(06-01-2014 08:23 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: Where this is going to go awry - and quickly - is when a second SEC or B12 school gets in ahead of a more or equally deserving conference champ. That will happen very quickly and very often, which is why an expansion of the playoff is all but inevitable.
I agree. I think in a basketball tournament, you can afford to have teams invited who might win a game or two but have very little chance of actually winning the whole thing. In football, the nature of the sport is such that you don't have that luxury. IMO, the goal should be to have a field large enough that every team with a realistic chance of winning it all is included.
That, of course, doesn't mean that any team without a realistic chance is excluded. Just that those teams who earned their way in through conference performance don't keep out one that does.
I have argued for a model that does away with conference championship games in order to have an additional playoff round without drastically expanding the length of the regular season. In my model, I solve the attendance/travel problem by having the first two rounds hosted by one of the participants. Only the final four games are played at neutral sites.
I propose a 12 team playoff, which includes every conference champion or co-champion ranked among the top 16, and any independent ranked in the top 12. The remaining spots (if any) go to the highest ranked runners-up. If there are more than 12 champions or co-champions, the 12 highest ranked are selected.
The four highest ranked champions get a first round bye, and host the second round games. First round hosts are the four highest ranked remaining champions or co-champions. First round games are played over the Thanksgiving weekend and the quarter finals a week later.
If this model had been in place last year, the tourney bracket would have looked like this:
#5 Mizzou (11-1, 7-1 SEC) hosts #9 South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC). Winner faces #4 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC).
#10 Michigan State (11-1, 8-0 B1G) hosts #16 UCF (11-1, 8-0 AAC). Winner at #2 Ohio State (12-0, 8-0 B1G).
#11 Arizona St (10-2, 8-1 PAC) hosts #14 Northern Illinois (12-0, 8-0 MAC). Winner at #1 Florida State (12-0, 8-0 ACC).
#6 Baylor (11-1, 8-1 Big12) hosts #7 Stanford (10-2, 7-2 PAC). Winner takes on #3 Auburn (11-1, 7-1 SEC).
Last year (2013) there were 3 teams that were outright conference champs, but ranked outside the top ten (Arizona State, Northern Illinois and Central Florida). Two of them are currently in G5 conferences. There were only two at-large selections, both with 2 losses - Stanford and South Carolina.
Bowl winners that were excluded include Louisville (12-1), Oregon (11-2), Clemson (11-2) and Oklahoma (11-2). Could one of these have won it all? I suppose. But none would have been favored to make the final four.