'd like to see UC winning our games. If UC had beaten either OSU or Miami (the real one...) and taken care of business against the conference, then Marshall would be an after-thought. Ditto with ECU or UCF...

Second, I'd like people to stop kvetching about Marshall. If Marshall gets the Access Bowl because they won their games while the AAC teams did not, that's not Marshall's problem.

^^ Agree with Jerry here. I am tired of reading all of these threads about Marshall. Does their schedule suck? Sure. But IMO teams in this conference with 2-3 losses are being a bunch of hypocrites by opining that Marshall doesn't deserve an Access Bowl due to their SOS. If one of us finished with one loss and that was a nail-biter to a top 25 program it is one thing to say Marshall doesn't belong, but frankly none of us have a leg to stand on.

(11-04-2014 03:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:56 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

Ah, the "biggest problem" continues to be the failure of the AAC teams...including and especially UC...to win the big games.

Would you rather lose the big games, or never play them at all?

At least there's a shot at winning.

First, I'd like to see UC winning our games. If UC had beaten either OSU or Miami (the real one...) and taken care of business against the conference, then Marshall would be an after-thought. Ditto with ECU or UCF...

Second, I'd like people to stop kvetching about Marshall. If Marshall gets the Access Bowl because they won their games while the AAC teams did not, that's not Marshall's problem.

That's not Marshall's problem, sure. But it IS our problem, and the problem of the committee. If Marshall gets in, why don't we just schedule 4 Northwestern Wyoming State College of Beautification and Design schools and hope the dice falls our way?

My opinion is poor scheduling will whittle out the teams in the long run. You don't gain depth and experience by sleep walking through your opponents.

(11-04-2014 03:20 PM)banker Wrote:  Well, we do have two top 75 teams coming up. La Tech will be in the 40s by the time we play them unless they lose to Rice at home.

At this point I would guess Boise will get the spot if they win out and CSU will get it if Boise trips and CSU wins the MWC. Dark horse might be Air Force if they can beat CSU and Boise looses. They would have wins over Boise, CSU and a quality win in the MWC-C game.

It's a shame that Louisville backed out of the Herd's scheduled game with them. If that hadn't happened, all of this would have been much clearer, win or lose, and without all of the noise.

(11-04-2014 04:07 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 03:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:56 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:51 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 02:27 PM)uccheese Wrote:  Marshall would need to lose for anything to matter. If they lose, we would need Boise to either lose the title game or lose earlier and Colorado St lose or lose the title game. If both things happen, whichever AAC team can finish with 1 conference loss can get there.

The biggest problem continues to be Marshall.

Ah, the "biggest problem" continues to be the failure of the AAC teams...including and especially UC...to win the big games.

Would you rather lose the big games, or never play them at all?

At least there's a shot at winning.

First, I'd like to see UC winning our games. If UC had beaten either OSU or Miami (the real one...) and taken care of business against the conference, then Marshall would be an after-thought. Ditto with ECU or UCF...

Second, I'd like people to stop kvetching about Marshall. If Marshall gets the Access Bowl because they won their games while the AAC teams did not, that's not Marshall's problem.

That's not Marshall's problem, sure. But it IS our problem, and the problem of the committee. If Marshall gets in, why don't we just schedule 4 Northwestern Wyoming State College of Beautification and Design schools and hope the dice falls our way?

My opinion is poor scheduling will whittle out the teams in the long run. You don't gain depth and experience by sleep walking through your opponents.

I guess "you" could schedule 4 "Northwestern Wyoming State College of Beautification and Designs"...or to borrow from (then Ohio State-now-WVU President) E. Gordon Gee, "Little Sisters of the Poor"... but why would fans continue to pay to see your team play. Or more poignantly, since money makes the world go round, why would any school continue to pay these institutions instead of getting paid by the majors to play?

Not sure if y'all know this, but Marshall's schedule is horrible.

Too bad the CFP committee isn't ranking G5 teams separately. We could find out tonight how much SOS really counts.

(11-04-2014 05:07 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Too bad the CFP committee isn't ranking G5 teams separately. We could find out tonight how much SOS really counts.

I wished they did. I think it would make an outside viewer more interested in the G5's race for the golden ticket. Could help TV numbers and added publicity. Good for everyone.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CFCC Rank: 61
Overall: 7-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 0-1
76-100: 1-0
101+: 5-0
Key wins: at #90 South Alabama, #115 Appalachian State
Key losses: at #33 Georgia Tech, at #56 North Carolina State

(11-04-2014 07:06 PM)I AM an Eagle! Wrote:  GEORGIA SOUTHERN
CFCC Rank: 61
Overall: 7-2
Top-25: N/A
26-50: 0-1
51-75: 0-1
76-100: 1-0
101+: 5-0
Key wins: at #90 South Alabama, #115 Appalachian State
Key losses: at #33 Georgia Tech, at #56 North Carolina State

I actually ran the analysis for Georgia Southern, but because they aren't bowl eligible - left them out...They wouldn't out pace Marshall or the MWC contenders, but with Navy and Texas St. road games looming, Georgia Southern could have a pretty decent resume.

What is the team looking like for 2015? Do you return key starters?