Would there be any push to just contract them in?

Maybe from the AAC, but the push would go nowhere. And if the MWC were to land the spot repeatedly my answer would be the same. The Access Bowl slot exists so all ten FBS conferences that are signatories of the CFP agreement have an avenue to participate in the CFP bowls, even if the opportunity is only theoretical. I don't see that changing.

It wouldn't take that long, IMO. If after 3 more years the AAC wins 3 access bowls, they'll be considered a quasi contract conference, and it would take an absolute monster year by any of the other "g5" conferences to get an access slot. You may also see the AAC wiggle out a niche like the Big East has. No specific tie ins, but some gaurantees of going somewhere. At least that is the hope. I really don't think it would take up to 10 years.

(07-11-2014 04:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Maybe from the AAC, but the push would go nowhere. And if the MWC were to land the spot repeatedly my answer would be the same. The Access Bowl slot exists so all ten FBS conferences that are signatories of the CFP agreement have an avenue to participate in the CFP bowls, even if the opportunity is only theoretical. I don't see that changing.

I don't agree. If the AAC (or let's say MWC for that matter) wins 6 straight access bowls, EVERYONE in their right mind would consider them a power conf (provided they could hang on to their teams).

Now what would probably happen before that is the top 2-3 programs would be skimmed off the top, making the point moot.

(07-11-2014 04:35 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Now what would probably happen before that is the top 2-3 programs would be skimmed off the top, making the point moot.

Exactly. History has not elevated conferences. It has elevated the best programs in those conferences. If UCF, Cincinnati and Houston start winning Access Bowls, it does not make Tulsa, Memphis and Tulane P5.

(07-11-2014 04:42 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 04:35 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Now what would probably happen before that is the top 2-3 programs would be skimmed off the top, making the point moot.

Exactly. History has not elevated conferences. It has elevated the best programs in those conferences. If UCF, Cincinnati and Houston start winning Access Bowls, it does not make Tulsa, Memphis and Tulane P5.

True but you could say the same thing about the bottom third of every so called "p5" conference, who have never won anything and are along for the ride.

ESPiN will praise the ACC for being the "superior" conference. Standard Operating Procedure.


Note: Yes, I'm aware you said AAC. "Never let the facts get in the way of brilliantly awesome spin." - signed ESPiN

Only if they also win the access bowl game on a regular basis. Merely getting the slot, then getting blown out in the bowl won't cut it.

I could see the AAC getting back to where the Big East was. They'll never be offered a spot in any of the 3 contract bowls but I could see a guarantee for their champ to appear in the Cotton/Peach/Fiesta on a rotating basis like the old BE had.

The circumstances that would let the AAC win it that many times would be extremely odd to see. That said, no. If the AAC had that many years odds are it's because of 1-2 very strong programs. Top to bottom the conference isn't going to be seen as strong as the P5. Only at the point that the conference commands the media attention and top to bottom strength of the power conferences will it get a contract and that's a very uphill battle.

Note: For pratical purposes, we are stuck with 3 contract bowls. If one of the bowls wants to sign a contract with the AAC (Orange only real possibility), that's the only way you get another team in.

I mean maybe IF...but let's not forget, if my sister had balls she'd be my brother and if a frog had wings....

I doubt it. Only way it happens is it the P5 conferences seem interested in giving up their bids to let the AAC have an auto bid.

Something tells me that's not going to happen. Besides, I don't see the AAC running away with anything. More parity.

(07-11-2014 05:55 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  The circumstances that would let the AAC win it that many times would be extremely odd to see. That said, no. If the AAC had that many years odds are it's because of 1-2 very strong programs. Top to bottom the conference isn't going to be seen as strong as the P5. Only at the point that the conference commands the media attention and top to bottom strength of the power conferences will it get a contract and that's a very uphill battle.

Note: For pratical purposes, we are stuck with 3 contract bowls. If one of the bowls wants to sign a contract with the AAC (Orange only real possibility), that's the only way you get another team in.

Who mandated that there will forever only be 3 contract bowl. Where is it written that there will always be 3 contact bowls, and even if it was, it could be changed in theory. I never said it was likely.

(07-11-2014 10:28 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I doubt it. Only way it happens is it the P5 conferences seem interested in giving up their bids to let the AAC have an auto bid.

Something tells me that's not going to happen. Besides, I don't see the AAC running away with anything. More parity.

Who says bids would have to be given up. If under this scenario, AAC wins next 6 contract bowls, other conferences wouldn't be giving up anything, AAC would just be continuing what they already have.

(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?

In a word, "No", as winning BCS-level bowls is obviously not a factor in whether a conference is contracted in or not.

E.g., between 2005-2011, the Big East won more BCS bowls than did the ACC, but the Big East was dumped from AQ while the ACC was included.

Inclusion in the Power zone is all about market value, has nothing to do with winning.

(07-11-2014 04:42 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 04:35 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Now what would probably happen before that is the top 2-3 programs would be skimmed off the top, making the point moot.

Exactly. History has not elevated conferences. It has elevated the best programs in those conferences. If UCF, Cincinnati and Houston start winning Access Bowls, it does not make Tulsa, Memphis and Tulane P5.

It will just help the Big 12 identify which programs it will add when the rest of the P5 force it to expand.

(07-11-2014 11:10 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 10:28 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I doubt it. Only way it happens is it the P5 conferences seem interested in giving up their bids to let the AAC have an auto bid.

Something tells me that's not going to happen. Besides, I don't see the AAC running away with anything. More parity.

Who says bids would have to be given up. If under this scenario, AAC wins next 6 contract bowls, other conferences wouldn't be giving up anything, AAC would just be continuing what they already have.

The only way the P5 would not have to give up a slot is if (a) it converted the designated G5 Access slot into a guaranteed AAC slot, or (b) added another Access bowl (like say elevated the Cap One to Access level).

But neither will ever happen, because (a) the first option would cut off the remaining G4 from a designated path to the Access bowls, something which is regarded as sacrosanct since the congressional ruckus and subsequent modification of the BCS back in 2004; while (b) would involve some network being willing to boost the payout of a 7th bowl to at least $55 million, and that idea was already rejected as infeasible because of a lack of network interest - remember Aresco's "7th Access Bowl" idea during the CFP negotiations?

So the only way the AAC could get an automatic slot is within the existing structure, where the G4 retain the existing Access slot and the system has 6 bowls, and since the AAC slot has to come from somewhere, and it must come from the other existing slots, all of which are currently configured to accommodate P5 conference agreements. It's the availability of all of those slots that ensure all the convoluted scenarios that ensure that at least one school from every P5 conference gets in an Access bowl every year regardless of whether their champ makes the playoffs or not. Stuff like "If the Rose Bowl is not a semi-final bowl and the B1G champ does not make the playoffs, then the B1G champ will play in the Rose Bowl, but if the Rose Bowl is a semi-final bowl, then the B1G champ will play in another Access Bowl, unless their champ is also higher ranked than Notre Dame and the top available SEC team, in which case it will play in the Orange Bowl, unless Aquarius is rising in the East and the moon is over Tahiti in which case they play in the Sugar bowl", and all that crap. All of that depends on all those other existing slots being available.

And let's face it: The idea that the P5 would completely re-jigger the Access bowl edifice, and sacrifice a slot that pays them $40 million in an Access bowl, just because the AAC keeps winning the G5 slot, simply beggars all belief.

(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?

No - why add them in when they are there on the P5 terms anyway taking a spot that is there already. The American is not tied to a major bowl like the P5 conferences and would continue to be moved to the least desirable spot on the status quo conditions. The P5 would not have to share any more money than they currently do and would not have to free up another at large spot for the remaining G5 / G4 conferences to avoid further litigation.

(07-12-2014 07:13 AM)panite Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?

No - why add them in when they are there on the P5 terms anyway taking a spot that is there already. The American is not tied to a major bowl like the P5 conferences and would continue to be moved to the least desirable spot on the status quo conditions. The P5 would not have to share any more money than they currently do and would not have to free up another at large spot for the remaining G5 / G4 conferences to avoid further litigation.

Not only that: If the AAC is given an automatic slot, then that would effectively make the AAC the sixth Power conference. The structure would change from P5/G5 to P6/G4. And one of the characteristics of the current system is the division of playoff money, which currently will pay each P5 about $50 million per year, whereas each G5 conference is getting about $18 million per year.

It would be conceptually very difficult, probably impossible, to elevate the AAC to a guaranteed Access slot without also making them co-partners in the P5 playoff revenue distribution, which of course would mean the P5 would have to cough up $32 million a year to the AAC to make that happen.

You might as well ask the SEC to not only invite the AAC over for a free dinner, but have sex with their wife afterwards for dessert.

(07-12-2014 07:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 11:10 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 10:28 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  I doubt it. Only way it happens is it the P5 conferences seem interested in giving up their bids to let the AAC have an auto bid.

Something tells me that's not going to happen. Besides, I don't see the AAC running away with anything. More parity.

Who says bids would have to be given up. If under this scenario, AAC wins next 6 contract bowls, other conferences wouldn't be giving up anything, AAC would just be continuing what they already have.

The only way the P5 would not have to give up a slot is if (a) it converted the designated G5 Access slot into a guaranteed AAC slot, or (b) added another Access bowl (like say elevated the Cap One to Access level).

But neither will ever happen, because (a) the first option would cut off the remaining G4 from a designated path to the Access bowls, something which is regarded as sacrosanct since the congressional ruckus and subsequent modification of the BCS back in 2004; while (b) would involve some network being willing to boost the payout of a 7th bowl to at least $55 million, and that idea was already rejected as infeasible because of a lack of network interest - remember Aresco's "7th Access Bowl" idea during the CFP negotiations?

So the only way the AAC could get an automatic slot is within the existing structure, where the G4 retain the existing Access slot and the system has 6 bowls, and since the AAC slot has to come from somewhere, and it must come from the other existing slots, all of which are currently configured to accommodate P5 conference agreements. It's the availability of all of those slots that ensure all the convoluted scenarios that ensure that at least one school from every P5 conference gets in an Access bowl every year regardless of whether their champ makes the playoffs or not. Stuff like "If the Rose Bowl is not a semi-final bowl and the B1G champ does not make the playoffs, then the B1G champ will play in the Rose Bowl, but if the Rose Bowl is a semi-final bowl, then the B1G champ will play in another Access Bowl, unless their champ is also higher ranked than Notre Dame and the top available SEC team, in which case it will play in the Orange Bowl, unless Aquarius is rising in the East and the moon is over Tahiti in which case they play in the Sugar bowl", and all that crap. All of that depends on all those other existing slots being available.

And let's face it: The idea that the P5 would completely re-jigger the Access bowl edifice, and sacrifice a slot that pays them $40 million in an Access bowl, just because the AAC keeps winning the G5 slot, simply beggars all belief.

If AAC wins it the next 6 years, then the G4 wouldn't be giving up anything. You can't give up something you don't or have ever had.

Note: Again, I never said this is likely.