Will autonomy/Division IV keep the Big Conferences from poaching each other?
I tend to think it will...
triple hell no.
the b10/sec and to a smaller extent the pac can raid whoever they want and the b12/acc will bend over and take it and say "thank you sir"
Realignment reminds of the tv show survivor. It helps to win the challenges to survive and advance but it's just as important to join the right alliance and stick together.
At least until you vote out everybody in the other tribe, then everybody starts to turn on each other. Weak members see what is coming and team up with other weak members to out vote the strong members. But then there is someone that keeps winning the challenges and can not be voted out, which screws up the power structure of the alliance. By the time the final winner is declared, everybody hates everybody because they all were guilty of lying and backstabbing.
(06-17-2014 12:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote: [ -> ]Will autonomy/Division IV keep the Big Conferences from poaching each other?
I tend to think it will...
Only if they put it in writing as a contractual agreement. Otherwise, see Missouri and Texas A&M.
There could be contraction from the bigger conferences as the money they thought they'd have doesn't play out.
There could be schools that don't want to participate in "paying players" and choose to focus more on academics.
The UMD/ACC lawsuit is something that everyone still keeps an eye on but other than that there doesn't seem to be anything that would lead anyone anywhere else. The Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac 12 are set financially and ACC members appear to want to remain there so there isn't anything pushing change.
Unless you know what the next market disruption is going to be and the best way to take advantage of it, there is no way to know the next move.
The P5 are stable right now because they've wringed out most of the available value in the current marketplace.
The next time there is a disruption, revenue maximizing might lead us to 20 or 30 team conferences or may cause the next rise of the independent.
(06-18-2014 08:36 AM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ]Unless you know what the next market disruption is going to be and the best way to take advantage of it, there is no way to know the next move.
The P5 are stable right now because they've wringed out most of the available value in the current marketplace.
The next time there is a disruption, revenue maximizing might lead us to 20 or 30 team conferences or may cause the next rise of the independent.
And if you know, you shouldn't be telling us. You should be making investments and making yourself rich.
I think the impact of the disruption is very unpredictable. It will happen, but doubtful there is a significant impact in the next decade. Over 30 years, certainly.
(06-18-2014 08:45 AM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ] (06-18-2014 08:36 AM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ]Unless you know what the next market disruption is going to be and the best way to take advantage of it, there is no way to know the next move.
The P5 are stable right now because they've wringed out most of the available value in the current marketplace.
The next time there is a disruption, revenue maximizing might lead us to 20 or 30 team conferences or may cause the next rise of the independent.
And if you know, you shouldn't be telling us. You should be making investments and making yourself rich.
I think the impact of the disruption is very unpredictable. It will happen, but doubtful there is a significant impact in the next decade. Over 30 years, certainly.
The video delivery marketplace is growing ripe for another disruption. Depending on customer adoption, we could have a big change as fast as 10-15 years.
Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done. It is very simple to understand how four conferences is better than five for every single school in a major conference. The problem comes in talking enough schools into the kind of complicated procedure required to make this happen.
There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities and yet they continuously say there is no one that is "worth it". Well since any combination would not cost any individual big 12 school a cut in pay, they must be talking about some other opportunity cost in regards to expanding to 12 huh?
I know what that opportunity cost is, a few others do too and it is quite alright if the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole.
August is almost here.
No, at some point, conference cleansing will occur. All of the P5 conferences will replace their revenue leeches! The only variable is time! After all when replacing the leeches will increase revenues it will happen.
(06-18-2014 12:51 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: [ -> ]No, at some point, conference cleansing will occur. All of the P5 conferences will replace their revenue leeches! The only variable is time! After all when replacing the leeches will increase revenues it will happen.
I know you don't really believe this.
(06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote: [ -> ]Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done. It is very simple to understand how four conferences is better than five for every single school in a major conference. The problem comes in talking enough schools into the kind of complicated procedure required to make this happen.
There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities and yet they continuously say there is no one that is "worth it". Well since any combination would not cost any individual big 12 school a cut in pay, they must be talking about some other opportunity cost in regards to expanding to 12 huh?
I know what that opportunity cost is, a few others do too and it is quite alright if the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole.
August is almost here.
Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?
Everything should be quiet right up till around 2025 when the Big 12 GOR runs out.
Then something may or may not happen but offers will be made under the table and behind closed doors.
(06-18-2014 12:51 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: [ -> ]No, at some point, conference cleansing will occur. All of the P5 conferences will replace their revenue leeches! The only variable is time! After all when replacing the leeches will increase revenues it will happen.
It's too difficult to just kick out a school or two, because of conference by-laws and political blowback. Otherwise it would have already happened because it would be worth a lot of money.
IMO a likely possibility if the big moneymakers decide to get aggressive is threatening to leave in order to force unequal revenue distribution within the conference. If, for example, Alabama effectively provides one-fourth of the SEC's market value, how long are they going to settle for one-fourteenth of the conference revenue?
(06-18-2014 05:18 PM)jrj84105 Wrote: [ -> ] (06-18-2014 12:42 PM)He1nousOne Wrote: [ -> ]Moving from 5 major conferences to 4 transfers more negotiating power to the conferences and away from the Networks. It has been a goal all along to achieve this but the problem has been about finding out how to get that done. It is very simple to understand how four conferences is better than five for every single school in a major conference. The problem comes in talking enough schools into the kind of complicated procedure required to make this happen.
There is one major conference that can provide the solution to the big problem. That conference already has it in their network contracts to have a boost in pay for ANY addition they make to get to 12 Universities and yet they continuously say there is no one that is "worth it". Well since any combination would not cost any individual big 12 school a cut in pay, they must be talking about some other opportunity cost in regards to expanding to 12 huh?
I know what that opportunity cost is, a few others do too and it is quite alright if the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole.
August is almost here.
Can I borrow someone's decoder?
1) How does BigXii expansion result in 4 conferences?
2) Am I the only one who has never heard of the BigXii's guaranteed increase payout with expansion?
3) How can the masses refuse to see the numbers on the whole if the critical opportunity cost is a secret?
Really? Big 12 expansion with the likes of UCF/Cincy would cause the contraction to four major conferences to be DOA. I don't see how that requires explanation, but there you go.
No, you aren't the only one. It has been said though by folks that matter. Do the digging yourself.
It's not a secret. It's just that your hand isn't going to be held all the way to full realization.
(06-18-2014 06:00 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]Everything should be quiet right up till around 2025 when the Big 12 GOR runs out.
Then something may or may not happen but offers will be made under the table and behind closed doors.
Won't take that long. But waiting that long makes for a very nice threat by those Big 12 powers.
We'll know sooner because Baylor and the others who won't get a power conference life boat will start pressuring UT/OU/KU to reup the GOR several years ahead of it running out so that they'll know their intentions if they won't resign early and can whine and cry to their politicians to try and buy themselves a few more years of reprieve.
(06-18-2014 10:43 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]We'll know sooner because Baylor and the others who won't get a power conference life boat will start pressuring UT/OU/KU to reup the GOR several years ahead of it running out so that they'll know their intentions if they won't resign early and can whine and cry to their politicians to try and buy themselves a few more years of reprieve.
But, the obvious UT/OU/KU response to any request to extend the GOR is, "The GOR runs concurrently with the TV rights deals. If those are extended or new ones are signed, we will extend the GOR at that time if our TV partners ask us to do that."
(06-18-2014 10:43 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]We'll know sooner because Baylor and the others who won't get a power conference life boat will start pressuring UT/OU/KU to reup the GOR several years ahead of it running out so that they'll know their intentions if they won't resign early and can whine and cry to their politicians to try and buy themselves a few more years of reprieve.
The only way it happens is IF those schools get the life raft. That is why it hasn't happened yet, because it isn't easy to get all parties involved that will have to be.
Everyone is still fighting for their best option possible. That and until "autonomy" is in place, there is no point in further expansion. New rules will be needed. There is no point in rocking the boat before that process is completed.