Teams with first loss week 6: 6
Oregon
Brigham Young
Texas A&M
Alabama
Nebraska
UCLA


Teams with first win week 6: 1
Miami (OH)

Teams with 2nd loss week 6: 9
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wisconsin
Stanford
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana State
Cincinnati
Southern California
Nevada

Percent of Last Week's Undefeated Teams with 1st loss:
Week 1: 31.00% (40 of 129)
Week 2: 36.36% (32 of 88)
Week 3: 39.29% (22 of 56)
Week 4: 26.47% (9 of 34)
Week 5: 32% (8 of 25)
Week 6: 35.29% (6 of 17)

Week 6 Thoughts:

-The max number of undefeated teams we can end up with in now 6 (Marshall, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, TCU/Baylor, Arizona, Ole Miss/Mississippi State/Auburn)

-Huge week. We lost our final undefeated Big Ten team, making the first power conference without an undefeated team. It likely won’t be there long though as other upsets have left only Arizona left in the PAC-12 undefeated, 3 in the SEC, and 2 each in the ACC and Big 12. Many top 25 upsets, effecting the rankings a lot.

-Group of 5 bid: We are now down to 1 undefeated Group of 5 team and five 1-loss teams. The Sunbelt lost its last 1 loss team with Louisiana-Monroe departing the list (Conference USA also currently has zero 1 loss teams, but will regain one if Marshall loses). The odds of a 2 loss team representing here are increasingly quickly, but almost definitely will not happen unless Marshall loses a game somewhere though (a 1 loss ECU might jump Marshall though, or might not). The current 1 loss teams are East Carolina, Temple, Colorado State, Air Force, and Northern Illinois.

Week 7 Thoughts:

-We have one game between winless teams as UMass plays Kent State. Winless Troy is favored this week by 8 over New Mexico State.

-There are 2 games between undefeated teams next week. We have TCU visiting Baylor and Auburn at Mississippi State. Our other undefeateds are Middle Tennessee @ undefeated Marshall, undefeated Florida State @ Syracuse, Duke @ undefeated Georgia Tech, North Carolina @ undefeated Norte Dame, undefeated Ole Miss @ Texas A&M, and USC @ undefeated Arizona.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 3, independents: 1, total: 10

Florida State
Georgia Tech
Baylor
TCU
Marshall
Arizona
Auburn
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Notre Dame

1-loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 7, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 7, SEC: 6, Sunbelt: 0, independents: 1, total: 31

Louisville
East Carolina
Temple
Oklahoma State
Ohio State
Michigan State
Rutgers
Iowa
Minnesota
Air Force
Colorado State
Kentucky
Georgia
Kansas State
Florida
Missouri
Northern Illinois
California
Arizona State
Penn State
Washington
Duke
Utah
Oregon State
Oregon
Brigham Young
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Alabama
Nebraska
UCLA



Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, MAC: 2, Sunbelt: 2, total: 5
Southern Methodist
Massachusetts
Kent State
Idaho
Troy

2 more undefeated teams are guaranteed to go down this week.
TCU plays Baylor
Auburn plays Miss. St.

Quote:-Group of 5 bid: We are now down to 1 undefeated Group of 5 team and five 1-loss teams. The Sunbelt lost its last 1 loss team with Louisiana-Monroe departing the list (Conference USA also currently has zero 1 loss teams, but will regain one if Marshall loses). The odds of a 2 loss team representing here are increasingly quickly, but almost definitely will not happen unless Marshall loses a game somewhere though (a 1 loss ECU might jump Marshall though, or might not). The current 1 loss teams are East Carolina, Temple, Colorado State, Air Force, and Northern Illinois.

Marshall has the easiest schedule left. Given their margins of victory, it's tough for anyone to expect them to lose a game, although that's possible.

Temple's surprisingly good -- ECU has to face them, as well as a not-so-easy-Cinci and not-so-easy UCF -- and Memphis who's proven to be tough. I can much more easily see ECU losing a game, despite ECU being better than Marshall.

Colorado State & Air Force -- tough schedules + MWC. Tough 2L Nevada & 2L Boise will get in the way of them Not losing another game, along with Utah State.

Temple has the hardest left -- still to play AAC toughest + @Penn State.

Northern Illinois has a not-so-tough schedule, but more difficult than Marshall (although NIU isn't as good as Marshall so far this year, still figuring out their QB situation)... they have to play Toledo, CMU (who's skitzophrenic), and @WMU (who has shown to be able to go blow-for-blow with almost any G5)... while having to play in the MACC against BGSU or Akron, which won't be easy.

In the end, we could have Marshall @1L, ECU, NIU, CSU, and AF all with 2 losses... which brings in Memphis, Boise, Nevada, Toledo, etc 2L teams into the mix to compare to 1L Marshall, and really changes things up. That's MY prediction of what will happen.

I could easily see by end of the season:
1L Marshall (CUSA) -- Easiest Schedule. Margin of Victory means something in a close comparison.

1L NIU (MAC) -- Not easy, but not hard schedule. How Arkansas fares and how good MAC East Champ is, along with margin of victory matters. Will beat out Marshall in a tie in record due to sched.

2L ECU / 2L Memphis (AAC) -- A loss by ECU to say, @Temple will take the punch out of things. If Memphis wins out rest of the way, beating ECU -- they'll compete with 1L NIU for who's on top. No Champ Game for any AAC team hurts when comparing.

2L Boise St (MW) -- Boise losing to Ole Miss in a barn-burner until 4th Q, but losing to a surprisingly competitive AF team... but winning out rest of the way + MW Championship? They'd beat out a 2L ECU. You want your losses early, not later. And they very well may take out a 1L NIU, unless NIU's wins are powerful & strong against the toughest teams they face.

So the week started with 17 undefeated teams, 6 of those loss and now they are down to 10.

Something is not adding up there.

I think you are missing Oklahoma from the teams with first loss, meaning there were 7 teams total with their first loss.

(10-09-2014 06:50 AM)goofus Wrote:  So the week started with 17 undefeated teams, 6 of those loss and now they are down to 10.

Something is not adding up there.

I think you are missing Oklahoma from the teams with first loss, meaning there were 7 teams total with their first loss.

Thank you and corrected. I keep telling myself not to post these late as I don't double check as well and then do it anyway.

ECU and Memphis don't play each other this year so, I'd expect them to have the same shot as ECU at this point.

(10-09-2014 05:35 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  ECU and Memphis don't play each other this year so, I'd expect them to have the same shot as ECU at this point.

I'd say they are close, but it's conceivable that a 1 loss ECU might (not will, but might) be out an undefeated Marshall. I don't think a 2 loss Memphis can. If ECU looses another one though, I put the odds on ECU as better than Memphis at that point though.

(10-09-2014 05:42 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(10-09-2014 05:35 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  ECU and Memphis don't play each other this year so, I'd expect them to have the same shot as ECU at this point.

I'd say they are close, but it's conceivable that a 1 loss ECU might (not will, but might) be out an undefeated Marshall. I don't think a 2 loss Memphis can. If ECU looses another one though, I put the odds on Marshall as better than ECU at that point though.

Marshall's been reading their press clippings. They'll drop one this week.

We do not play Memphis. Look up the schedules for each school before making an opinion on how they will finish the season.

(10-09-2014 05:42 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(10-09-2014 05:35 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  ECU and Memphis don't play each other this year so, I'd expect them to have the same shot as ECU at this point.

I'd say they are close, but it's conceivable that a 1 loss ECU might (not will, but might) be out an undefeated Marshall. I don't think a 2 loss Memphis can. If ECU looses another one though, I put the odds on ECU as better than Memphis at that point though.

They both play Temple in back to back weeks...In fact, Temple plays UCF, ECU, MEM in consecutive weeks. If Temple wins against UCF and ECU but loses to Memphis and Marshall lays an egg somewhere against that JUCO schedule, it opens the door for Memphis whose 2 losses are to two top 10 teams (one is now top 5 and another top 15).

I'm not a fan of Marshall, nor do I think they'd deserve it...BUT, an undefeated G5 team is very compelling to fans as a whole. Think Boise's early years, TCU...we love the underdog. I wouldn't be shocked to see them make the playoffs as long as those playing an actual D1 football schedule lose

You could end up with 10-1 ECU vs 9-2 UCF last game, in what could be a defacto championship game for the Access spot. Memphis could also be in the mix, as well as temple. Getting interesting at the top. Even Cincy could be in the mix with a run. What the AAC really needs is Marshall to drop one so a 2 loss team could still get the bid.

We have a weak schedule?

I'm glad that AAC fans post about it every few minutes, otherwise I would forget.

(10-10-2014 07:45 AM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  I'm not a fan of Marshall, nor do I think they'd deserve it...BUT, an undefeated G5 team is very compelling to fans as a whole. Think Boise's early years, TCU...we love the underdog. I wouldn't be shocked to see them make the playoffs as long as those playing an actual D1 football schedule lose

I agree. The key here is for Marshall to remain unbeaten. If they do, I doubt it will make any difference what anybody else does. My reasoning here is that if the selection committee passed over them, they would be seen as punishing Marshall for the sin of having been left behind in realignment. That would not be seen as a compelling argument by many fans.

So despite the fact that the Herd's best win might be against Middle Tennessee State, that would probably be enough. But if they have even a single loss, they will have no chance at all of getting an Access bid, even if schools like ECU have 2 or 3 losses.