(06-18-2014 07:19 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 12:51 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  No, at some point, conference cleansing will occur. All of the P5 conferences will replace their revenue leeches! The only variable is time! After all when replacing the leeches will increase revenues it will happen.

It's too difficult to just kick out a school or two, because of conference by-laws and political blowback. Otherwise it would have already happened because it would be worth a lot of money.

IMO a likely possibility if the big moneymakers decide to get aggressive is threatening to leave in order to force unequal revenue distribution within the conference. If, for example, Alabama effectively provides one-fourth of the SEC's market value, how long are they going to settle for one-fourteenth of the conference revenue?

The ACC, Big XII, Pac-12, and SEC all trace their history back to a group of schools dissatisfied with the conference they were in and creating a new one. You are correct, schools don't get kicked out very often, instead of kicking someone out, the unhappy ones just leave.

(06-18-2014 11:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  The only way it happens is IF those schools get the life raft.

There will be very, very few life rafts if the Big 12 ever comes apart.

There is a stalemate preventing the movement of the more valuable programs, and that will continue until there is some big structural change that makes either gigantic conferences or independence into a more attractive financial model than what the P5 have going now.

If there's only a little money to be gained by upsetting the current apple cart, then it won't happen. But when there is a huge pile of new money to be made, they won't worry so much about hurting the feelings of others.

(06-18-2014 11:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  The only way it happens is IF those schools get the life raft.

There will be very, very few life rafts if the Big 12 ever comes apart.

There is a stalemate preventing the movement of the more valuable programs, and that will continue until there is some big structural change that makes either gigantic conferences or independence into a more attractive financial model than what the P5 have going now.

If there's only a little money to be gained by upsetting the current apple cart, then it won't happen. But when there is a huge pile of new money to be made, they won't worry so much about hurting the feelings of others.

Or if there is a small pile of money because the market is disrupted only the productive will survive and there will be few old time feelings of affinity toward those who aren't helping produce.

Between 1999 and 2008 sales of recorded music dropped 41%. With the rise of all the music services sales of digital music fell last year.

It is entirely plausible that when the 2020's arrive that rights fees for sports could plummet. I don't know that it is LIKELY, but it is plausible.

While it is pure stab in the dark guess, I think ESPN is gearing up for a Pandora/Spotify approach. They are grabbing digital rights to a lot of stuff that they are dumping on ESPN3/WatchESPN that is available quasi-free, wouldn't surprise me in a few years if your ESPN is an app and you get a lot free and then pay for add-ons.

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done....

There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities...

Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

(06-18-2014 11:41 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:22 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  The only way it happens is IF those schools get the life raft.

There will be very, very few life rafts if the Big 12 ever comes apart.

There is a stalemate preventing the movement of the more valuable programs, and that will continue until there is some big structural change that makes either gigantic conferences or independence into a more attractive financial model than what the P5 have going now.

If there's only a little money to be gained by upsetting the current apple cart, then it won't happen. But when there is a huge pile of new money to be made, they won't worry so much about hurting the feelings of others.

Or if there is a small pile of money because the market is disrupted only the productive will survive and there will be few old time feelings of affinity toward those who aren't helping produce.

Between 1999 and 2008 sales of recorded music dropped 41%. With the rise of all the music services sales of digital music fell last year.

It is entirely plausible that when the 2020's arrive that rights fees for sports could plummet. I don't know that it is LIKELY, but it is plausible.

While it is pure stab in the dark guess, I think ESPN is gearing up for a Pandora/Spotify approach. They are grabbing digital rights to a lot of stuff that they are dumping on ESPN3/WatchESPN that is available quasi-free, wouldn't surprise me in a few years if your ESPN is an app and you get a lot free and then pay for add-ons.

That's a possible ESPN model for sure.

Dynamic pricing could really disrupt relationships among college conference mates. If ESPN passes through a fee depending on how much they can make off of a game, and Alabama-LSU costs $2/viewer on ESPN while Vandy-Ole Miss is free, it won't take Alabama and LSU long to push for a much larger share of the pie. The other programs won't necessarily be kicked out, they'll just have to make do with a much smaller percentage of media revenue.

(06-18-2014 06:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Everything should be quiet right up till around 2025 when the Big 12 GOR runs out.

Then something may or may not happen but offers will be made under the table and behind closed doors.

The GoRs and the fact that no one wants to leave the SEC will keep conferences from poaching each other. I agree with 10th Mountain. It'll be 2025 before any P5 movement.

The Big10 would take Texas and OU and the SEC would take FSU and Clemson (and destroy the B12 and ACC) if it would make them more money.

So the answer is "no".

But the B1G would NOT take OSU and TTU who have both politically attached themselves at the hip to their meal tickets.

The PAC would take the OU/OSU/UT/TTU combo, so might the ACC, but the B1G and SEC wod not which makes them non starters.

I do not think any of the current remaining P5 teams will move conferences for quit awhile. I think the real questions are:

1) Will the PAC 12 add two more teams?
2) Will the Big 12 ever get back to 12?
3) Will the P5 continue to allow Independents to play in the Championship game?
4) Will the P5 add a sxith conference?
5) Will BYU and Notre Dame football join a conference?
6) Who gets to move up?
BYU
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Central Florida
East Carolina
South Florida

(06-18-2014 11:47 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done....

There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities...

Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

How did I know you would say to post a link "or else"? Oh that's right, because you are too f'n lazy to ever look for yourself and its easier to just call me a liar than to actually learn to use google.


Yes, I am a prick, so what? Piss off pest.

As far as what my other post "must have meant". I told you what it meant, to continue to try and misrepresent it just shows your agenda of trying to attack me. So you are an idiot and cannot understand such notions, that is ok, really it is but learn to accept that rather than to attack your betters.

I like your short list of who might get to move up. I think the list of who WANTS to move up is much longer and probably includes all of the AAC and at least half of CUSA and MWC.
The devil is in the details and it will be interesting, once the new autonomy P5 rules are written, how many on that long list are still interested.
AAC is already on the record saying they are all in to match the new P5 guidelines, which is a very good tactic if they intend to break back into the P club.(former BCS).
But looking at the trends of selection... I think the P5 has sailed on all but a short list of G5 schools. And we're back to your short list, which wlil likely end up being shorter than the candidates you listed.

(06-19-2014 08:30 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:47 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done....

There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities...

Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

How did I know you would say to post a link "or else"? Oh that's right, because you are too f'n lazy to ever look for yourself and its easier to just call me a liar than to actually learn to use google.


Yes, I am a prick, so what? Piss off pest.

As far as what my other post "must have meant". I told you what it meant, to continue to try and misrepresent it just shows your agenda of trying to attack me. So you are an idiot and cannot understand such notions, that is ok, really it is but learn to accept that rather than to attack your betters.

I actually find the notion of the BigXii having a guaranteed proportional revenue increase with expansion to be entirely plausibe. I also think they'd be fine with letting the misconception of a "locked in" contract persist because it looks better than other causes for the BigXii's hesitancy to expand (i.e. intrinsic inability to form balanced divisions). But still, you're one of the few proponents of a proportional revenue increase with BigXii expansion, so the burden of proof is on you. Being the better of everyone, you should be up to the task of delivering.

(06-19-2014 08:30 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:47 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done....

There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities...

Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

How did I know you would say to post a link "or else"? Oh that's right, because you are too f'n lazy to ever look for yourself and its easier to just call me a liar than to actually learn to use google.


Yes, I am a prick, so what? Piss off pest.

As far as what my other post "must have meant". I told you what it meant, to continue to try and misrepresent it just shows your agenda of trying to attack me. So you are an idiot and cannot understand such notions, that is ok, really it is but learn to accept that rather than to attack your betters.

But you are nobody's better, you with the swollen head!

(06-19-2014 06:45 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(06-19-2014 08:30 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:47 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

How did I know you would say to post a link "or else"? Oh that's right, because you are too f'n lazy to ever look for yourself and its easier to just call me a liar than to actually learn to use google.


Yes, I am a prick, so what? Piss off pest.

As far as what my other post "must have meant". I told you what it meant, to continue to try and misrepresent it just shows your agenda of trying to attack me. So you are an idiot and cannot understand such notions, that is ok, really it is but learn to accept that rather than to attack your betters.

But you are nobody's better, you with the swollen head!

You talking about another with a swollen head? too funny hypocrite.

(06-19-2014 04:00 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-19-2014 08:30 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 11:47 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 07:31 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?

Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
- I don't see any way that your prior post can be read as anything other than a statement that BigXii expansion is a pathway to four major conferences. Your post in its cryptic wording is poorly written and misleading.

No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
- post a link or continue acting like a grandiose prick. Your call

How did I know you would say to post a link "or else"? Oh that's right, because you are too f'n lazy to ever look for yourself and its easier to just call me a liar than to actually learn to use google.


Yes, I am a prick, so what? Piss off pest.

As far as what my other post "must have meant". I told you what it meant, to continue to try and misrepresent it just shows your agenda of trying to attack me. So you are an idiot and cannot understand such notions, that is ok, really it is but learn to accept that rather than to attack your betters.

I actually find the notion of the BigXii having a guaranteed proportional revenue increase with expansion to be entirely plausibe. I also think they'd be fine with letting the misconception of a "locked in" contract persist because it looks better than other causes for the BigXii's hesitancy to expand (i.e. intrinsic inability to form balanced divisions). But still, you're one of the few proponents of a proportional revenue increase with BigXii expansion, so the burden of proof is on you. Being the better of everyone, you should be up to the task of delivering.

No, I never said I gave a **** if you believed me. You are the one that questioned it so the burden of proof is on you ye of little intelligence.

You are welcome to disbelieve all you want but this has been a topic of conversation many times here and links have been provided many times. Sorry I do not maintain a library of links so that I can educate the masses such as yourself upon request. Do it yourself, otherwise, I really don't give a damn.

Oh, and just to make sure this imbecilic conversation ceases and wilkie the troll is shut down, here is your link.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...0-12-or-14

Quote:The new Big 12 TV deal is expected to be announced any day, perhaps here this week as a celebration of the league's new-found strength. Within that deal is a clause that will give any new expansion candidates the same money as the current members (estimated to be at least $20 million per year).

One industry source said that number applies whether the Big 12 invites, "Appalachian State or Florida State." And according to another industry source, ESPN wouldn't stand in the way of Big 12 expansion even after negotiating a new deal with the ACC.

Wow, how tough was that? Stop being lazy. That took me like three minutes to track down. It was a CBS sports piece authored by Dennis Dodd. Those articles are commonplace around here. The fact that you needed to see that just shows that you are very new around here. You shouldn't question your betters and yes Wilkie I obviously am since this information wasn't common knowledge for him. Obviously I am your better too as you wouldn't have piped up if you had this knowledge.

Good ole troll Wilkie putting his foot in his mouth again.

(06-19-2014 07:59 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I do not think any of the current remaining P5 teams will move conferences for quit awhile. I think the real questions are:

1) Will the PAC 12 add two more teams?
2) Will the Big 12 ever get back to 12?
3) Will the P5 continue to allow Independents to play in the Championship game?
4) Will the P5 add a sxith conference?
5) Will BYU and Notre Dame football join a conference?
6) Who gets to move up?
BYU
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Central Florida
East Carolina
South Florida

I would love for the P5 to add a 6th conference. However, recent history and ESPiN prove otherwise. ESPiN, especially, will never allow UCONN to play amongst the "big" boys. It's a kind of self-hatred complex they (ESPiN) have. They set up shop in CT, and then do everything in their power to make sure UCONN remains in the have-not column. Not very smart, IMO.

There's no conspiracy to keep UConn out. The Huskies are just finding out what Kansas found out when UT was trying to broker Horns & Friends to the PAC and leave everyone else for dead: Elite basketball is simply not enough to guarantee a soft landing in a power conference.

(06-20-2014 06:47 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There's no conspiracy to keep UConn out. The Huskies are just finding out what Kansas found out when UT was trying to broker Horns & Friends to the PAC and leave everyone else for dead: Elite basketball is simply not enough to guarantee a soft landing in a power conference.

You keep telling yourself that that's true. It's not, but you're adorable thinking it is.

Kansas is as blue blood as they come in basketball and were facing being homeless.

Their best option was the Big East and even at the time the Jayhawk fans knew it was not a real power conference