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ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
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ODUBB35 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
Can't turn the ball over this week.

My gut (or heart) feeling is that we won't, and we keep their running game in check.

ODU 35, NC State 31
09-02-2014 07:36 AM
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djnva Offline
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Post: #22
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
It's all about 3rd downs. I think we'll hold up okay against their run, but we absolutely need to stop their passing game.

Can ODU win? Sure. Will they? Not sure.

Okay, it's also about Heinicke. If he tucks and runs when the chances arise he sucks up some of the defenders a bit closer to the LOS and then the WRs have more room. We need a big special teams play, maybe a pick 6 and our offense cannot go into a shell for a long period of time. Three and outs when our defense is struggling do not help.

I'll call it 37-29 NCSU. We score and hit 2 point conversion to get within 8, but run out of time.
09-02-2014 08:15 AM
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Les Geaux Offline
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Post: #23
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-01-2014 08:29 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:28 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:21 PM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  We gave up a record 417 yards in the air to a bottom tier FCS team with a QB that is not very good. That does not bode well for us. I would think their defense overall is better than ours. So....it would probably be the best victory in recent ODU football history. I just hope we can get it done.

My seats don't allow me to see schemes so much and I haven't yet seen a video, but what I am hoping is that many of those HU passing yards were screens or slants and flats against a deep zone. Hence my comment about proper pass defense schemes.

That would be accurate. A screen and the fake end around were te only big palys i can remember giving up.

1st Quarter-
3rd and 15 at HAMP 46 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 21 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down

2nd Quarter-
3rd and 2 at ODU 28 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 27 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

3rd Quarter-
1st and 10 at HAMP 47 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 23 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at ODU 30 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at HAMP 15 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 19 yds to the Hampt 34 for a 1ST down

4th Quarter-
2nd and 6 at HAMP 25 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Jorrian Washington for 75 yds for a TD, (Anthony Prevost KICK)

3rd and 9 at ODU 29 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

Let's not act like the defense was on point beyond one or two plays, come on now. Those were just plays of 20+ yards (one being 19).

This stuff about it being a slant/screen/flat pass is pointless.
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2014 09:11 AM by Les Geaux.)
09-02-2014 09:10 AM
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Post: #24
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
+1
09-02-2014 09:16 AM
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ODUalum78 Online
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Post: #25
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 09:10 AM)Les Geaux Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:29 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:28 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:21 PM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  We gave up a record 417 yards in the air to a bottom tier FCS team with a QB that is not very good. That does not bode well for us. I would think their defense overall is better than ours. So....it would probably be the best victory in recent ODU football history. I just hope we can get it done.

My seats don't allow me to see schemes so much and I haven't yet seen a video, but what I am hoping is that many of those HU passing yards were screens or slants and flats against a deep zone. Hence my comment about proper pass defense schemes.

That would be accurate. A screen and the fake end around were te only big palys i can remember giving up.

1st Quarter-
3rd and 15 at HAMP 46 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 21 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down

2nd Quarter-
3rd and 2 at ODU 28 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 27 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

3rd Quarter-
1st and 10 at HAMP 47 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 23 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at ODU 30 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at HAMP 15 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 19 yds to the Hampt 34 for a 1ST down

4th Quarter-
2nd and 6 at HAMP 25 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Jorrian Washington for 75 yds for a TD, (Anthony Prevost KICK)

3rd and 9 at ODU 29 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

Let's not act like the defense was on point beyond one or two plays, come on now. Those were just plays of 20+ yards (one being 19).

This stuff about it being a slant/screen/flat pass is pointless.

Not pointless at all, because it goes to the point about a deep zone scheme.

In our 4-2-5 we really only have 2 linebackers. If we are playing the 5 in a deep zone, then screens are open all day long, and if a linebacker blitzes then slants/flats are open as well. All a WR or RB has to do is get outside of the DL, and beat one linebacker (or none if a LB blitz is on ) until he gets into the secondary.
These plays will go for substantial yardage.

An opponent can get get big yardage all day long and the key will be red zone defense; as we have experienced against us on more than a few occasions in the last 2 years.
Of course, the lack of tackling in the secondary will be problematic whether you are in a tight man or a deep zone, and that is our key.

I don't care if a team runs up 600 yds on our D as long as they don't score.

04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2014 09:39 AM by ODUalum78.)
09-02-2014 09:36 AM
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Post: #26
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 08:15 AM)djnva Wrote:  It's all about 3rd downs. I think we'll hold up okay against their run, but we absolutely need to stop their passing game.

Can ODU win? Sure. Will they? Not sure.

Okay, it's also about Heinicke. If he tucks and runs when the chances arise he sucks up some of the defenders a bit closer to the LOS and then the WRs have more room. We need a big special teams play, maybe a pick 6 and our offense cannot go into a shell for a long period of time. Three and outs when our defense is struggling do not help.

I'll call it 37-29 NCSU. We score and hit 2 point conversion to get within 8, but run out of time.

We definitely need Heinicke to tuck and run and rollout and throw to win this game. Mabey he spreads the NcState defense out and our pass coverage improves enough that we win.

ODU 41 NcState 38
09-02-2014 09:39 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #27
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 09:36 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 09:10 AM)Les Geaux Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:29 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:28 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:21 PM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  We gave up a record 417 yards in the air to a bottom tier FCS team with a QB that is not very good. That does not bode well for us. I would think their defense overall is better than ours. So....it would probably be the best victory in recent ODU football history. I just hope we can get it done.

My seats don't allow me to see schemes so much and I haven't yet seen a video, but what I am hoping is that many of those HU passing yards were screens or slants and flats against a deep zone. Hence my comment about proper pass defense schemes.

That would be accurate. A screen and the fake end around were te only big palys i can remember giving up.

1st Quarter-
3rd and 15 at HAMP 46 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 21 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down

2nd Quarter-
3rd and 2 at ODU 28 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 27 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

3rd Quarter-
1st and 10 at HAMP 47 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 23 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at ODU 30 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at HAMP 15 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 19 yds to the Hampt 34 for a 1ST down

4th Quarter-
2nd and 6 at HAMP 25 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Jorrian Washington for 75 yds for a TD, (Anthony Prevost KICK)

3rd and 9 at ODU 29 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

Let's not act like the defense was on point beyond one or two plays, come on now. Those were just plays of 20+ yards (one being 19).

This stuff about it being a slant/screen/flat pass is pointless.

Not pointless at all, because it goes to the point about a deep zone scheme.

In our 4-2-5 we really only have 2 linebackers. If we are playing the 5 in a deep zone, then screens are open all day long, and if a linebacker blitzes then slants/flats are open as well. All a WR or RB has to do is get outside of the DL, and beat one linebacker (or none if a LB blitz is on ) until he gets into the secondary.
These plays will go for substantial yardage.

An opponent can get get big yardage all day long and the key will be red zone defense; as we have experienced against us on more than a few occasions in the last 2 years.
Of course, the lack of tackling in the secondary will be problematic whether you are in a tight man or a deep zone, and that is our key.

I don't care if a team runs up 600 yds on our D as long as they don't score.

04-cheers


After re-watching the game, the biggest weakness from our defense is the linebackers in coverage not getting enough depth. The safeties typically manned their 2 deep zones, but the curl/hitch routes were wide open as our linebackers were too close to the LOS leaving a huge gap between the LB and S. This is where we saw some of those deep in or crossing routes that were successful. Im not sure the reasoning for the lack of depth from our LBs, were they too concerned with the running ability of the QB?

People seemed to be too harsh on Paulhill and not harsh enough on our group of LBs.

On another note, though we did get some pressure at times, we have to figure out how to get more pressure from our base 4-3/4-2-5 defense. Everette looks every part of a pass rusher, but he's going to have to get after the QB. Poncho did very well getting pressure, but most of our pressure came on blitzes from the LBs.

Tho, on a positive note, our run defense was outstanding.
09-02-2014 09:48 AM
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ODUR8R Offline
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Post: #28
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
Poncho is going to be going against Rob Crisp (LT NC State) who did not give an inch of ground all game to Georgia Southern. He was excellent, Wilder acknowledges this is a concern on Saturday because a comfortable Jacoby Brissett is a problematic Jacoby Brissett.
09-02-2014 09:58 AM
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ODUalum78 Online
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Post: #29
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 09:48 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 09:36 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 09:10 AM)Les Geaux Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:29 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(09-01-2014 08:28 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  My seats don't allow me to see schemes so much and I haven't yet seen a video, but what I am hoping is that many of those HU passing yards were screens or slants and flats against a deep zone. Hence my comment about proper pass defense schemes.

That would be accurate. A screen and the fake end around were te only big palys i can remember giving up.

1st Quarter-
3rd and 15 at HAMP 46 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 21 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down

2nd Quarter-
3rd and 2 at ODU 28 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Twarn Mixson for 27 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

3rd Quarter-
1st and 10 at HAMP 47 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 23 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at ODU 30 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST down

1st and 10 at HAMP 15 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rayshad Riddick for 19 yds to the Hampt 34 for a 1ST down

4th Quarter-
2nd and 6 at HAMP 25 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Jorrian Washington for 75 yds for a TD, (Anthony Prevost KICK)

3rd and 9 at ODU 29 Jaylian Williamson pass complete to Rashawn Proctor for 28 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST down

Let's not act like the defense was on point beyond one or two plays, come on now. Those were just plays of 20+ yards (one being 19).

This stuff about it being a slant/screen/flat pass is pointless.

Not pointless at all, because it goes to the point about a deep zone scheme.

In our 4-2-5 we really only have 2 linebackers. If we are playing the 5 in a deep zone, then screens are open all day long, and if a linebacker blitzes then slants/flats are open as well. All a WR or RB has to do is get outside of the DL, and beat one linebacker (or none if a LB blitz is on ) until he gets into the secondary.
These plays will go for substantial yardage.

An opponent can get get big yardage all day long and the key will be red zone defense; as we have experienced against us on more than a few occasions in the last 2 years.
Of course, the lack of tackling in the secondary will be problematic whether you are in a tight man or a deep zone, and that is our key.

I don't care if a team runs up 600 yds on our D as long as they don't score.

04-cheers


After re-watching the game, the biggest weakness from our defense is the linebackers in coverage not getting enough depth. The safeties typically manned their 2 deep zones, but the curl/hitch routes were wide open as our linebackers were too close to the LOS leaving a huge gap between the LB and S. This is where we saw some of those deep in or crossing routes that were successful. Im not sure the reasoning for the lack of depth from our LBs, were they too concerned with the running ability of the QB?

People seemed to be too harsh on Paulhill and not harsh enough on our group of LBs.

On another note, though we did get some pressure at times, we have to figure out how to get more pressure from our base 4-3/4-2-5 defense. Everette looks every part of a pass rusher, but he's going to have to get after the QB. Poncho did very well getting pressure, but most of our pressure came on blitzes from the LBs.

Tho, on a positive note, our run defense was outstanding.

Agreed.

I thought our pass defense was the best I have ever seen - as far as individual coverage, and the DBs timing passes and breaking them up.

It appears to me that our scheme underneath was an exercise in having LBs cover running lanes and maintain gap coverage.
This is great.
Now, this will allow for short stuff and screens, and as such the pass stats will not look as good as they might otherwise - when teams were rushing us out of the stadium.
This also has the benefit of helping to contain running QBs, that have hurt us badly in the past.

Right after the game, I was thinking "what was that???" as per our zone scheme.
Now I am thinking "great D! If we can improve the pressure on the QB and tackle better in the secondary we may really have something here."
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2014 10:10 AM by ODUalum78.)
09-02-2014 10:08 AM
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MonarchManiac Online
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Post: #30
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
Yeah - to me it was all on the LB play Saturday. They were the weak link in the defensive scheme when it comes to pass play. Not dropping into passing lanes especially on some key third down plays.

If we can work that out, things will improve.
09-02-2014 10:21 AM
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Post: #31
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
NC State by 4+ TDs.

I'd love to eat crow, but I'm not gonna assume any sort of improvement, especially after that sh*tshow on Saturday.
09-02-2014 10:24 AM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
N.C. State 59, ODU 31

No confidence in the defense. Can't decide if Wolfpack pull away or if they take a big lead and let in a couple of garbage TDs, but this feels the way we probably should have felt about Maryland last season.
09-02-2014 10:27 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #33
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
My biggest fear from NC State is they run a lot of mis direction and trick plays and our defense always seems to lack discipline. Probably due in part to our youth, but it's still a big concern.

I think the offense will move the ball pretty well and I'm not all that impressed with their OL. (which is thin as well)
09-02-2014 11:53 AM
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Les Geaux Offline
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Post: #34
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 09:36 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If we are playing the 5 in a deep zone, then screens are open all day long, and if a linebacker blitzes then slants/flats are open as well.

ODU plays the Cover 3 Zone a high percentage of the time out of the 4-2-5 package. They don't run a "Cover 5 deep zone." That makes zero sense and any coach at any level should be fired for even thinking about that. A "Cover 5" defense would have 5 DB's covering the back end leaving 2 LB's to cover the whole middle of the field against as many as 5 WR's. They only time you would use 5 DB's deep would be a Hail Mary situation for one play. You would never run it as a base package.

In the Cover 3, the two corners and the free safety all have deep third coverage responsibilities. The strong-side and weak-side safeties both are responsible for the flats. The two backers are rovers for underneath coverage. That is how it works.

Cover 3 is not a defense that allows openings all day long underneath for short passes. Nor do they drop 5 back in deep coverage. It is designed to keep the play in front of the DB's so they can react and move forward instead of having to worry about backside shifting or pursuing 20 yards down the field. Each of the 7 zones on the field are covered and one guy is responsible for a receiver in each zone. It's that simple.

The reason why ODU didn't execute well in it is because they are not a very fundamentally sound defense. They aren't true to their assignments and the strong-side/weak-side safeties are the main problem with a good amount of blame to the LB's as well. The slot receiver for Hampton (#11 Riddick) ate up the SS/WS/LB's on a consistent basis. He lit the LB's up with dig routes and abused the SS/WS safeties up with a couple of out routes where there wasn't a defender 5 yards from him. It all comes down to assignments.
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2014 12:25 PM by Les Geaux.)
09-02-2014 12:19 PM
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The Flagship Offline
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Post: #35
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
Oceanography 24
Agriculture 42
09-02-2014 12:21 PM
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GSUsTALON Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 12:21 PM)The Flagship Wrote:  Oceanography 24
Agriculture 42

Now I may e overestimating ODU because of the two HIGH scoring games we had against each other & am looking at ODU's success in the past as a powerful FCS team.[/size][/u] GSU has a new head coach, staff and offensive system & we still pummeled them for 3 quarters & finally lost by 1 point. Your QB is far superior to their starting QB and if you watched the GSU/NCS game you would see that for yourself.[u][size=large] GSUs defensive line was gassed in the 4th because of a lack of rotation.

Because of what you have said about ODUs defense it may become an offensive shoot out & if so I still think it favors ODU.
09-02-2014 01:59 PM
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RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 01:59 PM)GSUsTALON Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 12:21 PM)The Flagship Wrote:  Oceanography 24
Agriculture 42

Now I may e overestimating ODU because of the two HIGH scoring games we had against each other & am looking at ODU's success in the past as a powerful FCS team.[/size][/u] GSU has a new head coach, staff and offensive system & we still pummeled them for 3 quarters & finally lost by 1 point. Your QB is far superior to their starting QB and if you watched the GSU/NCS game you would see that for yourself.[u][size=large] GSUs defensive line was gassed in the 4th because of a lack of rotation.

Because of what you have said about ODUs defense it may become an offensive shoot out & if so I still think it favors ODU.

UPDATE FROM PACKPRIDE BOARD to TALON

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(This post was last modified: 09-02-2014 02:19 PM by GSUsTALON.)
09-02-2014 02:18 PM
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Post: #38
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
LoL Talon...some thin skins over there?

I can't see an ODU win until the defense proves it can step up...that D last week looked like the same one we've seen for a few years now...I do think the offense was holding back a bit...

Wolves 52, Lions 31
09-02-2014 02:57 PM
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Post: #39
RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 02:18 PM)GSUsTALON Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 01:59 PM)GSUsTALON Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 12:21 PM)The Flagship Wrote:  Oceanography 24
Agriculture 42

Now I may e overestimating ODU because of the two HIGH scoring games we had against each other & am looking at ODU's success in the past as a powerful FCS team.[/size][/u] GSU has a new head coach, staff and offensive system & we still pummeled them for 3 quarters & finally lost by 1 point. Your QB is far superior to their starting QB and if you watched the GSU/NCS game you would see that for yourself.[u][size=large] GSUs defensive line was gassed in the 4th because of a lack of rotation.

Because of what you have said about ODUs defense it may become an offensive shoot out & if so I still think it favors ODU.

UPDATE FROM PACKPRIDE BOARD to TALON

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09-02-2014 03:00 PM
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Old Dominion Offline
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RE: ODU @ NCST Prediction Thread.
(09-02-2014 12:19 PM)Les Geaux Wrote:  
(09-02-2014 09:36 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  If we are playing the 5 in a deep zone, then screens are open all day long, and if a linebacker blitzes then slants/flats are open as well.

ODU plays the Cover 3 Zone a high percentage of the time out of the 4-2-5 package. They don't run a "Cover 5 deep zone." That makes zero sense and any coach at any level should be fired for even thinking about that. A "Cover 5" defense would have 5 DB's covering the back end leaving 2 LB's to cover the whole middle of the field against as many as 5 WR's. They only time you would use 5 DB's deep would be a Hail Mary situation for one play. You would never run it as a base package.

In the Cover 3, the two corners and the free safety all have deep third coverage responsibilities. The strong-side and weak-side safeties both are responsible for the flats. The two backers are rovers for underneath coverage. That is how it works.

Cover 3 is not a defense that allows openings all day long underneath for short passes. Nor do they drop 5 back in deep coverage. It is designed to keep the play in front of the DB's so they can react and move forward instead of having to worry about backside shifting or pursuing 20 yards down the field. Each of the 7 zones on the field are covered and one guy is responsible for a receiver in each zone. It's that simple.

The reason why ODU didn't execute well in it is because they are not a very fundamentally sound defense. They aren't true to their assignments and the strong-side/weak-side safeties are the main problem with a good amount of blame to the LB's as well. The slot receiver for Hampton (#11 Riddick) ate up the SS/WS/LB's on a consistent basis. He lit the LB's up with dig routes and abused the SS/WS safeties up with a couple of out routes where there wasn't a defender 5 yards from him. It all comes down to assignments.

I'm no football expert so I'm not questioning you, I'm looking for some kind of explanation as to why this statement seems to be true now for 5 years. Numerous coaches, numerous different players, same analysis. What, in your opinion, is the problem?
09-02-2014 03:21 PM
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