TripleA
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ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
Okay, before everybody starts bitching, this index is a combination of performance to date, plus projected finish, based upon each team's remaining schedule.
Like any ranking, it has its flaws, but it's fun to me, especially since Memphis is ranked the highest of all AAC teams. Actually seems feasible, since we're up fairly high now, and have the easiest remaining schedule, of the top AAC teams.
Unfortunately, Marshall is ranked slightly higher (#28), due in part, of course, to being projected not to lose a game.
32. Memphis
41. Houston
47. ECU
54. UCF
60. Cincinnati
69. Temple
99. USF
106. UConn
107. Tulane
114. Tulsa
126. SMU
http://espn.go.com/college-football/stat...eamratings
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2014 04:30 PM by TripleA.)
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10-27-2014 04:03 PM |
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ncbeta
Suffering from trolliosis
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I Root For: ECU
Location: Tennessee, maybe KY.
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thorugh Week # 9
They give y'all a 47% chance to win out (only 12% for us). A 9 win Memphis team would be pretty stellar.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2014 04:07 PM by ncbeta.)
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10-27-2014 04:06 PM |
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Ramen_Tiger
Banned
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I Root For: Memphis
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thorugh Week # 9
We are above Tennessee so I am cool with it!
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10-27-2014 04:07 PM |
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VirginiaPirate
2nd String
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thorugh Week # 9
I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
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10-27-2014 04:13 PM |
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mairving
Ignant Homer
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I Root For: Memphis
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thorugh Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:06 PM)ncbeta Wrote: They give y'all a 47% chance to win out (only 12% for us). A 9 win Memphis team would be pretty stellar.
Pretty good chance to win out with our remaining schedule:
-95% chance to beat a 1-6 Tulsa team at home
-66% chance to beat a 4-3 Temple team on the road
-87% chance to beat a 2-5 Tulane team on the road
-92% chance to beat a 3-5 South Florida team at home
-94% chance to beat a 1-6 UConn team at home
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10-27-2014 04:25 PM |
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TripleA
Legend
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I Root For: Memphis Tigers
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote: I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.
I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.
But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.
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10-27-2014 04:35 PM |
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mairving
Ignant Homer
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I Root For: Memphis
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote: I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.
I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.
But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.
It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.
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10-27-2014 04:45 PM |
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Ned Low
All American
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I Root For: ECU
Location: Durham, NC
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote: I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.
I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.
But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.
It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.
If anything, I would give us a 50% chance of beating UCF and a 60% chance at Temple. I would keep the Cinci game at 49%.
I guess time will tell.
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10-27-2014 05:41 PM |
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uconnwhaler
Special Teams
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I Root For: uconn
Location: Hartford, CT
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:03 PM)TripleA Wrote: Okay, before everybody starts bitching, this index is a combination of performance to date, plus projected finish, based upon each team's remaining schedule.
Like any ranking, it has its flaws, but it's fun to me, especially since Memphis is ranked the highest of all AAC teams. Actually seems feasible, since we're up fairly high now, and have the easiest remaining schedule, of the top AAC teams.
Unfortunately, Marshall is ranked slightly higher (#28), due in part, of course, to being projected not to lose a game.
32. Memphis
41. Houston
47. ECU
54. UCF
60. Cincinnati
69. Temple
99. USF
106. UConn
107. Tulane
114. Tulsa
126. SMU
http://espn.go.com/college-football/stat...eamratings
Moving up :)
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10-27-2014 05:56 PM |
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TripleA
Legend
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I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: The woods of Bammer
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote: I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.
I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.
But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.
It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.
Okay, that's a more technical way to say the odds are better that they lose a game, to the point that a loss is likely calculated into the results. How's that? :)
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10-27-2014 06:31 PM |
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MemphisTigerFreak
Fear God, Not Man
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I Root For: Memphis
Location: Earth
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote: (10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote: I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.
I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.
Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.
I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.
But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.
It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.
49% against Cincy means Cincy has a 51% chance of winning which means they have Cincy winning that game factored in.
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10-28-2014 08:33 AM |
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Insane_Baboon
1st String
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
They have UCF as the highest chance to win the AAC at 63.3%
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10-28-2014 09:06 AM |
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mairving
Ignant Homer
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
How can 2 teams (New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan) be worse than SMU?
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10-28-2014 09:10 AM |
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fishpro1098
All American
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I Root For: Temple
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RE: ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) through Week # 9
(10-28-2014 09:10 AM)mairving Wrote: How can 2 teams (New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan) be worse than SMU?
SMU has something like the 8th toughest schedule. Factoring that in, I guess.
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10-28-2014 09:27 AM |
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