Part 2 will deal with the B12.

Its clear that the Pac, B1G and SEC aren't going anywhere. The B12 is clearly #5, but the ACC is a close 4th.

So first we'll deal with the ACC.

We came close in 2011/12 with multiple rumors that FSU (and Clemson as a partner) could be interested in defecting. Given FSU just won a Nat Championship within the current ACC, I think its now unlikely they entertain a move anywhere but the SEC.

Which means the dissolution comes from another source.

The most likely culprit is the SEC going after a state/market they would love to tap - North Carolina State. NC State doesn't lose out much on travel and gains some independence/distinction from big brother UNC and maybe a recruiting advantage in football.

This only becomes fatal if the B1G comes in and makes offers to UNC, Virginia or Georgia Tech. (All Top 50 AAU schools academically). If this happens, FSU probably gets its SEC invite.

So lose UNC, NC State, FSU and Virginia, and suddenly the ACC is grasping for straws to get back up to speed-

UConn, WVU, Cinci, UCF are not great replacements. And you have to ask whether Notre Dame maintains its arrangements.

Next... how the B12 dies (much easier to contemplate)

Seems pretty unlikely

They would just add Texas, Oklahoma, WVU, Kansas.

It's all coming together now.

One thing people are forgetting with the ACC is the power of its basketball brand. Strong basketball names were enough to push the old Big East conference to 13 million per school before defections.

The ACC has pretty much stolen the heart of BE basketball along with the big football brands that it has in FSU, Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech. This in addition to having Duke-UNC in the conference and Notre Dame as an associate member. This group is going to be worth a lot in time as Final Fours and playoff bid roll in.

Ditto for the B12, especially if they can replicate a strong basketball model like the ACC and a scheduling agreement with BYU possibly for bowls. Texas won't pull the trigger on a move as long as the B12 remains a functional power conference.

Killing the ACC will give rise to NBC. Everyone remaining will flock to ND. Including the Big East basketball schools.

(02-09-2014 07:52 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Part 2 will deal with the B12.

Its clear that the Pac, B1G and SEC aren't going anywhere. The B12 is clearly #5, but the ACC is a close 4th.

So first we'll deal with the ACC.

We came close in 2011/12 with multiple rumors that FSU (and Clemson as a partner) could be interested in defecting. Given FSU just won a Nat Championship within the current ACC, I think its now unlikely they entertain a move anywhere but the SEC.

Which means the dissolution comes from another source.

The most likely culprit is the SEC going after a state/market they would love to tap - North Carolina State. NC State doesn't lose out much on travel and gains some independence/distinction from big brother UNC and maybe a recruiting advantage in football.

This only becomes fatal if the B1G comes in and makes offers to UNC, Virginia or Georgia Tech. (All Top 50 AAU schools academically). If this happens, FSU probably gets its SEC invite.

So lose UNC, NC State, FSU and Virginia, and suddenly the ACC is grasping for straws to get back up to speed-

UConn, WVU, Cinci, UCF are not great replacements. And you have to ask whether Notre Dame maintains its arrangements.

Next... how the B12 dies (much easier to contemplate)

No

There is no way that happens. All of the Tobacco Road schools stay together at all cost.

The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

(02-09-2014 10:47 PM)Star City Hokie Wrote:  The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

yep. tobacco road likes each other. they want to stay together. clemson and fsu are the only ones not in their ideal conference but their ideal conference does not fit for them right now so they are where they are.

North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, and Virginia Tech are not leaving the ACC. Ever.

(02-09-2014 10:47 PM)Star City Hokie Wrote:  The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

Well that's not going to happen. If the SEC had wanted them they would have gotten them almost 2 years ago. So the question is why didn't the SEC want them? Because the SEC is almost owned by ESPN and the ACC is owned by ESPN and ESPN isn't going to waste an open slot by moving one of its properties to another of its properties when Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are not fully in one of their camps. The game is about product acquisition by the networks. They pay for the moves. Why pay Florida State more in the SEC where CBS owns a tiny slither of product when you can fully own them form less money by keeping them in the ACC. That is why the ACC will never be raided by the SEC unless another FOX backed conference has breached ACC security and ESPN is looking to shelter product in another of its properties.

The ACC gives ESPN some of the best basketball in the Northeast, the best basketball on the Mid Atlantic, and the rest of the best football property in the Southeast to go along with what they have assembled in the SEC.

The scheduling alliance is how the Mouse intends to maximize content. Let the best basketball in the ACC schedule games with L.S.U., Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri and your content value goes way up. Let Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech schedule games with the SEC and the content goes way up and almost all of the profits stay in house. Between the two ESPN owns the best college basketball, arguably the best college football, and 2/3rds of the best college baseball in the nation.

So when realignment happens again another reason the Big 12 will be on the menu is that both FOX and ESPN have property interest in the Big 12. Texas is beholden to the Mouse and Kansas to a lesser extent. Oklahoma is beholden to FOX in about the same amount that Kansas is beholden to ESPN. The rest have T3 rights that are small enough to be bought out easily. Neither FOX nor ESPN own any of the PAC they lease that product. So if, or when, realignment breaks out again it will be ESPN trying to land Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virgnia, and perhaps Oklahoma State in either the SEC or ACC. Those are the 5 most profitable properties of the Big 12.

If for instance ESPN lands Texas and Oklahoma they will own 7 of the 10 most valuable college programs in the nation, the most viewed conference, the conference with the best market footprint, and the conferences with the best product. That is the game and ESPN isn't going to let FOX sneak up on them again. So my money would be on the long term stability of the ACC and therefore upon a long term successful relationship with the SEC. Maybe there is eventually a team, maybe two that get swapped between them, maybe not. But the SEC and ACC will both remain sheltered because nothing would please ESPN any more than to have another ACC vs SEC national championship game in football or a Kentucky vs Duke or Florida vs Syracuse final in the NCAA tournament.

When the Big 12 GOR is up the money will be for moves not for stasis and that's when this all gets resolved.

So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

(02-09-2014 11:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-09-2014 10:47 PM)Star City Hokie Wrote:  The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

Well that's not going to happen. If the SEC had wanted them they would have gotten them almost 2 years ago. So the question is why didn't the SEC want them? Because the SEC is almost owned by ESPN and the ACC is owned by ESPN and ESPN isn't going to waste an open slot by moving one of its properties to another of its properties when Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are not fully in one of their camps. The game is about product acquisition by the networks. They pay for the moves. Why pay Florida State more in the SEC where CBS owns a tiny slither of product when you can fully own them form less money by keeping them in the ACC. That is why the ACC will never be raided by the SEC unless another FOX backed conference has breached ACC security and ESPN is looking to shelter product in another of its properties.

The ACC gives ESPN some of the best basketball in the Northeast, the best basketball on the Mid Atlantic, and the rest of the best football property in the Southeast to go along with what they have assembled in the SEC.

The scheduling alliance is how the Mouse intends to maximize content. Let the best basketball in the ACC schedule games with L.S.U., Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri and your content value goes way up. Let Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech schedule games with the SEC and the content goes way up and almost all of the profits stay in house. Between the two ESPN owns the best college basketball, arguably the best college football, and 2/3rds of the best college baseball in the nation.

So when realignment happens again another reason the Big 12 will be on the menu is that both FOX and ESPN have property interest in the Big 12. Texas is beholden to the Mouse and Kansas to a lesser extent. Oklahoma is beholden to FOX in about the same amount that Kansas is beholden to ESPN. The rest have T3 rights that are small enough to be bought out easily. Neither FOX nor ESPN own any of the PAC they lease that product. So if, or when, realignment breaks out again it will be ESPN trying to land Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virgnia, and perhaps Oklahoma State in either the SEC or ACC. Those are the 5 most profitable properties of the Big 12.

If for instance ESPN lands Texas and Oklahoma they will own 7 of the 10 most valuable college programs in the nation, the most viewed conference, the conference with the best market footprint, and the conferences with the best product. That is the game and ESPN isn't going to let FOX sneak up on them again. So my money would be on the long term stability of the ACC and therefore upon a long term successful relationship with the SEC. Maybe there is eventually a team, maybe two that get swapped between them, maybe not. But the SEC and ACC will both remain sheltered because nothing would please ESPN any more than to have another ACC vs SEC national championship game in football or a Kentucky vs Duke or Florida vs Syracuse final in the NCAA tournament.

When the Big 12 GOR is up the money will be for moves not for stasis and that's when this all gets resolved.

So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

I would LOVE it if the ACC landed Texas in a ND-like deal (with the LHN and ABC covering Texas' non-ACC content), and the SEC landed OU and OSU to get to 16.

And, if the NCAA did go to 13 regular season games, I can see the ACC going to a 9 game season and negotiating an extra 2 games/yr out of Texas and ND each (it would only mean the loss of one current OOC game for ND). That would mean that every ACC team would play Texas and ND at home once every 4 years, every cross division team at home once every 6 years, and every division team (plus perm rival) once every other year. It would also put Texas completely in ESPN's grasp, secure the ACC, give the SEC OU and OSU (while reuniting OU with TAMU and Houston recruiting), and allow Texas to play OU, Texas Tech, Nebraska, TAMU, 7 games up and down the Atlantic coat, an FCS team, and either another Texas team (UH, SMU, Rice, TCU, Baylor, etc.) or an interesting OOC matchup (i.e. ND) every year, plus associate with great academic institutions and excellent basketball.

The B1G could get KU (who I would imagine would be high on their wish list) and some other school (WVU?, KSU?, ISU?), which would align with the B1G's/Fox's newfound emphasis on basketball. Michigan, OSU, IU, Wisc., and KU would also challenge SU, Duke, UNC, UL, and Pitt.

The Pac could then get Texas Tech (I don' think that the horns could leave the Big XII unless TTU is safe) and 1-3 other schools, depending on whether they wanted to go to 16 or not.

(02-09-2014 11:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='Star City Hokie' pid='10409697' dateline='1392004048']


So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

Which is why I think UConn is priming itself for an AAU bid and B1G membership.

The only question then is who is Team #16?

(02-10-2014 01:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(02-09-2014 11:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='Star City Hokie' pid='10409697' dateline='1392004048']


So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

Which is why I think UConn is priming itself for an AAU bid and B1G membership.

The only question then is who is Team #16?

Under that scenario Kansas. ESPN swaps Kansas's Tier 3 for Oklahoma's Tier 3 with FOX. The contracts are already close to being equal.

(02-09-2014 07:52 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Part 2 will deal with the B12.

Its clear that the Pac, B1G and SEC aren't going anywhere. The B12 is clearly #5, but the ACC is a close 4th.

So first we'll deal with the ACC.

We came close in 2011/12 with multiple rumors that FSU (and Clemson as a partner) could be interested in defecting. Given FSU just won a Nat Championship within the current ACC, I think its now unlikely they entertain a move anywhere but the SEC.

Which means the dissolution comes from another source.

The most likely culprit is the SEC going after a state/market they would love to tap - North Carolina State. NC State doesn't lose out much on travel and gains some independence/distinction from big brother UNC and maybe a recruiting advantage in football.

This only becomes fatal if the B1G comes in and makes offers to UNC, Virginia or Georgia Tech. (All Top 50 AAU schools academically). If this happens, FSU probably gets its SEC invite.

So lose UNC, NC State, FSU and Virginia, and suddenly the ACC is grasping for straws to get back up to speed-

UConn, WVU, Cinci, UCF are not great replacements. And you have to ask whether Notre Dame maintains its arrangements.

Next... how the B12 dies (much easier to contemplate)

Oh my god, i can see north carolina rocking when obvious rivals nebraska, wisconsin, Iowa, and minnesota come to town. The only thing better then that is sucking so much at football your national championship caliber team gets spanked by "overrated" clemson. Whopeeee!!!!

JR You couldn't have made it any more obvious. The SEC and ACC are the most stable conferences. Then the B1G and PAC.

(02-10-2014 01:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(02-09-2014 11:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='Star City Hokie' pid='10409697' dateline='1392004048']


So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

Which is why I think UConn is priming itself for an AAU bid and B1G membership.

The only question then is who is Team #16?

UConn's football stadium is over 20 miles from campus, and AAU status is close to irrelevant (not that any new schools are going to be added any time soon, anyway). UConn isn't going to the B1G.

(02-09-2014 11:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-09-2014 10:47 PM)Star City Hokie Wrote:  The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

Well that's not going to happen. If the SEC had wanted them they would have gotten them almost 2 years ago. So the question is why didn't the SEC want them? Because the SEC is almost owned by ESPN and the ACC is owned by ESPN and ESPN isn't going to waste an open slot by moving one of its properties to another of its properties when Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are not fully in one of their camps. The game is about product acquisition by the networks. They pay for the moves. Why pay Florida State more in the SEC where CBS owns a tiny slither of product when you can fully own them form less money by keeping them in the ACC. That is why the ACC will never be raided by the SEC unless another FOX backed conference has breached ACC security and ESPN is looking to shelter product in another of its properties.

The ACC gives ESPN some of the best basketball in the Northeast, the best basketball on the Mid Atlantic, and the rest of the best football property in the Southeast to go along with what they have assembled in the SEC.

The scheduling alliance is how the Mouse intends to maximize content. Let the best basketball in the ACC schedule games with L.S.U., Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri and your content value goes way up. Let Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, and Georgia Tech schedule games with the SEC and the content goes way up and almost all of the profits stay in house. Between the two ESPN owns the best college basketball, arguably the best college football, and 2/3rds of the best college baseball in the nation.

So when realignment happens again another reason the Big 12 will be on the menu is that both FOX and ESPN have property interest in the Big 12. Texas is beholden to the Mouse and Kansas to a lesser extent. Oklahoma is beholden to FOX in about the same amount that Kansas is beholden to ESPN. The rest have T3 rights that are small enough to be bought out easily. Neither FOX nor ESPN own any of the PAC they lease that product. So if, or when, realignment breaks out again it will be ESPN trying to land Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virgnia, and perhaps Oklahoma State in either the SEC or ACC. Those are the 5 most profitable properties of the Big 12.

If for instance ESPN lands Texas and Oklahoma they will own 7 of the 10 most valuable college programs in the nation, the most viewed conference, the conference with the best market footprint, and the conferences with the best product. That is the game and ESPN isn't going to let FOX sneak up on them again. So my money would be on the long term stability of the ACC and therefore upon a long term successful relationship with the SEC. Maybe there is eventually a team, maybe two that get swapped between them, maybe not. But the SEC and ACC will both remain sheltered because nothing would please ESPN any more than to have another ACC vs SEC national championship game in football or a Kentucky vs Duke or Florida vs Syracuse final in the NCAA tournament.

When the Big 12 GOR is up the money will be for moves not for stasis and that's when this all gets resolved.

So the SEC isn't raiding the ACC and the Big 10 won't be raiding them either. If Delany wants AAU schools on the coast he's going to have to find them in California and Washington.

Good analysis.

First, the B1G, P12 and SEC are never going to break up. In addition to their financial strength and historical relationships, they each have television networks that commit them to stay together into the 2030's. Thus, any major realignment in the future would likely involve one or more of these conferences expanding, presumably with schools from the B12 or ACC.

In the most recent go round, the SEC really wanted UNC, UVA or possibly VT to come in with TAMU. Basically, there was an unmistakable "Open for Business" sign over the SEC's front door, but none of its targets flinched. The ACC ultimately lost one school but that school, Maryland, was suffering from major financial problems. The B12, by comparison, lost 4 major schools and had 4 others in serious discussions of leaving.

The B12 GOR runs through the 2024-25 season and the ACC GOR runs through the 2026-27 season. The Longhorn Network is contracted through 2030-31. The next potential move is therefore a raid on the B12 for the 2025-26 season.

As I have said, Texas is going to be the driver of any future realignment and they have previously been the rumored target of the B1G and P12, and of course the ACC was rumored to be exploring an ND style arrangement for Texas. I imagine the SEC would have interest as well. Basically, Texas might have the following options:

B12 - current 10 school alignment
B1G - Texas and Kansas to the B1G
P12 - Texas, TTU, OU and OSU to P12
SEC - Texas and one other (OU? WVU?) to the SEC
ACC - Texas to the ACC for hoops and Olympic sports, with a scheduling and bowl alliance for football

It is really Texas's choice of P5 conferences. If they leave the B12, that could trigger a round of musical chairs.

(02-09-2014 10:47 PM)Star City Hokie Wrote:  The only way to kill the ACC is for the SEC to invite Florida State and Clemson. Thats it.

The Virginia schools and North Carolina schools are already in their #1 choice of conference and are completely happy.

Exactly. This. It's just that simple.

And because the SEC is not inviting those teams, the ACC will survive.

The only thing to watch out for is any change of heart or shift in the landscape which would make the SEC do an about face on FSU/CU.

I don't see it happening. The status quo is GREAT for the SEC. The stability is perfect for them, even without the states of NC or VA. If they destabilize the ACC, there is always the possibility the B1G gets desperate/forward-thinking enough to try to go to 20 with UNC/UVA/Duke/Clemson/GT/FSU.

I don't think the SEC wants that for one second. What they would pick up in VA and NC would be nothing compared to what the B1G would gain in that deal.

Right now the SEC can sit there while the B1G prints dollar after dollar and signs one 30+ ranked recruiting class after another and is wealthy and irrelevant. They can keep their little brother ACC close by healthy and mostly inferior.

If FSU and CU aren't invited to the SEC, nothing is happening. People conveniently forget that UNC,UVA and possibly GT, NCSU, and VT all had opportunities to go to the B1G and/or SEC when the ACC was much more poorly paid, had a lower buyout, and no GOR, and was at the nadir of their football success. The idea that all of a sudden the B1G will be able to pull UNC now that the conference is on an upswing, has been stabilized, and most importantly a GOR has been signed, is just foolish. They're where they want to be.

With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that two conferences merged, ACC and BE.

ACC is now very strong.