(11-17-2013 11:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

This is what I'm thinking

Orange will be Clemson vs UCF

Fiesta will be Baylor vs Fresno/NIU

Sugar will be SEC#2 vs B12/B1G #2

Clemson may have a really hard time remaining in the top 15 if they lose badly to South Carolina. If I were UCF I would be praying that Clemson ends up around 14.

(11-17-2013 09:39 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  Here's what I got, based on this week's BCS:

NCG: #1 Alabama vs #2 FSU
Rose: #3 Ohio State vs #5 Oregon
Orange: #7 Clemson vs #9 Stanford/#10 Oklahoma State/#13 Michigan State
Sugar: #6 Auburn vs #18 UCF
Fiesta: #4 Baylor vs #15 Fresno State

I suppose you could switch the at-large triumverate choice from the Orange to the Sugar and put UCF in the Orange, but I think the OB would rather snub the American and UCF and take a P5 team, even one that won't sell very many tickets in Miami.

And compare that lineup with the 2014 CFP lineup which could very well be like this:

Sugar: #1 Alabama vs #4 Baylor
Rose: #2 FSU vs #3 Ohio State
Orange: #7 Clemson vs #6 Auburn
Fiesta: #5 Oregon vs #8 Missouri
Cotton: #9 Stanford vs #15 Fresno State
Peach: #10 Oklahoma State vs #11 South Carolina

(11-18-2013 02:08 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 11:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

This is what I'm thinking

Orange will be Clemson vs UCF

Fiesta will be Baylor vs Fresno/NIU

Sugar will be SEC#2 vs B12/B1G #2

Clemson may have a really hard time remaining in the top 15 if they lose badly to South Carolina. If I were UCF I would be praying that Clemson ends up around 14.

Clemson does not have to stay in the Top 14 to play in the Orange Bowl. My understanding is that the OB has to take a second ACC team to replace FSU.

It's not a lock that Fresno State beats Boise State again for the MW title. They only won by one point earlier this year.

Northern Illinois needs to pull for Boise State.


I think the following plays out:

NC - 13-0 Bama/FSU 13-0
Rose - 12-1 Oregon/Ohio State 13-0
Orange - 11-1 or 10-2 Clemson/MSU 11-2
Sugar - 10-2 Auburn/UCF 11-1
Fiesta - 13-0 Baylor/Northern Illinois 13-0

I think Michigan State's extra win gives them the edge over Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl's eye, but if OU wins out at 10-2 they might get the spot, and I suppose it's possible that an 11-1 OSU gets the bid. If MSU lucks up and beats Ohio State, Ohio State gets the Orange Bowl bid.

They only way Clemson misses the Orange Bowl is for FSU to lose to Miami or Duke in the ACC championship game. In that case FSU becomes the second ACC team and will depend on the Orange Bowl taking UCF so as to allow FSU into the Sugar Bowl. Given Miami's recent losses and Duke's tiny fan base, that might not happen - screwing a 12-1 FSU team out of a BCS game.

(11-18-2013 02:04 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:30 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 12:20 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  To reiterate, the BCS blows and I think everyone knows it. South Carolina's situation is hardly unique.

No one is holding South Carolina at gun point and forcing them to be in the SEC so stop complaining. No offense intended but if SC was in another conference they may actually make BCS bowls.

It's this foolish train of thought that has ruining college football. Every strong team thinks they need to be in the same conference vs just spreading out into different conferences and having a real playoff.

Loaded conferences are great for fans and for competitiveness. What is needed is definitely not diluted competition.

A larger playoff with no autobids would mean that if you're one of the best teams, you can be in the playoffs even if you're in an elite league where it's not so easy to be 12-0.

The competition wouldn't be diluted, it would still be there, just in different conferences. Same number of teams overall. Then you could have a playoff with conference champions. Teams that won on the field, instead of getting voted in. I know, it's a pipe dream.

(11-18-2013 10:21 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 02:08 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 11:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

This is what I'm thinking

Orange will be Clemson vs UCF

Fiesta will be Baylor vs Fresno/NIU

Sugar will be SEC#2 vs B12/B1G #2

Clemson may have a really hard time remaining in the top 15 if they lose badly to South Carolina. If I were UCF I would be praying that Clemson ends up around 14.

Clemson does not have to stay in the Top 14 to play in the Orange Bowl. My understanding is that the OB has to take a second ACC team to replace FSU.

It's not a lock that Fresno State beats Boise State again for the MW title. They only won by one point earlier this year.

Northern Illinois needs to pull for Boise State.


I think the following plays out:

NC - 13-0 Bama/FSU 13-0
Rose - 12-1 Oregon/Ohio State 13-0
Orange - 11-1 or 10-2 Clemson/MSU 11-2
Sugar - 10-2 Auburn/UCF 11-1
Fiesta - 13-0 Baylor/Northern Illinois 13-0

I think Michigan State's extra win gives them the edge over Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl's eye, but if OU wins out at 10-2 they might get the spot, and I suppose it's possible that an 11-1 OSU gets the bid. If MSU lucks up and beats Ohio State, Ohio State gets the Orange Bowl bid.

They only way Clemson misses the Orange Bowl is for FSU to lose to Miami or Duke in the ACC championship game. In that case FSU becomes the second ACC team and will depend on the Orange Bowl taking UCF so as to allow FSU into the Sugar Bowl. Given Miami's recent losses and Duke's tiny fan base, that might not happen - screwing a 12-1 FSU team out of a BCS game.

The OB agreement where they have to take the next ACC team starts next year. This year the OB can take whomever they wish.

(11-18-2013 12:00 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 10:21 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 02:08 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 11:01 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

This is what I'm thinking

Orange will be Clemson vs UCF

Fiesta will be Baylor vs Fresno/NIU

Sugar will be SEC#2 vs B12/B1G #2

Clemson may have a really hard time remaining in the top 15 if they lose badly to South Carolina. If I were UCF I would be praying that Clemson ends up around 14.

Clemson does not have to stay in the Top 14 to play in the Orange Bowl. My understanding is that the OB has to take a second ACC team to replace FSU.

It's not a lock that Fresno State beats Boise State again for the MW title. They only won by one point earlier this year.

Northern Illinois needs to pull for Boise State.


I think the following plays out:

NC - 13-0 Bama/FSU 13-0
Rose - 12-1 Oregon/Ohio State 13-0
Orange - 11-1 or 10-2 Clemson/MSU 11-2
Sugar - 10-2 Auburn/UCF 11-1
Fiesta - 13-0 Baylor/Northern Illinois 13-0

I think Michigan State's extra win gives them the edge over Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl's eye, but if OU wins out at 10-2 they might get the spot, and I suppose it's possible that an 11-1 OSU gets the bid. If MSU lucks up and beats Ohio State, Ohio State gets the Orange Bowl bid.

They only way Clemson misses the Orange Bowl is for FSU to lose to Miami or Duke in the ACC championship game. In that case FSU becomes the second ACC team and will depend on the Orange Bowl taking UCF so as to allow FSU into the Sugar Bowl. Given Miami's recent losses and Duke's tiny fan base, that might not happen - screwing a 12-1 FSU team out of a BCS game.

The OB agreement where they have to take the next ACC team starts next year. This year the OB can take whomever they wish.

I think you are wrong. When the ACC signed the current OB agreement back in 2006, the OB had to take a second ACC team if the that team went into the NC game. It's my understanding that the wording of the contract is such that the OB is obligated to take an ACC team. It does not have to be the second team, but in this case anyone from the ACC other than Clemson makes no financial sense.

nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

(11-18-2013 01:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

My point was that the Orange Bowl is in fact obligated to take an ACC team, either as ACC champion or if the ACC champion has moved to the NC game. I agree that if lightening strikes and Duke ends up in the Orange Bowl, the OB will take someone to sell tickets - probably MSU or Wisky as long as they are in the top 14.

I think the question was what the OB's responsibility was relative to the ACC and as I understand it, the OB is on the hook for an ACC team.

(11-18-2013 01:37 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

My point was that the Orange Bowl is in fact obligated to take an ACC team, either as ACC champion or if the ACC champion has moved to the NC game. I agree that if lightening strikes and Duke ends up in the Orange Bowl, the OB will take someone to sell tickets - probably MSU or Wisky as long as they are in the top 14.

I think the question was what the OB's responsibility was relative to the ACC and as I understand it, the OB is on the hook for an ACC team.

This year they are not on the hook. They can take whomever they want. Logically, they will most likely take an ACC, but they don't have to.

(11-18-2013 01:44 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:37 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

My point was that the Orange Bowl is in fact obligated to take an ACC team, either as ACC champion or if the ACC champion has moved to the NC game. I agree that if lightening strikes and Duke ends up in the Orange Bowl, the OB will take someone to sell tickets - probably MSU or Wisky as long as they are in the top 14.

I think the question was what the OB's responsibility was relative to the ACC and as I understand it, the OB is on the hook for an ACC team.

This year they are not on the hook. They can take whomever they want. Logically, they will most likely take an ACC, but they don't have to.

I think you are correct - I finished reading this year's rules (actually rules for 2011-2014 and they seem different than what I remember and I suppose they superceede the conferences 2006 agreement with the OB) However from a practical standpoint, the rules probably paint the OB into a choice between Clemson, Stanford, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Clemson will not fall out of the top 14 if they lose to SC, but MSU might fall out if they lose to Ohio State.

The scenario that would screw Clemson would be if Ok. State beats Baylor and Michigan State beats Ohio State combined with a Clemson loss to SC. That would put MSU as the Rose Bowl host against Oregon, and Oklahoma State as the host of the Fiesta, leaving a top 5 Ohio State team with a bowl need - then the Orange could take them as the FSU replacement. Then as the pick for OSU's opponent it would be one-loss Baylor team, against a two loss Clemson and a two loss Stanford for that spot. Clemson might lose out on that scenario. Although they probably would sell 30K tickets for a game with Ohio State.

(11-18-2013 02:00 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:44 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:37 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

My point was that the Orange Bowl is in fact obligated to take an ACC team, either as ACC champion or if the ACC champion has moved to the NC game. I agree that if lightening strikes and Duke ends up in the Orange Bowl, the OB will take someone to sell tickets - probably MSU or Wisky as long as they are in the top 14.

I think the question was what the OB's responsibility was relative to the ACC and as I understand it, the OB is on the hook for an ACC team.

This year they are not on the hook. They can take whomever they want. Logically, they will most likely take an ACC, but they don't have to.

I think you are correct - I finished reading this year's rules (actually rules for 2011-2014 and they seem different than what I remember and I suppose they superceede the conferences 2006 agreement with the OB) However from a practical standpoint, the rules probably paint the OB into a choice between Clemson, Stanford, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Clemson will not fall out of the top 14 if they lose to SC, but MSU might fall out if they lose to Ohio State.

The scenario that would screw Clemson would be if Ok. State beats Baylor and Michigan State beats Ohio State combined with a Clemson loss to SC. That would put MSU as the Rose Bowl host against Oregon, and Oklahoma State as the host of the Fiesta, leaving a top 5 Ohio State team with a bowl need - then the Orange could take them as the FSU replacement. Then as the pick for OSU's opponent it would be one-loss Baylor team, against a two loss Clemson and a two loss Stanford for that spot. Clemson might lose out on that scenario. Although they probably would sell 30K tickets for a game with Ohio State.

Orange won't take Baylor over Clemson.

the only way clemson doesn't go Orange is if FSU loses and doesn't make the title game.

(11-18-2013 02:07 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 02:00 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:44 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:37 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 01:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  nope- the agreement is the Orange can take anyone if they're in the top 14.

If FSU loses to Duke in the ACCCG, Duke goes to the Orange. If that happens, Orange would take for sure a Big Ten team.

The ONLY thing that could happen is if FSU finished #4 in that scenario, they would become automatic at large. Then UCF goes Orange and FSU goes Sugar.

My point was that the Orange Bowl is in fact obligated to take an ACC team, either as ACC champion or if the ACC champion has moved to the NC game. I agree that if lightening strikes and Duke ends up in the Orange Bowl, the OB will take someone to sell tickets - probably MSU or Wisky as long as they are in the top 14.

I think the question was what the OB's responsibility was relative to the ACC and as I understand it, the OB is on the hook for an ACC team.

This year they are not on the hook. They can take whomever they want. Logically, they will most likely take an ACC, but they don't have to.

I think you are correct - I finished reading this year's rules (actually rules for 2011-2014 and they seem different than what I remember and I suppose they superceede the conferences 2006 agreement with the OB) However from a practical standpoint, the rules probably paint the OB into a choice between Clemson, Stanford, Michigan State, and Oklahoma State. Clemson will not fall out of the top 14 if they lose to SC, but MSU might fall out if they lose to Ohio State.

The scenario that would screw Clemson would be if Ok. State beats Baylor and Michigan State beats Ohio State combined with a Clemson loss to SC. That would put MSU as the Rose Bowl host against Oregon, and Oklahoma State as the host of the Fiesta, leaving a top 5 Ohio State team with a bowl need - then the Orange could take them as the FSU replacement. Then as the pick for OSU's opponent it would be one-loss Baylor team, against a two loss Clemson and a two loss Stanford for that spot. Clemson might lose out on that scenario. Although they probably would sell 30K tickets for a game with Ohio State.

Orange won't take Baylor over Clemson.

Agreed. I suppose I could see the OB passing over Clemson if both Alabama and Ohio State were available to the Orange, but that might be the only plausible no-Clemson scenario (other than FSU losing a game).