(09-11-2014 12:23 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote: (09-10-2014 11:45 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (09-10-2014 11:11 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: (09-10-2014 08:18 PM)tnzazz Wrote: The next CUSA team to leave will be whomever the AAC asks next.
I can't quite envision any scenario -- at least for the next 7-8-9 years -- in which the AAC invites any new program to join the league, except for Army, Air Force, and/or BYU.
Yup. Aresco has all but said as much.
I think he was assuming that the current membership would be staying and that adding additional schools wasn't likely at this time. If two members left for other conferences, then I don't see them staying at eight schools. If UConn is one of them, then there isn't a strong need to add a school in that region (not that I think any of them is a good fit and I don't believe there is a MAC school ready to jump to the AAC). I also don't think Army, Air Force or BYU would join them, so you are pretty much looking at two more CUSA schools. While Rice makes a lot of sense, I don't know that Houston (or SMU) would want them in the same conference again. My guess would be Southern Miss due to their history with most members and either Marshall or UAB.
There would be 10 schools left--not 8. Honestly, I think we stay at 10 in if this happens--but I'll go ahead and play the game. If UConn is still around, Army might be interesting. If UConn and Cinci are gone, shifting south and west with some large public schools might make more sense (with Navy moving to the eastern division). If Im picking the replacements in the west, I avoid anymore small private schools and look to large public institutions. In that case--its possible that CUSA only loses one team---and possibly it loses none.
East
ECU
Temple
Navy
UCF
USF
Memphis
West
Tulsa
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Texas St or UTSA (while my initial thought was to take just one of these two, taking both is also an interesting option)
UL-L or Ark St (take one, unless you take both Texas twins)
Ark State---13K enrollment
Texas State-35K enrollment
UL-L 17K enrollment
N Texas-36K enrollment
UTSA--31K enrollment
S Miss--16K enrollment
My inclination is to look at attendance, enrollment, market overlap, and position within the state. For instance---while not super big, Ark St is interesting as it is a true #2 option in a state where the AAC has no school--plus it fits in the AAC western footprint. UL-L is not really all that big, but they seem to generating the attendance of a bigger school. N Texas is huge---but it overlaps with SMU. Texas St is huge with good facilities, but its attendance numbers are not impressive. Great tradition at S Miss, but its a relatively small school that is cash strapped. Basically, they all have some great points and some not so great points. I'd lean toward taking 1 in Texas---I actually think Texas State is the best long term option---but UTSA would also be a good choice and is clearly farther along at this time. N Texas could be good too---but I hate to double dip the Dallas market. That said, if you look primarily at size, you have to scoop them up. I have to say, the more I think about it, the more I'm intrigued with the idea of taking both the Texas twins. That could ultimately be the most interesting move (the western version of UCF-USF).
Assuming you take just one Texas team, then I'd add either UL-L or Ark State. Either would be a nice compliment to the western division. Tulane might want to block Tulane, so it might be Ark State would get the last slot. Bottom line, I could see CUSA getting out of a small realignment scenario without losing a single team.