The Aggies come into Reckling looking to bounce back from a weekend home series loss to Kentucky, and desperately seeking an RPI boost as they are fighting for their post-season lives; currently on the bubble and probably on the outside looking in. Their overall record (24 - 17) is certainly good enough, but when you peel the onion a bit one realizes that that solid record is based on an out-of-conference schedule stocked full of home games against powerderpuff teams the likes of Northwestern x 3, Sacramento State x 3, Louisiana Tech x 3, UT-Pan American x 2, Houston Baptist, Stephen F. Austin, UT-Arlington, Texas Southern, Prairie View and Abilene Christian. With that many home games against teams with RPI rankings below 150, it's a wonder their Strength of Schedule is not even worse. Outside of their W-L record, their resume is sub-par: 4-8 on the road, 8-10 in SEC (and they still have series left vs. LSU, Ole Miss, MSU and Arkansas), 9-15 vs. Top 100. If not for their road series win a couple weekends back at Vandy, and their 16-1 record against sub-150 ranked RPI clubs (10-1 vs. sub-200 clubs), they would already be out of post-season contention. The Aggies currently have national rankings of #54 in ISR, #65 in RPI and #57 in SoS (vs. #13, #9 and #18 rankings, respectively, for the Owls). Unbelievably, this week's game at Reckling will be their very first mid-week game on the road all season (after playing their first 11 consecutive 2014 mid-week games at home).
Here's their schedule and results over their first 40 games...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/schedule/Texas-AM
Offensively, the Aggies are hitting a very respectable .284/.362/.378 as a team, with 16 HRs, 42-56 SBs and averaging a healthy 5.9 runs per game. However, after looking at their run totals for individual games, they have been feasting on mid-week and Sunday starters, and struggling against better pitching. They do not appear to be playing small ball as much as in recent seasons (with only 26 sac bunts so far), but are still very aggressive on the basepaths. Looking at the stat sheet, what jumps out is a very low frequency of both walks and strikeouts, best reflected in the numbers of their leading hitter, Cole Lankford (.319/.341/.444, 4 HRs, 8 doubles, 33 RBIs....but only 8 BBs and 9 Ks in 160 ABs). In fact, they strike out less than 5 times per game, which is an exceptional low number for a team; especially one playing in the SEC. Once can only conclude that they are a VERY aggressive at the plate, with little patience, but good contact hitters that do a very good job of putting balls in play.
Defensively, they post an above-average .971 fielding percentage, with only one everyday position player with more than 3 errors (their SS has committed 11 errors). However, they've only turned 17 ground ball double plays, and their catchers have only thrown out 20% of attempted basestealers. We may be able to run on these guys.
On the mound, they have a nationally ranked strikeout rate (8.2 Ks per game) and an excellent K:BB ratio (2.8), but their 3.56 ERA and .259 BAA are only average; especially when considering the very weak and home-baked OOC schedule. In all likelihood, their starting pitcher against us will either be Jr RHP Corey Ray (10 app, 1 start, 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, .191 BAA, 4 BBs, 11 Ks, 0 xtrabase hits) or So LHP Matt Kent (11 app, 4 starts, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, .313 BAA, 4 BBs, 19 Ks, 31 hits). Given both have pitched predominantly in mid-week games against relatively weak competition, they appear to be very hittable.
Here's the roster and stat sheet for the Aggies...
http://www.aggieathletics.com/SportSelec...SID=632713
http://www.aggieathletics.com/ViewConten...0#TEAM.MLB
Let's keep the momentum building heading into our big road weekend series vs. Southern Miss. Just win, baby! Go Owls!