There is a lot of discussion about the new order of college football among the G5 but the big question I see is not who is in the conference now but who is going to be there 5-10 years down the road when the next P5 strike happens.

Scenario: The B12 feels like it has to be at 14 teams to keep up with the SEC and B1G. It then adds from the AAC (UC, Memphis, Tulane) and Colorado State from the MWC. I'm not saying these additions are sure to happen but lets make it a scenario.

MWC
West: Fresno St, San Diego St, UNLV, Nevada, Boise St, San Jose St, Hawaii
Mountain: Utah State, Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, UTEP, SMU, Houston

The AAC takes a big hit so the MWC sees the opportunity to go big into Texas with 14 teams all at once.

Then some horse trading occurs between CUSA and the AAC

CUSA (adds Tulsa)-AAC down to 6
AAC (adds Army, UMass, UNCC, Marshall, Georgia St, ODU)-CUSA down to 11
CUSA (adds Ark St)-SBC down to 9

The net effect is an eastern seaboard alignment with the AAC while CUSA moves more toward a southwest lineup.

AAC
North: UMass, UConn, Army, Temple, Navy, USF
South: Marshall, ODU, ECU, Charlotte, Georgia St, UCF

CUSA
West: UTSA, UNT, Rice, Tulsa, La Tech, Arkansas State
East: Southern Miss, UAB, WKU, MTSU, FIU, FAU

The divisions now look a lot neater for the AAC/CUSA groups than before and both at a nice 12 teams.

SBC
West: Idaho, New Mexico St, Montana, Montana St, NDSU, Texas St
East: ULM, ULL, South Alabama, Troy, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State

The SBC builds out an entire western division for football while New Mexico State comes in for all sports. Montana schools and NDSU all join the WAC for other sports.

MAC
East: Akron, Kent, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami, Bowling Green
Wet: NIU, Ball State, Toledo, CMU, EMU, WMU

The same little regional conference as before. They will actually prove to be ahead of their time while the AAC/CUSA/SBC move to regionalism.

And if the Big XII finds out that 10 is the perfect number, what then?

(10-11-2013 07:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  And if the Big XII finds out that 10 is the perfect number, what then?

Then everything I described above is thrown into motion by the ACC taking in Cincinnati and Memphis.......

What you can see is that from the AAC, Cincinnati is the #1 draft pick for both the B12 and ACC........in a big state, has tradition, commitment ect. That is right in the middle of the AAC.

Losing Cincinnati automatically casts the AAC's viability into doubt for the remaining western teams. Houston and SMU have a potential way out with the MWC. Tulsa really doesn't and will have to tuck its tail and head back to CUSA. Tulane I don't know the answer there.......depends on the scenario.

(10-11-2013 07:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  There is a lot of discussion about the new order of college football among the G5 but the big question I see is not who is in the conference now but who is going to be there 5-10 years down the road when the next P5 strike happens.



SBC
West: Idaho, New Mexico St, Montana, Montana St, NDSU, Texas St
East: ULM, ULL, South Alabama, Troy, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State

The SBC builds out an entire western division for football while New Mexico State comes in for all sports. Montana schools and NDSU all join the WAC for other sports.

MAC
East: Akron, Kent, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami, Bowling Green
Wet: NIU, Ball State, Toledo, CMU, EMU, WMU

The same little regional conference as before. They will actually prove to be ahead of their time while the AAC/CUSA/SBC move to regionalism.

The Big Sky will want to be a part of that. Montana, Montana St, and Idaho will not join a Sun Belt for all sports. Portland St, Sac St, Cal Poly, UCDavis will want to be part of western division. The Sun Belt will be content with JMU, Liberty, Jacksonville St, EKU, and whoever else they can get.

Memphis to the ACC? .., I dont see that EVER happening

Do you see BYU in a p5 conference, or are they independent for the long haul? I'm also assuming Hawaii remains a football-only member with everything else in the Big West.

(10-11-2013 08:01 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  Memphis to the ACC? .., I dont see that EVER happening

I'll admit, it was a stretch.

If Memphis can fill up the Liberty Bowl with a quality team though all things are possible. Depends what UConn does too and the ability to get WVU to leave the B12 with the GoR in place.

(10-11-2013 07:57 PM)NoDak Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 07:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  There is a lot of discussion about the new order of college football among the G5 but the big question I see is not who is in the conference now but who is going to be there 5-10 years down the road when the next P5 strike happens.



SBC
West: Idaho, New Mexico St, Montana, Montana St, NDSU, Texas St
East: ULM, ULL, South Alabama, Troy, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State

The SBC builds out an entire western division for football while New Mexico State comes in for all sports. Montana schools and NDSU all join the WAC for other sports.

MAC
East: Akron, Kent, Buffalo, Ohio, Miami, Bowling Green
Wet: NIU, Ball State, Toledo, CMU, EMU, WMU

The same little regional conference as before. They will actually prove to be ahead of their time while the AAC/CUSA/SBC move to regionalism.

The Big Sky will want to be a part of that. Montana, Montana St, and Idaho will not join a Sun Belt for all sports. Portland St, Sac St, Cal Poly, UCDavis will want to be part of western division. The Sun Belt will be content with JMU, Liberty, Jacksonville St, EKU, and whoever else they can get.

A second western FBS league is possible in the long term but I'm only forecasting out to 2020 and the next round of moves.

In the mid term the Montana schools would likely have to accept a SBC/WAC hybrid situation. The TV deal in the SBC with strong representation in 3 time zones (Mountain, Central and Eastern) would bring a lot more value than a western group alone. It makes it easier to sustain 12 members for the SBC and hold that championship game.

I'm of the opinion that the SBC should start looking west at the Dakota's and Montana's where you've got schools that have ready to go G5 level facilities instead of gambling on OVC teams.

I'm going to presume that the G5 still have no incentive to go beyond 12 since the CFP payment distributions are defined through 2025, and the first group of funds is $1 million per school to a maximum of $12 million per conference.

Mountain West - loses Colorado State (XII), adds New Mexico State (SBC/WAC)
Pacific - Hawaii (football only), San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain - Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, New Mexico State

American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Conference USA - Loses Middle Tennesse, Western Kentucky (AAC); Stays at 12
Western - UTEP, UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
Eastern - Marshall, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, UAB

Mid-American - Loses UMass (AAC); Stays at 12
Western - Northern Illinois, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo
Eastern - Buffalo, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami-OH, Bowling Green

Sun Belt - loses NMSU (MWC); adds James Madison (CAA), Missouri State (football only, MVFC)
Western - Idaho (football only), Texas State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri State (football only)
Eastern - South Alabama, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, App State, James Madison

Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington work out a deal with the Missouri Valley Football Conference to play FCS football there and be first in line should the Sun Belt suffer any more losses.

Notre Dame, BYU, and Army remain FBS Independents.

(10-11-2013 08:21 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Do you really think the AAC has WKU/MTSU on its short list? I think not...

I think the biggest mistake the AAC made was trying to push on for 12 football members. Tulsa, ECU and Tulane really bring things down in basketball (though Tulsa has some winning). Had they gone with UAB and stopped at 10 it would have been better for the league, IMO.

Connecticut
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston
SMU
UAB
South Florida
Central Florida

Less mouths to feed in basketball and 3 really good teams make it a 5 NCAA bid conference, IMO.

(10-11-2013 09:01 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 08:21 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Do you really think the AAC has WKU/MTSU on its short list? I think not...

I think the biggest mistake the AAC made was trying to push on for 12 football members. Tulsa, ECU and Tulane really bring things down in basketball (though Tulsa has some winning). Had they gone with UAB and stopped at 10 it would have been better for the league, IMO.

Connecticut
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston
SMU
UAB
South Florida
Central Florida

Less mouths to feed in basketball and 3 really good teams make it a 5 NCAA bid conference, IMO.

...I could definitely live with this... BBall would be a nice setup... altho, with Charlotte / ODU / WKU coming in, the 'actual' CUSA is gonna be a good bit more balanced in BBall... it's just nice to see UAB being kicked around at all in a realignment scenario.

(10-11-2013 10:07 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 09:01 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 08:21 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Do you really think the AAC has WKU/MTSU on its short list? I think not...

I think the biggest mistake the AAC made was trying to push on for 12 football members. Tulsa, ECU and Tulane really bring things down in basketball (though Tulsa has some winning). Had they gone with UAB and stopped at 10 it would have been better for the league, IMO.

Connecticut
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston
SMU
UAB
South Florida
Central Florida

Less mouths to feed in basketball and 3 really good teams make it a 5 NCAA bid conference, IMO.

...I could definitely live with this... BBall would be a nice setup... altho, with Charlotte / ODU / WKU coming in, the 'actual' CUSA is gonna be a good bit more balanced in BBall... it's just nice to see UAB being kicked around at all in a realignment scenario.

The AAC has that bowl game in Birmingham so I'm surprised they were not given more consideration.

(10-11-2013 10:14 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 10:07 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 09:01 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 08:21 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Do you really think the AAC has WKU/MTSU on its short list? I think not...

I think the biggest mistake the AAC made was trying to push on for 12 football members. Tulsa, ECU and Tulane really bring things down in basketball (though Tulsa has some winning). Had they gone with UAB and stopped at 10 it would have been better for the league, IMO.

Connecticut
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
Memphis
Houston
SMU
UAB
South Florida
Central Florida

Less mouths to feed in basketball and 3 really good teams make it a 5 NCAA bid conference, IMO.

...I could definitely live with this... BBall would be a nice setup... altho, with Charlotte / ODU / WKU coming in, the 'actual' CUSA is gonna be a good bit more balanced in BBall... it's just nice to see UAB being kicked around at all in a realignment scenario.

The AAC has that bowl game in Birmingham so I'm surprised they were not given more consideration.

...well, not that WE are gonna be in any bowls anytime soon... but who knows...if the BOT would just leave us be, let us build a 30,000 seat OCS, I think we could at least have enough of a program to be in the 'G5' mix, along with a solid BBall program... currently, we are being slowly driven into oblivion by the 'man'... ...as for the bowl here, it was pretty cool to see all the Ole Miss folks show up last year... what's a kick in the head about that for UAB was that we had a regular season home game set up with Ole Miss - i think it was supposed to be last year - but they 'bought it out'... would have been a nice 'boost' to our attendance average...

(10-11-2013 08:21 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I'm going to presume that the G5 still have no incentive to go beyond 12 since the CFP payment distributions are defined through 2025, and the first group of funds is $1 million per school to a maximum of $12 million per conference.

Mountain West - loses Colorado State (XII), adds New Mexico State (SBC/WAC)
Pacific - Hawaii (football only), San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV
Mountain - Boise State, Utah State, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, New Mexico State

American - loses Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane (XII); adds UMass (football only, MAC), Middle Tennessee (CUSA), Western Kentucky (CUSA)
Western - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Middle Tennessee
Eastern - UMass, UConn, South Florida, Central Florida Navy, Temple

Conference USA - Loses Middle Tennesse, Western Kentucky (AAC); Stays at 12
Western - UTEP, UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
Eastern - Marshall, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, UAB

Mid-American - Loses UMass (AAC); Stays at 12
Western - Northern Illinois, Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo
Eastern - Buffalo, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami-OH, Bowling Green

Sun Belt - loses NMSU (MWC); adds James Madison (CAA), Missouri State (football only, MVFC)
Western - Idaho (football only), Texas State, Arkansas State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri State (football only)
Eastern - South Alabama, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, App State, James Madison

Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington work out a deal with the Missouri Valley Football Conference to play FCS football there and be first in line should the Sun Belt suffer any more losses.

Notre Dame, BYU, and Army remain FBS Independents.

I know UALR football is a popular topic amongst people who don't understand the political climate in Arkansas, but the University of Arkansas would have to agree for UALR to field a football program, and that will never happen.

Memphis in the Big 12 is laughable. Same for Colorado State. Texas would never go along with that.

...sometimes I wonder how we 'flew under the radar' and got to Div I level without UAT putting the kibosh on it... if we were wanting to start a fball program from scratch today...it would most likely never happen...

(10-11-2013 08:03 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  Do you see BYU in a p5 conference, or are they independent for the long haul? I'm also assuming Hawaii remains a football-only member with everything else in the Big West.

I think BYU is not as automatic P5 material as some people assume with that 65,000 seat stadium.

The best scenario for BYU would have been a Mountain West that became a contract bowl but that never happened obviously.

I wonder if BYU had not jumped the shark by becoming independent and played a more formative role in the new MWC if they would have been better off....now they are kind of in no man's land...not G5 or P5.

(10-11-2013 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Memphis in the Big 12 is laughable. Same for Colorado State. Texas would never go along with that.

Is Texas staying long term in the B12.....we don't know for sure.

Could the B12 budge on 10 members with the new AD in Texas (change of heart)? I could seriously see reconsideration in 5 years after the shortcomings of 10 FB members in the new post season environment are exposed.

(10-11-2013 11:03 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Memphis in the Big 12 is laughable. Same for Colorado State. Texas would never go along with that.

Is Texas staying long term in the B12.....we don't know for sure.

Could the B12 budge on 10 members with the new AD in Texas (change of heart)? I could seriously see reconsideration in 5 years after the shortcomings of 10 FB members in the new post season environment are exposed.

Texas likes to talk about leaving, but they wont leave in the end.

(10-11-2013 07:31 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-11-2013 07:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  And if the Big XII finds out that 10 is the perfect number, what then?

Then everything I described above is thrown into motion by the ACC taking in Cincinnati and Memphis.......
.

The ACC will never add Memphis.