(09-17-2014 10:59 AM)Antarius Wrote: (09-17-2014 09:10 AM)temchugh Wrote: (09-16-2014 06:47 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote: Karlgaard explained it succinctly: if adding a school to a conference decreases that conference's television revenue per member, then that school is not getting invited, nohow, no way. $$$ >> reputation.
Karlgaard also explained that joining a P5 conference would likely greatly increase the budget deficit of the athletic program (at least in the short term) because the increase in shared revenue would be much less than the increase in expenditures required to be even remotely competitive (in terms of facilities, coaches salaries, etc.). The $30 million Rice currently spends plus $20 million in shared revenue would put us way at the bottom of spending in a P5 conference. Of course our direct revenue would increase some due to the increased interest in the games, but our direct revenue would never come close to that of a big state school. It would take a lot of work for Rice to come close even to the direct revenue of a bigger P5 private school. In the long term, if the program were run extremely well, being in a P5 conference might help the budget deficit. However, the potential for making it worse in the long term is also very real.
Being in a P5 would give us many advantages that weren't directly related to athletics. While we would increase the budget deficit in the short (and potentially long) term, Rice would likely see an increase in exposure, number of applicants, rankings, donations etc.
Of course, this is all conjecture. As Frizzy said, no p5 would invite us as things currently stand.
Since I brought it up, I'll reply.
I don't generally disagree with anything anyone has said, but I'd note that the SEC currently has #2,4,5,9, 15 and 28 in one division and #6, 16, 21 and 24 in the other.
Giving a simple example... there are a myriad of possibilities...
Whomever wins the SEC is in the playoff, right? I think that is a given, but how much would it be worth to the SEC to have 2 or even 3 teams in that playoff? Given the rankings, all it would take is a loss by Oregon (or even potentially only an uninspiring win) and the SEC could have 3 teams in... (ignoring the voting biases)...
What if #6 Georgia (who has already lost to #16 SC) beats #5 Auburn and Auburn beats A&M? Suddenly rather than potentially 3 teams in, they MIGHT have only one. That has to be worth a WHOLE lot of money and could literally happen every year. When you combine that with the fact that they often have some VERY high dollar out-of-conference games (against OTHER top 20 teams)... and the worst team in SEC west is #46 and the NEXT worst is #28, It's possible that a top 30 team doesn't go to a bowl because the conference schedules are just too tough AND they don't have much flexibility in their scheduling.
My point being that you're not necessarily talking about merely taking the same pot of money and dividing it more ways... but that a STRATEGIC addition of a team that a) won't be recruiting EXACTLY the same athletes b) might be committed to quality football, but not necessarily doing what it takes to consistently be top 20 football, while investing solidly in the other sports that bring 'brownie' points but no money... c) provides a quality, but not 'killer' opponent that could arguably make it easier for them to make more money. I mean let's be serious... Arkansas could easily be a top 15 or 20 team if they wanted to... could we? Top 40 for certain... top 20? I'd say that would be somewhat rare even in our perfect world.
I know we'd have to spend more money to get it back, but fortunately the income stream in p5's is predictable and we have an endowment that can manage an awful lot of float (when the income is that predictable)... but we STILL wouldn't take the academic or character risks that big schools can get away with.
The bottom line is that IF any of them called, we have the ABILITY to do what is necessary. The questions are 1) why would they call and 2) what will they require of us. I think our biggest selling points to both the University AND a p5 conference is that we would be good enough not to hurt the conference SOS, but not SO good that we would frequently make a 'murderers row' even worse.... and that we would EXPAND, rather than dilute the qualities of the conference... especially with regard to academics and 'other' sports. Frankly, I think our demographics would make us a nice target for MANY Olympic sports that we could and would have to fund. I think our biggest issues would be internal come in when we regularly go 4-0 OOC and then struggle to win 2 in conference to go to a bowl...