If Aiken and Nix both head to UCLA, have to wonder if NCAA goes after them for the "no agent" rule with the way this has all played out in the open.

Appears Houston has accomplished a hat trick for stupidity by GMs (Texans, Rockets, Astros) this year.

Perhaps Aiken becomes a knuckleball pitcher like RA Dickey who after being drafted was found not to have an UCL.


I can see the possibility of a lawsuit by Aiken based on a claim of discrimination by the Astros given the non-consensus of MD's on whether he is more likely to suffer an UCL injury.

It is time for MLB to go to a NFL combine type of evaluation before the draft where medical exams are done with the info given to the teams.

(07-17-2014 09:00 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Perhaps Aiken becomes a knuckleball pitcher like RA Dickey who after being drafted was found not to have an UCL.


I can see the possibility of a lawsuit by Aiken based on a claim of discrimination by the Astros given the non-consensus of MD's on whether he is more likely to suffer an UCL injury.

It is time for MLB to go to a NFL combine type of evaluation before the draft where medical exams are done with the info given to the teams.

I had a running "discussion" with a buddy and tried to carry it over to 610AM the other day. Rich Lord was going on and on about how stupid Luhnow looked drafting "damaged goods" at # 1. I've not heard that there's a "pre-draft" physical opportunity given MLB teams. I thought it a good sign that the 'Stros did the physical prior to signing the contract. I believe Lord was grinding the 'Stros because they're broadcast over a competitor.

I really wanted to get in his ear about the Texans' abysmal draft performance beginning with their very first pick, Tony Bocelli. I hung up after 30 minutes on hold. The talking heads were doing their usual Stevens & Pruett schtick. It wasn't worth any more battery usage to hold on further.

(07-17-2014 08:34 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Appears Houston has accomplished a hat trick for stupidity by GMs (Texans, Rockets, Astros) this year.

I think the Astros are in OK shape, and Luhnow will never be in Rick Smith territory.

Either they cave in and pay the ~6.5M for Aiken and get Nix for overslot. This is probably the worst option given the concerns with Aiken, but isn't that bad.

Or they sign Aiken for a discount, sign Nix, and maybe can then sign the other prep arm, Marshall, with the slot space saved by Aiken.

Or they get compensated with a pick next year and go 1-2, and maybe there's more of a clearer future superstar at the top of that draft.

(07-17-2014 12:35 PM)At Ease Wrote:  

(07-17-2014 08:34 AM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Appears Houston has accomplished a hat trick for stupidity by GMs (Texans, Rockets, Astros) this year.

I think the Astros are in OK shape, and Luhnow will never be in Rick Smith territory.

Either they cave in and pay the ~6.5M for Aiken and get Nix for overslot. This is probably the worst option given the concerns with Aiken, but isn't that bad.

Or they sign Aiken for a discount, sign Nix, and maybe can then sign the other prep arm, Marshall, with the slot space saved by Aiken.

Or they get compensated with a pick next year and go 1-2, and maybe there's more of a clearer future superstar at the top of that draft.

Really their options should only be your second and third options above. There is no reason to cave and give Aiken his money. Either he takes the minimum (or maybe a little more depending on the math with Nix and Marshall) and you get all 3, or they should walk away and take 1.2 next year. That would give them two likely top 5 picks and by far the largest draft pool.

It would suck to lose out on the guy you drafted number 1, but it's not worth committing 6.5 million to a guy with major UCL issues. You are better off in the long run folding your tent and trying again next year. To that effect, there absolutely should be pre-draft medicals so this type of thing doesn't happen.

Just remember, but I think 2 guys were drafted in the 1st round this year (Hoffman and someone else?) that just had tommy john surgery, so their UCL issues are probably at least as bad as whatever Aiken has going. To some extent, teams almost accept that pitchers will have to go under the knife, they just hope its an elbow issues instead of a shoulder issue.

As for Aiken, while I wouldn't take the Astros' low offer, seems like he'd be better off signing for $5 million than waiting. These negotiations have to give him at least some doubt as to whether the NCAA would target him, plus then he wouldn't re-enter the draft for 3 years (and subject himself to risk of injury). That makes him unlikely to get more in the draft than the Astros offer, assuming he and his agent can get them up some. Of course, he could always go to juco route to avoid the NCAA and re-enter the draft next year. But still no guarantee he gets multi-millions.

The difference between Aiken and Hoffman and Giolito and anyone else who needs Tommy John is that Aiken does not have a frayed UCL that can be fixed with Tommy John. He has an abnormally small UCL, that the Chronicle reports a guy saying, "He may have some (of the UCL), but not much." Tommy John will not fix that.

That is more along the lines of an RA Dickey situation, where Dickey had come to an agreement for an $810,000 bonus with the Rangers before being his lack of a UCL was discovered. He later signed for $75,000, bounced around forever and finally had to become a knuckleballer.

I may be in the minority here, but I think the Astros are absolutely doing the right thing (I also was in agreement with Morey's actions, so that puts me in an even smaller group). The last thing I'd want to do in Luhnow's shoes is commit $6.5 million to a broken pitcher whose ability to ever reach the big leagues is in serious doubt. They are going to offer him the minimum, and see if they can get 3 pitchers for the original price. They have to offer him the minimum (a little over 3 million) to get draft pick compensation if he doesn't sign anyways. If Aiken doesn't want it (and he should as he will never see this kind of payday again now that his medical info will be public knowledge), they should fold their tents and take the 1.2 pick next year.

There absolutely needs to be pre-draft medical exams so this type of stuff doesn't happen.

(07-17-2014 03:23 PM)RiceFootball2K5 Wrote:  The difference between Aiken and Hoffman and Giolito and anyone else who needs Tommy John is that Aiken does not have a frayed UCL that can be fixed with Tommy John. He has an abnormally small UCL, that the Chronicle reports a guy saying, "He may have some (of the UCL), but not much." Tommy John will not fix that.

I thought that when TJ surgery is done, the UCL is completely replaced with a tendon from elsewhere in the body. If this is done, wouldn't the "new" UCL be constructed of whatever tendon was used (so it wouldn't necessarily be thin/narrow like his current UCL)? Or maybe its just very complicated because the "new" UCL would be limited by narrow attachments where his current UCL is?

(07-17-2014 04:40 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(07-17-2014 03:23 PM)RiceFootball2K5 Wrote:  The difference between Aiken and Hoffman and Giolito and anyone else who needs Tommy John is that Aiken does not have a frayed UCL that can be fixed with Tommy John. He has an abnormally small UCL, that the Chronicle reports a guy saying, "He may have some (of the UCL), but not much." Tommy John will not fix that.

I thought that when TJ surgery is done, the UCL is completely replaced with a tendon from elsewhere in the body. If this is done, wouldn't the "new" UCL be constructed of whatever tendon was used (so it wouldn't necessarily be thin/narrow like his current UCL)? Or maybe its just very complicated because the "new" UCL would be limited by narrow attachments where his current UCL is?

I'm not a doctor, so I'm not exactly sure. From what I've read, even Tommy John isn't a guaranteed solution to Aiken's problem. Here's what the Crawfish Boxes had to say:

"He may have some (of the UCL), but not much," the person said, adding that Tommy John surgery, which has become common in baseball, would not be a straightforward solution in this instance.
Read that again. Brady Aiken does not have much of an ulnar collateral ligament, which connects the parts of the elbow to one another. According to our resident Doctor Brooks, this condition might contribute to Aiken's ability to throw 97 mph because there is less mechanical resistance to the moving parts of his arm, but it certainly increases the likelihood of catastrophic injury. Additionally, surgery to add a functional UCL into his arm could very well slow his arm action and reduce his velocity.
Incidentally, former Cy Young Winner R.A. Dickey does not have a UCL. But to succeed with his condition after a series of well-publicized struggles to pitch professionally, Dickey had to turn to the knuckleball and was not truly successful until age 34. Not a great comp for a 1-1 draft pick half his age."

Quote:Kendall Rogers ‏@KendallRogersPG

Also, told @RiceOwlsBSB RHP Matt Ditman, a @Cardinals 15th-rdr, has given all indications he will head back to #Rice for 2015. #mlbdraft

Wow ... sounds like the Astros did not sign Aiken.

When was the last time the #1 overall pick in the draft wasn't signed?

(07-18-2014 04:32 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  When was the last time the #1 overall pick in the draft wasn't signed?

From Jim Callis of MLB.com:

"Brady Aiken becomes third No. 1 overall pick not to sign, following Danny Goodwin (1971) & Tim Belcher (1983)"

Really sounds like the Aikens turned this personal and refused to negotiate.

Sad to see that my hometown team continues to be the worst organization in major league baseball.

(07-18-2014 05:28 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Sad to see that my hometown team continues to be the worst organization in major league baseball.

Disagree with that. But to each their own.

(07-18-2014 05:30 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  

(07-18-2014 05:28 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Sad to see that my hometown team continues to be the worst organization in major league baseball.

Disagree with that. But to each their own.

1. It should be "to each his own;

2. Three straight years of 100+ losses, blowing the 2013 top pick, not signing 2 of their top 10 picks in 2014, releasing a guy who is now hitting over.300 for a division-leading team, etc., etc.

3. And all of this while being in the 4th largest city in the U.S.

(07-18-2014 04:55 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  

(07-18-2014 04:32 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  When was the last time the #1 overall pick in the draft wasn't signed?

From Jim Callis of MLB.com:

"Brady Aiken becomes third No. 1 overall pick not to sign, following Danny Goodwin (1971) & Tim Belcher (1983)"

Really sounds like the Aikens turned this personal and refused to negotiate.

The money involved this year dwarves the two previous situations. In 1971, I suspect Goodwin got hardly anything offered (he ended up going to Southern). Belcher had already completed his collegiate eligibility in 1983 but was a supplemental pick in the draft a year later.

The only thing I can recall in recent years that compare to this would be a college football or basketball star turning down the #1 overall pick status to play another year of college ball.

(07-18-2014 05:46 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(07-18-2014 05:30 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  

(07-18-2014 05:28 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  Sad to see that my hometown team continues to be the worst organization in major league baseball.

Disagree with that. But to each their own.

1. It should be "to each his own;

2. Three straight years of 100+ losses, blowing the 2013 top pick, not signing 2 of their top 10 picks in 2014, releasing a guy who is now hitting over.300 for a division-leading team, etc., etc.

3. And all of this while being in the 4th largest city in the U.S.

Didn't mean to offend.

Not willing to give up on Appel just yet.

What happened with Aiken and Nix looks horrible. We will see how it turns out in the long run. Pieces are starting to come up from the farm. The next year or two is time critical for the Luhnow-led front office.

In hindsight, Ed Wade has turned out to be a better general manager than that fraud Luhnow.