(05-21-2014 11:12 AM)texd Wrote: (05-21-2014 10:07 AM)NicevilleWRC Wrote: You're right, although since the big three all went within the first eight picks we know at least three of the top eight teams weren't overly concerned about their previous usage.
And had enough concern that other teams felt unconcerned that they could not hold off until the sandwich or second round.
FWIW, this was not the point I was trying to make.
We don't know anything about what the drafting teams thought about the Big 3 or what teams that passed on them thought. All we know is there draft position. I was not trying to make the point that teams were not concerned. I was not trying to make the point that teams were overly concerned. I was just making the point that
risk of injury (or health concerns) is a more important concept than actual health at the moment they were drafted. And that risk ultimately needs to get balanced with a player's upside, likelihood of reaching his upside, and many other factors. You can't simply point to draft position and ascribe value to the many different factors that went into a team's decision to draft that player at that time.
So just because a team drafts a player in the top 10 doesn't mean there aren't health concerns. It doesn't even mean there aren't huge health concerns. It just means that for that one team, those health concerns are overshadowed by the other, more positive factors.
At the same time, just because one team's physicians have extreme health concerns (which is what Klaw has written that the Blue Jays' doctors said about Niemann's health reports) doesn't mean other teams have the same opinion on a player's health concerns.
The fact that the Big 3 were drafted in the top 10 tells us nothing about how most MLB teams viewed their health concerns or risk of injury. It also doesn't tell us how any individual team viewed these players. It tells us nothing other than that any risks or concerns that might have been present were outweighed by other factors for the team that drafted each.
At the same time, Klaw writing about the Blue Jays' concerns tells us nothing about how other teams physicians' viewed these players. The Blue Jays could easily have been on the risk-averse end of the spectrum or had physicians that believed there was a higher risk based on their review of the medical records than other teams' physicians (because all doctors certainly will not agree when you are talking about gray areas like risk).
We just can't read too much into a single, isolated data point.