Only 3 teams left with zero or one loss in the G5 Conferences/Independents.
2 of them are in the MAC!

Contenders:
NIU 8-0
Fresno 7-0
Ball State 8-1

Dropped out of the running:
BGSU 5-2
Ohio 4-2
ECU 4-2
Texas State 3-3
Navy 3-2



After BGSU, Navy and Ohio losses
And we're down to 3 left - 2 MAC, 1 MWC

TxSt lost today, dropped to 3-2.

NIU and Fresno only ones that have a chance.

(10-06-2013 01:12 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  NIU and Fresno only ones that have a chance.

In the AP Poll Fresno State is #21 this week and NIU is #23.

No other schools from the MWC, CUSA, MAC or SBC even have 1 vote.

Top AQ teams:

SEC (Alabama #1)
PAC (Oregon #2)
ACC (Clemson #3)
B1G (Ohio State #4)
AAC (Louisville #8)
B12 (Oklahoma #12)

All the AQ conferences have teams rated in the Top 12. If Louisville takes a couple of losses and the B12 beats itself up in conference play then it might open the door for a 1 loss non-AQ team.

Even if they are rated high enough, NIU and Fresno State will be required to win their conference championship games to make a BCS bowl. Fresno could finish in the Top 12 with a loss in the conference championship game and be ineligible.

(10-06-2013 01:12 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  NIU and Fresno only ones that have a chance.

NIU will have to start blowing teams out, especially bad MAC teams to move up. Struggle and NIU will drop, just like Michigan did after struggling with Akron and UCONN.

Toledo has the ability to beat both Navy and NIU. Unfortunately, Campbell has so far proved unable to guide Toledo to victory v top quality teams. The coaching staff needs to step up and actually put some surprises into the offense for Toledo to achieve wins in important games. Fluellen in the wildcat is not the "secret weapon" that will beat the big boys.

I dunno, I think NIU might trip up in conference play pretty quickly. I'd be cautious if I were NIU.

Sagarin Ratings 10/5

MAC
51. Northern Illinois (5-0)
63. Ball State (5-1)
67. Bowling Green (5-1)
70. Toledo (3-3)
71. Ohio (4-1)
88. Buffalo (3-2)

MWC
37. Boise State (3-2)
38. Utah State (3-3)
58. Fresno State (5-0)
75. Wyoming (3-2)
87. San Jose Sate (2-3)
93. Nevada (3-3)

CUSA
55. East Carolina (4-1)
57. Marshall (3-2)
76. Rice (3-2)
84. North Texas (2-3)
97. Florida Atlantic (2-4)


-East Carolina has a weaker conference to work through with CUSA but is technically still in the running with only 1 loss. They should be leapfrogged by a 1 loss MAC or MWC team.

-Northern Illinois is the highest rated 1 or 0 loss team remaining. Additionally they have the toughest remaining schedule with Ball State, Toledo and the MAC Championship.

-I would expect the MWC's Sagarin ratings to drop off as the season progresses. Utah State and Boise look out of place at this point.

Didn't Utah State lose Keeton for the year?

Actually now it appears with 4 of the 6 computers released late this afternoon, Fresno is the non-AQ leader.

1 Alabama (55) 6-0 1495 (SEC)
2 Oregon (5) 6-0 1438 (PAC-12)
3 Clemson 6-0 1352 (ACC)
4 Ohio State 6-0 1330 (Big 10)
5 Florida State 5-0 1242
6 LSU 6-1 1137
7 Texas A&M 5-1 1105
8 Louisville 6-0 1077 (Big East/AAC)
9 UCLA 5-0 1017
10 Miami (FL) 5-0 912
11 South Carolina 5-1 896
12 Baylor 5-0 849 (Big 12)
13 Stanford 5-1 824
14 Missouri 6-0 749
15 Georgia 4-2 615
16 Texas Tech 6-0 590
17 Fresno State 5-0 383 (MWC)
18 Oklahoma 5-1 380
19 Virginia Tech 6-1 352
20 Washington 4-2 309
21 Oklahoma State 4-1 264
22 Florida 4-2 249
23 Northern Illinois 6-0 185 (MAC)
24 Auburn 5-1 156
25 Wisconsin 4-2 153

*Conference leaders listed in bold

(10-15-2013 02:11 PM)OUBobcat9092 Wrote:  1 Alabama (55) 6-0 1495 (SEC)
2 Oregon (5) 6-0 1438 (PAC-12)
3 Clemson 6-0 1352 (ACC)
4 Ohio State 6-0 1330 (Big 10)
5 Florida State 5-0 1242
6 LSU 6-1 1137
7 Texas A&M 5-1 1105
8 Louisville 6-0 1077 (Big East/AAC)
9 UCLA 5-0 1017
10 Miami (FL) 5-0 912
11 South Carolina 5-1 896
12 Baylor 5-0 849 (Big 12)
13 Stanford 5-1 824
14 Missouri 6-0 749
15 Georgia 4-2 615
16 Texas Tech 6-0 590
17 Fresno State 5-0 383 (MWC)
18 Oklahoma 5-1 380
19 Virginia Tech 6-1 352
20 Washington 4-2 309
21 Oklahoma State 4-1 264
22 Florida 4-2 249
23 Northern Illinois 6-0 185 (MAC)
24 Auburn 5-1 156
25 Wisconsin 4-2 153

*Conference leaders listed in bold

NIU is much closer to Fresno than the human polls indicate because NIU enjoys a sizable computer lead over Fresno. Fresno is about 0.02 BCS points ahead, very very close. The big game IMO is all coming down to Boise vs BYU. With how close it is between NIU and Fresno, that could potentially be the decider in dictating the strength Fresno gets in the MWC championship.

Other thoughts from this thread...

Please do not post Sagarin information, that is THE worst ranking system ever created by man, complete garbage. Also a Fresno team would not be top 12 with a loss in the conference championship anyway.

(10-06-2013 01:12 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  NIU and Fresno only ones that have a chance.

Agree.

IF we are not sure that an undefeated NIU can make it, why would a once defeated BSU make it?

And an undefeated NIU team is what 50 - 50 of making a BCS bowl?

(10-15-2013 02:59 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(10-06-2013 01:12 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  NIU and Fresno only ones that have a chance.

Agree.

IF we are not sure that an undefeated NIU can make it, why would a once defeated BSU make it?

And an undefeated NIU team is what 50 - 50 of making a BCS bowl?

Have to hope NIU keeps winning and Baylor/Texas Tech/Okla St/Oklahoma trade some losses

Just wondering if non-NIU MAC fans root for us in conference games other than we play your team?

(10-15-2013 04:32 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  Just wondering if non-NIU MAC fans root for us in conference games other than we play your team?

I'm generally indifferent about who wins other MAC games. Some games are more interesting than others, but I don't root for any team over another unless it benefits my team. So, no, I don't root for NIU unless you are playing an East team we need to catch, pass, or stay ahead of. On the plus side, I don't root against NIU either. I think the NIU vs. BSU or UT games could be interesting, but I don't care who wins as long as it's a game that's fun to watch.

(10-15-2013 04:32 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  Just wondering if non-NIU MAC fans root for us in conference games other than we play your team?

If it's good for the conference I do.

(10-15-2013 04:39 PM)axeme Wrote:  

(10-15-2013 04:32 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  Just wondering if non-NIU MAC fans root for us in conference games other than we play your team?

I'm generally indifferent about who wins other MAC games. Some games are more interesting than others, but I don't root for any team over another unless it benefits my team. So, no, I don't root for NIU unless you are playing an East team we need to catch, pass, or stay ahead of. On the plus side, I don't root against NIU either. I think the NIU vs. BSU or UT games could be interesting, but I don't care who wins as long as it's a game that's fun to watch.

Agreed, I root for a certain MAC school to beat our competition in the West (usually Toledo) when needed.

But, i try to watch as many MAC games as possible even if my team is not involved.

I do not dislike any team. We have no fans that are full of themselves like over on the CUSA boards.

I am rooting for Ball State and NIU to get to their game with no more losses, then I will be rooting for the winner to run the table. This would be best for the MAC and would be the only possibility of getting another BCS bid for the league.

(10-15-2013 04:54 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(10-15-2013 04:32 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  Just wondering if non-NIU MAC fans root for us in conference games other than we play your team?

If it's good for the conference I do.

+1 I'm always a UT fan first but a MAC fan next. There ARE rare exceptions.