(11-06-2013 11:10 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 10:30 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 09:39 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 07:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm not as sold on Nova, St John's, and now especially Providence as some are. I think Buzz can coach quite well.

It's not just you, bit everyone seems to be picking Marquette because of Buzz. I don't understand when he became the 2nd coming of John Wooden. There's a lot of love for Buzz after the Elite 8, but Marquette didn't look so good when they went one and done in the Big East tournament after tying for the regular season title.

You know Marquette lost it's two best players before last season right? Everyone said they would fall off and didn't. It's the same story every year. "Marquette lost so and so, they wont be as good." Then they go and win the league or finish in the top 3.

So, the fact that they overcame significant losses last year means they'll automatically do the same this year? Is there some kind of magic in simply putting on the Marquette uniform?

The fact is that they have significantly more rebuilding to do than teams like Georgetown, Villanova, Creighton, St. John's, and Providence. Maybe they'll repeat what they did a year ago, maybe they won't. But until they do, this new group hasn't proven anything

It's not just last year, but almost every year since Buzz has been there. They have been a consistent top team in the old Big East.

Melky I think compared to Marquette-
Georgetown had a few losses of their own. May have stuff replacing them- but it's still an adjustment
Creighton has the adjustment of the tougher conference. Like it or not- it's an adjustment.
Villanova has been 38-44 last 82 games. I can see them improving but lets see Nova put an entire year together here before we say they're back
St Johns/Providence- let's see these 2 actually put it together for once. Providence has some red flags now that weren't there a week ago.

Marquette has done it year in year out with Williams. He's had 1 year where they were a 11 seed, the other 4 years he's been there they were no worse than a 6 seed. The last 3 years with Tom Crean- 6,8,7 seed. That's a track record of 8 years now with 7 being at least a 8 seed. Probably in the Big East, Marquette the last 8 years most consistent of any of the C7 for sure- and maybe 2nd to only Louisville in terms of consistency.

(11-06-2013 11:52 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 11:10 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 10:30 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 09:39 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-06-2013 07:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm not as sold on Nova, St John's, and now especially Providence as some are. I think Buzz can coach quite well.

It's not just you, bit everyone seems to be picking Marquette because of Buzz. I don't understand when he became the 2nd coming of John Wooden. There's a lot of love for Buzz after the Elite 8, but Marquette didn't look so good when they went one and done in the Big East tournament after tying for the regular season title.

You know Marquette lost it's two best players before last season right? Everyone said they would fall off and didn't. It's the same story every year. "Marquette lost so and so, they wont be as good." Then they go and win the league or finish in the top 3.

So, the fact that they overcame significant losses last year means they'll automatically do the same this year? Is there some kind of magic in simply putting on the Marquette uniform?

The fact is that they have significantly more rebuilding to do than teams like Georgetown, Villanova, Creighton, St. John's, and Providence. Maybe they'll repeat what they did a year ago, maybe they won't. But until they do, this new group hasn't proven anything

It's not just last year, but almost every year since Buzz has been there. They have been a consistent top team in the old Big East.

No one would deny that. But they also have significant rebuilding to do, which creates uncertainties. And Buzz is not the only good coach in the Big East. The fact that he's had a good run doesn't mean he'll never have a down year. Almost every coach does - especially when he doesn't have an overwhelming talent advantage, which Marquette most certainly does not have.

As for Marquette being a consistent top team in the Big East, not at tournament time. Not only have they not won a tournament championship in Buzz's tenure, but they've won a total of only 4 tournament games in his 5 years and have been one and done each of the past 2 years despite having a high seed each time. Not really a candidate to win the championship with that kind of track record.

Regardless of how good the coaching is, the coaches don't play the games. The kids do. Coaches coach. Kids respond. We have no idea how this group of kids will respond because there have been significant changes.

I think one thing that is going to be interesting to watch this year is how some teams even in the C7 don't know each other that great...

Georgetown for instance last 5 years-
vs DePaul 5 games
vs Providence 6 games
vs Seton Hall 5 games
vs Villanova 6 games

St John's and Marquette in that period 9 games

St John's/Providence- 5 games
St John's/Villanova- 6 games(and that only because of the tourney game this year)

(11-07-2013 12:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Melky I think compared to Marquette-
Georgetown had a few losses of their own. May have stuff replacing them- but it's still an adjustment
Creighton has the adjustment of the tougher conference. Like it or not- it's an adjustment.
Villanova has been 38-44 last 82 games. I can see them improving but lets see Nova put an entire year together here before we say they're back
St Johns/Providence- let's see these 2 actually put it together for once. Providence has some red flags now that weren't there a week ago.

Marquette has done it year in year out with Williams. He's had 1 year where they were a 11 seed, the other 4 years he's been there they were no worse than a 6 seed. The last 3 years with Tom Crean- 6,8,7 seed. That's a track record of 8 years now with 7 being at least a 8 seed. Probably in the Big East, Marquette the last 8 years most consistent of any of the C7 for sure- and maybe 2nd to only Louisville in terms of consistency.

Georgetown has had one loss from last year's starting team that tied for the Big East regular season title. As significant as he was, he's the only player from last year's Big East regular season co-champs who won't be back. That's not a few losses; it's one. Georgetown has been 49-16 over the past 2 years. Marquette has been 53-17. One is replacing several key pieces; the other is bringing back almost everyone and should just be getting better.

I agree that Creighton is facing an adjustment to a new, tougher conference, which is why I picked them 3rd. Otherwise, I would have picked them higher. Despite the adjustment, you picked the #2. So why the disagreement?

I'm not sure what the relevance of what Villanova did 2 years is to what they'll do this year. 3 of the starters and the 7th man from that team are all gone. The rest are 2 years older and are now veteran upper classmen. We should be seeing better things from them this year. Last year, they improved by 7 games over what they did 2 years ago. They won 10 games in a very tough Big East, only 4 fewer than Marquette. And they did it while featuring 3 freshmen & sophomores in their starting lineup. In addition, they've added form 4-star recruits over the past 2 years. I think it's reasonable to think that they'll take another step forward this year and equally reasonable to think that Marquette will take a step back. In the process, I see Villanova passing Marquette. Let's not forget that head-to-head, Villanova beat Marquette last year.

BTW, If we want to see Villanova put a full year together before we say they're back, why don't we wait to see this Marquette team actually so something on the court before we crown them. (Not saying you're doing that.) It's not like this is the same team that went to the Elite 8 last year.

And since when did the Villanova program go away that we have to see it come back? It's the program that has the same coach that took them to the Final Four in 2009, something that Buzz has never done. He's the same coach who took them to 4 Sweet 16's, something that Buzz has done only 3 times. It's the same coach who has gotten them to the Final Four of the Big East tournament 3 times, something that Buzz has done only once. Are we saying that Jay Wright suddenly forgot how to coach in the prime of his coaching career? I hope not. This is college basketball. All programs have their ups and downs. Buzz is simply the latest hot young coach who's having a good run just as plenty of others have done before him.

St. John's & PC haven't done it before? Haven't done what? They're Big East programs that are used to competing at a high level. PC won 9 games last year, same as Cincinnati. They didn't finish at the bottom of the conference. They've been on an upward trajectory for a couple of years and they were an an upward trajectory in the 2nd half of last season. Nine of their losses last year came by 6 points or fewer, 3 in OT. Those are the kinds of losses that young teams suffer when they're still inexperienced but which they turn into wins as they mature. As for red flags, most teams will lose players during the season for some period. Right now, Dunn is day-to-day and the 2 freshmen, who weren't going to decide the outcome of the season anyway, are still practicing with the team. The disciplinary action is an indication that they are still adjusting to life at the college level. They will be back.

St. John's was on pace to finish the season even stronger than Providence did until the unfortunate suspension of Harrison. Still, they won 8 Big East games, including wins over Notre Dame, UConn, & Cincinnati.

I'm not sure why you're criticizing my picks when they're almost identical to yours with the lone exception of Marquette. That's the only one over which we have any significant disagreement. Given all your reservations about these teams, why did you pick them where you did? For example, why Georgetown as #1 if you're concerned about any losses they've experienced?

Stever,
Villanova made the NCAAs last year and everyone returns except for 1 guy.
Repeating the 38-44 thing is about as relevant as saying the Red Sox will struggle in 2014 because in the last 2 years plus Sept 2011 they are under .500.

Also,
Two things that you've decided to repeat continuously because no one has called you out on them yet (I'm afraid if I don't mention these then you'll continue to repeat them).
1. Misleading Statement #1: The Villanova 38-44 thing. NCAA team last year, plus all but 1 player returns. Red Sox are under .500 over their last 2 years plus 1 month.
2. Misleading Statement #2: Providence is now in trouble because of how the new foul rules will affect their depth, even though this applies to every team, plus PC has more depth this year, plus I've described times where Cooley has won or succeeded while using 5 guys and a walk-on, plus BC has less depth if Hanlan were to get in foul trouble.
3. Bonus Misleading Statement: To fit your narrative that PC is screwed because of depth and the Austin suspension, you cherry-picked and found some good numbers for Dunn through his 1st two games, but failed to mention Dunn's adjustment period from injury and his 7-for-27 shooting thru his first 3 games.

(11-07-2013 07:03 AM)billyjack Wrote:  Stever,
Villanova made the NCAAs last year and everyone returns except for 1 guy.
Repeating the 38-44 thing is about as relevant as saying the Red Sox will struggle in 2014 because in the last 2 years plus Sept 2011 they are under .500.

Also,
Two things that you've decided to repeat continuously because no one has called you out on them yet (I'm afraid if I don't mention these then you'll continue to repeat them).
1. Misleading Statement #1: The Villanova 38-44 thing. NCAA team last year, plus all but 1 player returns. Red Sox are under .500 over their last 2 years plus 1 month.
2. Misleading Statement #2: Providence is now in trouble because of how the new foul rules will affect their depth, even though this applies to every team, plus PC has more depth this year, plus I've described times where Cooley has won or succeeded while using 5 guys and a walk-on, plus BC has less depth if Hanlan were to get in foul trouble.
3. Bonus Misleading Statement: To fit your narrative that PC is screwed because of depth and the Austin suspension, you cherry-picked and found some good numbers for Dunn through his 1st two games, but failed to mention Dunn's adjustment period from injury and his 7-for-27 shooting thru his first 3 games.

1- If Villanova has the same season this year as last, they won't make the tourney. They only made it because they beat Louisville and Syracuse. If they have the same record this year- they won't be in. Add into that 3 years ago when they only made the tourney because of the old big east despite a collapse, and 2 years ago when they missed the tourney- I don't have them as a lock at all...

2- Depth will apply to everyone. I don't care about the Cooley winning with 5 guys and a walk-on- that won't happen this year. My point is that can't lose 3 guys this year and not have the depth becoming a major concern.

3- I and most everyone I've seen has Providence being right on the border between making the tourney and not making the tourney. If they have now lost 2 starters for who knows how long, plus a 8th/9th guy- how would that do anything to help them at all. If it doesn't impact them at all, then how good are those players? As far as Dunn, I was trying to show the guy I was debating that you can't just automatically say they're freshmen they don't matter. In terms of shooting, Yeah 1st 2 games he was 5-20. I'll take that when he's giving me 19 assists/6 turnovers and 11 rebounds. He played 56 minutes. I don't care if that's an adjustment from injury(which probably is true by the way), my point is he made an impact right off the bat. To blindly say the suspensions won't matter because the 2 are frosh- that's not the case any more at all.

(11-07-2013 01:34 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 12:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Melky I think compared to Marquette-
Georgetown had a few losses of their own. May have stuff replacing them- but it's still an adjustment
Creighton has the adjustment of the tougher conference. Like it or not- it's an adjustment.
Villanova has been 38-44 last 82 games. I can see them improving but lets see Nova put an entire year together here before we say they're back
St Johns/Providence- let's see these 2 actually put it together for once. Providence has some red flags now that weren't there a week ago.

Marquette has done it year in year out with Williams. He's had 1 year where they were a 11 seed, the other 4 years he's been there they were no worse than a 6 seed. The last 3 years with Tom Crean- 6,8,7 seed. That's a track record of 8 years now with 7 being at least a 8 seed. Probably in the Big East, Marquette the last 8 years most consistent of any of the C7 for sure- and maybe 2nd to only Louisville in terms of consistency.

Georgetown has had one loss from last year's starting team that tied for the Big East regular season title. As significant as he was, he's the only player from last year's Big East regular season co-champs who won't be back. That's not a few losses; it's one. Georgetown has been 49-16 over the past 2 years. Marquette has been 53-17. One is replacing several key pieces; the other is bringing back almost everyone and should just be getting better.

I agree that Creighton is facing an adjustment to a new, tougher conference, which is why I picked them 3rd. Otherwise, I would have picked them higher. Despite the adjustment, you picked the #2. So why the disagreement?

I'm not sure what the relevance of what Villanova did 2 years is to what they'll do this year. 3 of the starters and the 7th man from that team are all gone. The rest are 2 years older and are now veteran upper classmen. We should be seeing better things from them this year. Last year, they improved by 7 games over what they did 2 years ago. They won 10 games in a very tough Big East, only 4 fewer than Marquette. And they did it while featuring 3 freshmen & sophomores in their starting lineup. In addition, they've added form 4-star recruits over the past 2 years. I think it's reasonable to think that they'll take another step forward this year and equally reasonable to think that Marquette will take a step back. In the process, I see Villanova passing Marquette. Let's not forget that head-to-head, Villanova beat Marquette last year.

BTW, If we want to see Villanova put a full year together before we say they're back, why don't we wait to see this Marquette team actually so something on the court before we crown them. (Not saying you're doing that.) It's not like this is the same team that went to the Elite 8 last year.

And since when did the Villanova program go away that we have to see it come back? It's the program that has the same coach that took them to the Final Four in 2009, something that Buzz has never done. He's the same coach who took them to 4 Sweet 16's, something that Buzz has done only 3 times. It's the same coach who has gotten them to the Final Four of the Big East tournament 3 times, something that Buzz has done only once. Are we saying that Jay Wright suddenly forgot how to coach in the prime of his coaching career? I hope not. This is college basketball. All programs have their ups and downs. Buzz is simply the latest hot young coach who's having a good run just as plenty of others have done before him.

St. John's & PC haven't done it before? Haven't done what? They're Big East programs that are used to competing at a high level. PC won 9 games last year, same as Cincinnati. They didn't finish at the bottom of the conference. They've been on an upward trajectory for a couple of years and they were an an upward trajectory in the 2nd half of last season. Nine of their losses last year came by 6 points or fewer, 3 in OT. Those are the kinds of losses that young teams suffer when they're still inexperienced but which they turn into wins as they mature. As for red flags, most teams will lose players during the season for some period. Right now, Dunn is day-to-day and the 2 freshmen, who weren't going to decide the outcome of the season anyway, are still practicing with the team. The disciplinary action is an indication that they are still adjusting to life at the college level. They will be back.

St. John's was on pace to finish the season even stronger than Providence did until the unfortunate suspension of Harrison. Still, they won 8 Big East games, including wins over Notre Dame, UConn, & Cincinnati.

I'm not sure why you're criticizing my picks when they're almost identical to yours with the lone exception of Marquette. That's the only one over which we have any significant disagreement. Given all your reservations about these teams, why did you pick them where you did? For example, why Georgetown as #1 if you're concerned about any losses they've experienced?

Like I said just now- if this was this years Big East last year- w/o the games vs Louisville and Syracuse- Nova doesn't even make the tourney at 20-14.

I can see what Redman picked.
1 Marquette- still Buzz and they have a lot up front coming back
2 Georgetown- reasons you say
3 St John's- a bit of a homer pick I know.
4 Creighton- adjustment to new tougher conference
5 Villanova- a lot of the same reasons I've said.
6 Xavier- I know I think they're a major sleeper
7 Providence- probably the biggest x factor in the conference...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...dence-game

game might go to the walk ons if it's a foul fest- on both sides....

(11-07-2013 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 07:03 AM)billyjack Wrote:  Stever,
Villanova made the NCAAs last year and everyone returns except for 1 guy.
Repeating the 38-44 thing is about as relevant as saying the Red Sox will struggle in 2014 because in the last 2 years plus Sept 2011 they are under .500.

Also,
Two things that you've decided to repeat continuously because no one has called you out on them yet (I'm afraid if I don't mention these then you'll continue to repeat them).
1. Misleading Statement #1: The Villanova 38-44 thing. NCAA team last year, plus all but 1 player returns. Red Sox are under .500 over their last 2 years plus 1 month.
2. Misleading Statement #2: Providence is now in trouble because of how the new foul rules will affect their depth, even though this applies to every team, plus PC has more depth this year, plus I've described times where Cooley has won or succeeded while using 5 guys and a walk-on, plus BC has less depth if Hanlan were to get in foul trouble.
3. Bonus Misleading Statement: To fit your narrative that PC is screwed because of depth and the Austin suspension, you cherry-picked and found some good numbers for Dunn through his 1st two games, but failed to mention Dunn's adjustment period from injury and his 7-for-27 shooting thru his first 3 games.

1- If Villanova has the same season this year as last, they won't make the tourney. They only made it because they beat Louisville and Syracuse. If they have the same record this year- they won't be in. Add into that 3 years ago when they only made the tourney because of the old big east despite a collapse, and 2 years ago when they missed the tourney- I don't have them as a lock at all...

2- Depth will apply to everyone. I don't care about the Cooley winning with 5 guys and a walk-on- that won't happen this year. My point is that can't lose 3 guys this year and not have the depth becoming a major concern.

3- I and most everyone I've seen has Providence being right on the border between making the tourney and not making the tourney. If they have now lost 2 starters for who knows how long, plus a 8th/9th guy- how would that do anything to help them at all. If it doesn't impact them at all, then how good are those players? As far as Dunn, I was trying to show the guy I was debating that you can't just automatically say they're freshmen they don't matter. In terms of shooting, Yeah 1st 2 games he was 5-20. I'll take that when he's giving me 19 assists/6 turnovers and 11 rebounds. He played 56 minutes. I don't care if that's an adjustment from injury(which probably is true by the way), my point is he made an impact right off the bat. To blindly say the suspensions won't matter because the 2 are frosh- that's not the case any more at all.

1. Steve, if Villanova has the same season they had a year ago, it will be an enormous disappointment. 4 of their first 7 players last year were either freshmen of sophomores & there was only one senior. that's a pretty young team; there is every expectation that the additional experience will only make them better. In addition, they just improved their talent base by adding two 4-star recruits and a 3-star, making them better still. I have no idea why you'd try to explain away bids that they legitimately earned. Either they were in or they weren't.

2. You're anticipating that the foul calls will make an enormous difference. They may, but until the games are played, we really don't know. And even if there is a difference, we don't know how quickly teams will adjust. It may take them a month or it may take them all season. You're treating this issue as if we're dealing with an established fact.

3. Two PC starters? Dunn is the only starter who's questionable and he's day to day. The most important fact about the freshmen suspensions is that they will continue to practice. so, when they are reinstated, there shouldn't be a long lag time for them to become integrated. Since the suspensions are "indefinite", they could be back tomorrow. We can't simply assume that they'll be out a long time. We just don't know.

(11-07-2013 04:01 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 07:03 AM)billyjack Wrote:  Stever,
Villanova made the NCAAs last year and everyone returns except for 1 guy.
Repeating the 38-44 thing is about as relevant as saying the Red Sox will struggle in 2014 because in the last 2 years plus Sept 2011 they are under .500.

Also,
Two things that you've decided to repeat continuously because no one has called you out on them yet (I'm afraid if I don't mention these then you'll continue to repeat them).
1. Misleading Statement #1: The Villanova 38-44 thing. NCAA team last year, plus all but 1 player returns. Red Sox are under .500 over their last 2 years plus 1 month.
2. Misleading Statement #2: Providence is now in trouble because of how the new foul rules will affect their depth, even though this applies to every team, plus PC has more depth this year, plus I've described times where Cooley has won or succeeded while using 5 guys and a walk-on, plus BC has less depth if Hanlan were to get in foul trouble.
3. Bonus Misleading Statement: To fit your narrative that PC is screwed because of depth and the Austin suspension, you cherry-picked and found some good numbers for Dunn through his 1st two games, but failed to mention Dunn's adjustment period from injury and his 7-for-27 shooting thru his first 3 games.

1- If Villanova has the same season this year as last, they won't make the tourney. They only made it because they beat Louisville and Syracuse. If they have the same record this year- they won't be in. Add into that 3 years ago when they only made the tourney because of the old big east despite a collapse, and 2 years ago when they missed the tourney- I don't have them as a lock at all...

2- Depth will apply to everyone. I don't care about the Cooley winning with 5 guys and a walk-on- that won't happen this year. My point is that can't lose 3 guys this year and not have the depth becoming a major concern.

3- I and most everyone I've seen has Providence being right on the border between making the tourney and not making the tourney. If they have now lost 2 starters for who knows how long, plus a 8th/9th guy- how would that do anything to help them at all. If it doesn't impact them at all, then how good are those players? As far as Dunn, I was trying to show the guy I was debating that you can't just automatically say they're freshmen they don't matter. In terms of shooting, Yeah 1st 2 games he was 5-20. I'll take that when he's giving me 19 assists/6 turnovers and 11 rebounds. He played 56 minutes. I don't care if that's an adjustment from injury(which probably is true by the way), my point is he made an impact right off the bat. To blindly say the suspensions won't matter because the 2 are frosh- that's not the case any more at all.

1. Steve, if Villanova has the same season they had a year ago, it will be an enormous disappointment. 4 of their first 7 players last year were either freshmen of sophomores & there was only one senior. that's a pretty young team; there is every expectation that the additional experience will only make them better. In addition, they just improved their talent base by adding two 4-star recruits and a 3-star, making them better still. I have no idea why you'd try to explain away bids that they legitimately earned. Either they were in or they weren't.

2. You're anticipating that the foul calls will make an enormous difference. They may, but until the games are played, we really don't know. And even if there is a difference, we don't know how quickly teams will adjust. It may take them a month or it may take them all season. You're treating this issue as if we're dealing with an established fact.

3. Two PC starters? Dunn is the only starter who's questionable and he's day to day. The most important fact about the freshmen suspensions is that they will continue to practice. so, when they are reinstated, there shouldn't be a long lag time for them to become integrated. Since the suspensions are "indefinite", they could be back tomorrow. We can't simply assume that they'll be out a long time. We just don't know.

1- Villanova- (of course after I did that, saw the piece about them being one of the schools helped by the new rules)- end of the day last year they were 20-14. That's mediocre in this day and age. They haven't been the sweet 16 Villanova in about 4 years. I don't see how everyone thinks they're just automatic to return to glory.

2- the fouls- I don't think there's any doubt that the games are going to be different. It's a rules change/ not a point of emphasis. That's just huge. Now, to what degree it'll be different, who knows.

3- I looked at the Providence scrimmage box score and Dunn and Austin were starters. While I guess Austin may not have started in 1st game, it's a lot more likely he would. It would be pretty surprising if the 2 frosh aren't suspended tomorrow.

And- I don't think the suspensions will be long term, just they could have an impact tomorrow(love that by the way, 25 hours to go now!) if Dunn is out injured along with them.

(11-07-2013 04:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 04:01 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2013 07:03 AM)billyjack Wrote:  Stever,
Villanova made the NCAAs last year and everyone returns except for 1 guy.
Repeating the 38-44 thing is about as relevant as saying the Red Sox will struggle in 2014 because in the last 2 years plus Sept 2011 they are under .500.

Also,
Two things that you've decided to repeat continuously because no one has called you out on them yet (I'm afraid if I don't mention these then you'll continue to repeat them).
1. Misleading Statement #1: The Villanova 38-44 thing. NCAA team last year, plus all but 1 player returns. Red Sox are under .500 over their last 2 years plus 1 month.
2. Misleading Statement #2: Providence is now in trouble because of how the new foul rules will affect their depth, even though this applies to every team, plus PC has more depth this year, plus I've described times where Cooley has won or succeeded while using 5 guys and a walk-on, plus BC has less depth if Hanlan were to get in foul trouble.
3. Bonus Misleading Statement: To fit your narrative that PC is screwed because of depth and the Austin suspension, you cherry-picked and found some good numbers for Dunn through his 1st two games, but failed to mention Dunn's adjustment period from injury and his 7-for-27 shooting thru his first 3 games.

1- If Villanova has the same season this year as last, they won't make the tourney. They only made it because they beat Louisville and Syracuse. If they have the same record this year- they won't be in. Add into that 3 years ago when they only made the tourney because of the old big east despite a collapse, and 2 years ago when they missed the tourney- I don't have them as a lock at all...

2- Depth will apply to everyone. I don't care about the Cooley winning with 5 guys and a walk-on- that won't happen this year. My point is that can't lose 3 guys this year and not have the depth becoming a major concern.

3- I and most everyone I've seen has Providence being right on the border between making the tourney and not making the tourney. If they have now lost 2 starters for who knows how long, plus a 8th/9th guy- how would that do anything to help them at all. If it doesn't impact them at all, then how good are those players? As far as Dunn, I was trying to show the guy I was debating that you can't just automatically say they're freshmen they don't matter. In terms of shooting, Yeah 1st 2 games he was 5-20. I'll take that when he's giving me 19 assists/6 turnovers and 11 rebounds. He played 56 minutes. I don't care if that's an adjustment from injury(which probably is true by the way), my point is he made an impact right off the bat. To blindly say the suspensions won't matter because the 2 are frosh- that's not the case any more at all.

1. Steve, if Villanova has the same season they had a year ago, it will be an enormous disappointment. 4 of their first 7 players last year were either freshmen of sophomores & there was only one senior. that's a pretty young team; there is every expectation that the additional experience will only make them better. In addition, they just improved their talent base by adding two 4-star recruits and a 3-star, making them better still. I have no idea why you'd try to explain away bids that they legitimately earned. Either they were in or they weren't.

2. You're anticipating that the foul calls will make an enormous difference. They may, but until the games are played, we really don't know. And even if there is a difference, we don't know how quickly teams will adjust. It may take them a month or it may take them all season. You're treating this issue as if we're dealing with an established fact.

3. Two PC starters? Dunn is the only starter who's questionable and he's day to day. The most important fact about the freshmen suspensions is that they will continue to practice. so, when they are reinstated, there shouldn't be a long lag time for them to become integrated. Since the suspensions are "indefinite", they could be back tomorrow. We can't simply assume that they'll be out a long time. We just don't know.

1- Villanova- (of course after I did that, saw the piece about them being one of the schools helped by the new rules)- end of the day last year they were 20-14. That's mediocre in this day and age. They haven't been the sweet 16 Villanova in about 4 years. I don't see how everyone thinks they're just automatic to return to glory.

2- the fouls- I don't think there's any doubt that the games are going to be different. It's a rules change/ not a point of emphasis. That's just huge. Now, to what degree it'll be different, who knows.

3- I looked at the Providence scrimmage box score and Dunn and Austin were starters. While I guess Austin may not have started in 1st game, it's a lot more likely he would. It would be pretty surprising if the 2 frosh aren't suspended tomorrow.

1. 9 of those 14 losses came against Big East opponents and the 10th came in the NCAA tournament. There were only 4 losses against everyone else. 20-14 may be mediocre within the Big East, but when a team plays in the Big East, 20-14 is not mediocre with respect to the rest of college basketball. Villanova's SOS was 22nd last year. Give them a different SOS more like very one else and the win/loss record changes. The committee knew that, which is why they picked them for the tournament. Villanova's up side was demonstrated with wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, & Georgetown!

2. Yes, the games will change, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there will be more fouls. The rule makers certainly hope not. It's all a matter of how quickly the coaches and players adjust.

3. From what I've read, Austin has not been projected as a starter. Maybe things have changed. But many coaches play a different lineup in exhibition games than they anticipate playing during the real season because they want to get a look at players under different circumstances and experiment with different combinations. Exhibition games provide the only competitive opportunity to do that without paying a price for it. UConn played freshman guard Terrence Samuel for 27 minutes and Shabazz Napier for 12 in one of their exhibitions. No way do they plan to do that in the regular season.

BTW, Steve, I love your style. Really enjoy the exchanges. Yes, great anticipation here too for the start of the season.

It was 14 Napier/28 for Samuel. However, even with that, Napier started. Part of the minutes I'm sure was it was 42-18 at halftime, and absolutely no reason to get napier injured...

My point on Nova(or any team like them) that goes 20-14 in the new big east- probably won't make the tourney. Louisville and Syracuse were 3/5.

I think the OOC schedule will be very interesting with the fouls. It's going to be huge in a game for instance with Vandy/Providence in the exempt tourney where a win and you get a lot better 2nd/3rd games. It'll be interesting to see if more zone is played.

One of Villanova's losses last year was at Seton Hall, where they had a big lead late, but the Hall was aided by a bogus-European-soccer-dive by Tommy Maayan... by your way of thinking, that should be a win. Also, you can't wave away their wins vs 2 Final Four teams-- what is that about?

Austin is not yet a starter. You're trying on the fly, and with cherry-picking, to figure out a way to back up your positions in reverse, in a Rube Goldberg manner. Now that I've told you that Austin isn't a starter, the probabilty is that you'll now search for yet another excuse to downgrade the Friars.

PC's lineup is supposed to be 1-Dunn, 2-Cotton, 3-Harris, 4-Henton, 5-Batts.
Dunn is hurt, so the expected starting replacement is either Fortune or Austin. Cotton would share PG duties with either of them.

What I'm saying about Nova is this year, they wouldn't have the chance to play those final 4 teams. Those wins were the only reason they got into the tourney. If the BE had been this year's version last year, and Nova goes 10-8- they don't make the tourney.

I was just going off the scrimmage where he did start. looking at ESPN they had the starting lineup projected as Dunn/Cotton/Fortune/Henton/Batts. Still Austin I'm assuming is 6th/7th man. They didn't even mention Harris by the way....

Providence one way or the other will be close to the tourney. They'll be that bubble team everyone talks about a lot in late Feb/early Mar.

Yeah, ESPN and others got that wrong about Fortune. Fortune will be a solid, important piece for us, and will hopefully rain 3's tomorrow night... he can hit them from NBA-3 territory. Josh is one of the keys to the game-- he's another possible path to victory tomorrow.