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If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #41
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-14-2014 02:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I really don't get this obsession with the Access Bowl slot.

The primary difference between P5 and G5 is NOT bowl access. It's TV revenue. If the P5 decided tomorrow that the AAC gets an automatic bid to an access bowl, the TV revenue gap will still be gigantic (even if we did get the $20 million the SEC/Big 12 are getting for the Sugar Bowl).

I'm really glad somebody finally said this because those are my sentiments exactly. The contract bowls are a symptom of a larger issue, not the issue itself.

Looking at this issue in a contract bowl versus access bowl perspective is too narrow and ignores too much of the landscape. This is all moot anyway because this playoff will not be at four teams for very long. The numbers simply do not work. This will soon be an eight team playoff and when it does expand, that is when G5 leagues like the American will have their opportunity to grasp the brass ring. The G5 leagues believe this as well which is why they agreed to sign onto this pact in the first place.
07-14-2014 10:04 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #42
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
A G5 conference winning access bowl games has only a tangential relationship to whether it will ever be elevated.

What matters to bowls are *direct* ticket sales (meaning tickets bought *directly* from the bowl and NOT via third party sources like StubHub) and TV ratings desirability (in that order). Merit only matters to the extent that it motivates a fan base to buy tickets (or depresses a fan base to not buy tickets) in a particular season.

It's also not up to the P5 to decide whether or not a G5 conference gets a "contract bowl" slot or not. If the Fiesta, Cotton or Peach want to decide to pay $30 million or $40 million per year to lock in the champ from a G5 conference, they're perfectly free to do so. That's the entire premise of there now being "contract" bowls (which are solely determined by free market desirability) as opposed to AQ/non-AQ under the BCS (which had a merit-based component on paper, albeit heavily stacked in favor of the power leagues). So, do the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach want to commit a ton of money to a G5 conference, or would they rather pay less and take the 2nd or 3rd place SEC and Big Ten schools instead? The entire history of how at-large BCS bids were picked along with the payouts for the second tier bowls should tell you the answer to that.
07-15-2014 08:51 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #43
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-14-2014 02:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I really don't get this obsession with the Access Bowl slot.

The primary difference between P5 and G5 is NOT bowl access. It's TV revenue. If the P5 decided tomorrow that the AAC gets an automatic bid to an access bowl, the TV revenue gap will still be gigantic (even if we did get the $20 million the SEC/Big 12 are getting for the Sugar Bowl).

First, the SEC and Big 12 get $40m each for the Sugar not $20m. For the B12 that is $4m per school, not chump change. Add in the $7m per school gap in CFP money between G5 and P5 and the overall post-season gap is $11m. That is not as much as the $20m gap in media but it is enough to obsess over.

Second, the issues are likely related: if a G5 was given an auto Access bid this would raise its prestige and likely mean more media money.

So i do think the issue is worth dwelling on.
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2014 10:36 AM by quo vadis.)
07-15-2014 08:54 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #44
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 08:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  So, do the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach want to commit a ton of money to a G5 conference, or would they rather pay less and take the 2nd or 3rd place SEC and Big Ten schools instead? The entire history of how at-large BCS bids were picked along with the payouts for the second tier bowls should tell you the answer to that.

True, but then again there clearly are limits to the appeal of the 2nd or 3rd place SEC teams. For example, the Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl were willing to jettison their SEC tie-ins in order to be included in the playoffs rotation, even though in two out of three years they will not be hosting playoffs, but rather schools that (a) can come from any conference, including the G5, and (b) while highly ranked, will not be in the top four.

The Cotton in particular, since it was getting the #3 SEC team and usually a very good SEC team from the powerful SEC West, had been blessed with very appealing matchups the past several years (e.g., Oklahoma vs Texas A/M w/Manzel two years ago) and had been drawing 80k attendance since moving to Jerry World, yet gave that up to possibly host UCF vs UCLA.
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2014 10:41 AM by quo vadis.)
07-15-2014 10:35 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #45
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 08:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  So, do the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach want to commit a ton of money to a G5 conference, or would they rather pay less and take the 2nd or 3rd place SEC and Big Ten schools instead? The entire history of how at-large BCS bids were picked along with the payouts for the second tier bowls should tell you the answer to that.

True, but then again there clearly are limits to the appeal of the 2nd or 3rd place SEC teams. For example, the Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl were willing to jettison their SEC tie-ins in order to be included in the playoffs rotation, even though in two out of three years they will not be hosting playoffs, but rather schools that (a) can come from any conference, including the G5, and (b) while highly ranked, will not be in the top four.

The Cotton in particular, since it was getting the #3 SEC team and usually a very good SEC team from the powerful SEC West, had been blessed with very appealing matchups the past several years (e.g., Oklahoma vs Texas A/M w/Manzel two years ago) and had been drawing 80k attendance since moving to Jerry World, yet gave that up to possibly host UCF vs UCLA.

Let's not kid ourselves: the Cotton doesn't prefer UCF vs. UCLA compared to its old Big 12/SEC tie-ins. However, the Cotton *does* prefer getting a top 4 playoff game every 3 years compared to its tie-ins. The risk of getting a UCF vs. UCLA game is the price of doing business there.
07-15-2014 11:57 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #46
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 08:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  So, do the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach want to commit a ton of money to a G5 conference, or would they rather pay less and take the 2nd or 3rd place SEC and Big Ten schools instead? The entire history of how at-large BCS bids were picked along with the payouts for the second tier bowls should tell you the answer to that.

True, but then again there clearly are limits to the appeal of the 2nd or 3rd place SEC teams. For example, the Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl were willing to jettison their SEC tie-ins in order to be included in the playoffs rotation, even though in two out of three years they will not be hosting playoffs, but rather schools that (a) can come from any conference, including the G5, and (b) while highly ranked, will not be in the top four.

The Cotton in particular, since it was getting the #3 SEC team and usually a very good SEC team from the powerful SEC West, had been blessed with very appealing matchups the past several years (e.g., Oklahoma vs Texas A/M w/Manzel two years ago) and had been drawing 80k attendance since moving to Jerry World, yet gave that up to possibly host UCF vs UCLA.

Let's not kid ourselves: the Cotton doesn't prefer UCF vs. UCLA compared to its old Big 12/SEC tie-ins. However, the Cotton *does* prefer getting a top 4 playoff game every 3 years compared to its tie-ins. The risk of getting a UCF vs. UCLA game is the price of doing business there.

My point was that if the desire for a guaranteed high-profile SEC team was so overwhelmingly strong, the Cotton would not have been willing to pay that price. But they are.
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2014 01:19 PM by quo vadis.)
07-15-2014 01:19 PM
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Post: #47
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 01:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  My point was that if the desire for a guaranteed high-profile SEC team was so overwhelmingly strong, the Cotton would not have been willing to pay that price. But they are.

That is not entirely fair though. Because what you have to realize is that they were no longer being guaranteed that #3 SEC team. Between playoffs and access slots, they could legitimately be looking at the number 4 or 5 SEC team some years. Plus instead of their being only 4 BCS bowls , then later 5, which left the Cotton Bowl and Captiol One Bowl fighting for the 5/6 best bowl perception wise, they now fall down past the 6 Access/Playoff bowls plus the championship game, meaning they are now fighting to be the 8th most important game. So combine those to issues, with the opportunity to be a part of the playoffs, and the issues of even further loss of prestige if their other like bowls (Capitol One and Peach ) are a part of the playoffs and they are not, and you see the difference as to why they had to try to get involved. It's not as simple as you making it out to be.
07-15-2014 01:25 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #48
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 01:25 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 01:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  My point was that if the desire for a guaranteed high-profile SEC team was so overwhelmingly strong, the Cotton would not have been willing to pay that price. But they are.

That is not entirely fair though. Because what you have to realize is that they were no longer being guaranteed that #3 SEC team. Between playoffs and access slots, they could legitimately be looking at the number 4 or 5 SEC team some years. Plus instead of their being only 4 BCS bowls , then later 5, which left the Cotton Bowl and Captiol One Bowl fighting for the 5/6 best bowl perception wise, they now fall down past the 6 Access/Playoff bowls plus the championship game, meaning they are now fighting to be the 8th most important game. So combine those to issues, with the opportunity to be a part of the playoffs, and the issues of even further loss of prestige if their other like bowls (Capitol One and Peach ) are a part of the playoffs and they are not, and you see the difference as to why they had to try to get involved. It's not as simple as you making it out to be.

Good points. In order for my comparison to be entirely fair, the Cotton would have had to have the option to keep things as they were, getting the #2 Big 12 vs the #3 SEC, and with the new playoff format that wasn't the case. So it really was a comparison between being in the playoffs rotation and probably hosting SEC #6 or somesuch.

FWIW, the Cap One is not part of the playoffs, and while it will still have the top SEC team not selected for the Playoffs/Access Bowls, it could find itself getting the #4 SEC team rather than #2 or #3 as it did under the BCS.
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2014 01:51 PM by quo vadis.)
07-15-2014 01:50 PM
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Post: #49
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?

No
07-15-2014 02:46 PM
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Post: #50
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 08:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  .

Let's not kid ourselves: the Cotton doesn't prefer UCF vs. UCLA compared to its old Big 12/SEC tie-ins. However, the Cotton *does* prefer getting a top 4 playoff game every 3 years compared to its tie-ins. The risk of getting a UCF vs. UCLA game is the price of doing business there.

We have a cigar winner here.
07-15-2014 03:22 PM
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Post: #51
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  FWIW, the Cap One is not part of the playoffs, and while it will still have the top SEC team not selected for the Playoffs/Access Bowls, it could find itself getting the #4 SEC team rather than #2 or #3 as it did under the BCS.


Right, but the Capitol One and Peach are the closest "peer" bowls to the Cotton.
07-15-2014 04:09 PM
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Post: #52
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-14-2014 10:04 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  
(07-14-2014 02:15 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I really don't get this obsession with the Access Bowl slot.

The primary difference between P5 and G5 is NOT bowl access. It's TV revenue. If the P5 decided tomorrow that the AAC gets an automatic bid to an access bowl, the TV revenue gap will still be gigantic (even if we did get the $20 million the SEC/Big 12 are getting for the Sugar Bowl).

I'm really glad somebody finally said this because those are my sentiments exactly. The contract bowls are a symptom of a larger issue, not the issue itself.

Looking at this issue in a contract bowl versus access bowl perspective is too narrow and ignores too much of the landscape. This is all moot anyway because this playoff will not be at four teams for very long. The numbers simply do not work. This will soon be an eight team playoff and when it does expand, that is when G5 leagues like the American will have their opportunity to grasp the brass ring. The G5 leagues believe this as well which is why they agreed to sign onto this pact in the first place.


Is it your guess that the G5 would be guaranteed a spot in an 8 team playoff? Or just that they would have a better chance of breaking through (Boise has been ranked high enough in the recent past, as has Cincy)?

As far as the access bowl slot, that, IMO is akin to saying there is one extra seat at the grownups' table for Thanksgiving dinner, and one kid gets to sit in it. He probably would have been happier sitting at the kids' table with his peers instead of being bored to death by grownup conversation.
07-16-2014 08:50 AM
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Post: #53
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-15-2014 01:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 11:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 10:35 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-15-2014 08:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  So, do the Fiesta, Cotton and Peach want to commit a ton of money to a G5 conference, or would they rather pay less and take the 2nd or 3rd place SEC and Big Ten schools instead? The entire history of how at-large BCS bids were picked along with the payouts for the second tier bowls should tell you the answer to that.

True, but then again there clearly are limits to the appeal of the 2nd or 3rd place SEC teams. For example, the Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl were willing to jettison their SEC tie-ins in order to be included in the playoffs rotation, even though in two out of three years they will not be hosting playoffs, but rather schools that (a) can come from any conference, including the G5, and (b) while highly ranked, will not be in the top four.

The Cotton in particular, since it was getting the #3 SEC team and usually a very good SEC team from the powerful SEC West, had been blessed with very appealing matchups the past several years (e.g., Oklahoma vs Texas A/M w/Manzel two years ago) and had been drawing 80k attendance since moving to Jerry World, yet gave that up to possibly host UCF vs UCLA.

Let's not kid ourselves: the Cotton doesn't prefer UCF vs. UCLA compared to its old Big 12/SEC tie-ins. However, the Cotton *does* prefer getting a top 4 playoff game every 3 years compared to its tie-ins. The risk of getting a UCF vs. UCLA game is the price of doing business there.

My point was that if the desire for a guaranteed high-profile SEC team was so overwhelmingly strong, the Cotton would not have been willing to pay that price. But they are.

The Cotton will make out very well under the new arrangement. In addition to getting a semifinal every three years, during the year that the Rose and Sugar are the semis, they are very likely to land the best available (non playoff) team from the Big 12. During the Orange-Fiesta playoff year, they are likely to get the Big 10 or SEC school that would be committed to the Orange in other years.
07-16-2014 11:14 AM
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Bull Offline
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Post: #54
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
Even if it could, the powers that be in the smoke filled rooms, will make sure the AAC does not win the slot 6-10 years in a row.
07-16-2014 12:52 PM
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Post: #55
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-12-2014 06:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?

In a word, "No", as winning BCS-level bowls is obviously not a factor in whether a conference is contracted in or not.

E.g., between 2005-2011, the Big East won more BCS bowls than did the ACC, but the Big East was dumped from AQ while the ACC was included.

Inclusion in the Power zone is all about LEGACY, has nothing to do with winning.

Fixed. As if Duke, Wake Forest, Washington State, Oregon State, Baylor until recently, Northwestern and Vandy have market appeal compared to their peers.
07-18-2014 11:58 AM
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Post: #56
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2014 12:54 PM by Tallgrass.)
07-18-2014 12:49 PM
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Post: #57
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-16-2014 12:52 PM)Bull Wrote:  Even if it could, the powers that be in the smoke filled rooms, will make sure the AAC does not win the slot 6-10 years in a row.

Certainly the MAC,Sun Belt and cUSA are not going.
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2014 04:09 PM by Rich52c.)
07-18-2014 01:33 PM
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Post: #58
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
Whatever G5 teams get selected, I have no doubt that the people in charge will find some way to screw them over. Whether it's ridiculous ticket requirements, putting them up against a happy-to-be-there team instead of a traditional power, giving them the worst TV timeslot available, or sending them across the country when a much closer site is available. Inevitably, when they fail to sell their ridiculously large allotment of overpriced tickets at a stadium 2500 miles away from campus or the ratings are bad because the game is at 10am against Baylor instead of primetime against Oklahoma, it'll be used as a reason to exclude them in the future.
07-18-2014 01:56 PM
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Post: #59
RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-18-2014 01:56 PM)prp Wrote:  Whatever G5 teams get selected, I have no doubt that the people in charge will find some way to screw them over. Whether it's ridiculous ticket requirements, putting them up against a happy-to-be-there team instead of a traditional power, giving them the worst TV timeslot available, or sending them across the country when a much closer site is available. Inevitably, when they fail to sell their ridiculously large allotment of overpriced tickets at a stadium 2500 miles away from campus or the ratings are bad because the game is at 10am against Baylor instead of primetime against Oklahoma, it'll be used as a reason to exclude them in the future.

Outside the AAC and the MWC there are no likely schools.
07-18-2014 04:10 PM
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RE: If the AAC wins the Access Bowl slot for 6-10 straight years...
(07-11-2014 04:23 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  Would there be any push to just contract them in?
Yes, there will be a push. The AAC won't stop pushing for a guaranteed Access Bowl spot. If they were to land it 6-10 years in a row, that would then become their talking point. If they do not, something else will be their talking point.

No, it won't succeed, since the only tenable way to do it is to replace the Go5 Access Bowl slot with an AAC Access Bowl slot, and locking out the other four FBS conferences defeats the whole point of conceding the Go5 an automatic Access Bowl spot in the first place. Having the system formally open to all FBS schools is the safer legal and political position to be in ~ political both inside the NCAA and in the halls of Congress.
07-22-2014 12:13 PM
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