oklalittledixie
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I Root For: Oklahoma
Location: Oklahoma City
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RE: The proudly Child free and how they will bring down Western Civilization
(08-20-2013 09:27 PM)jh Wrote: Aw man, now I have to fix your formatting errors too? I want to make sure you get credit for all of your brilliance.
(08-20-2013 12:15 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote: (08-20-2013 01:37 AM)jh Wrote: (08-20-2013 12:59 AM)oklalittledixie Wrote: (08-20-2013 12:49 AM)jh Wrote: Wait, what? Seriously? Your explanation is that the White and Asian populations had a much lower total fertility rate than Hispanics? Seriously? Do you want to maybe look at the numbers I posted and try again? I'll even bold it for you. And repeat it, just to make it easy for you.
Non-Hispanic (total): 1.95
How about you try again. And at least put a little effort into it.
You've already lost the argument dude. There is no dependency in the numbers. Your source equals the same outcome as my source. I don't know how your source broke down its categories. I can tell you how my source broke down the numbers by demographics. Including legal and illegal births.
No, your sources (you provided the links to both of them, remember) are completely at odds with one another. I'm guessing that the CDC's numbers are a little better than Craigg639's, but, if you want to go the other way you have to pick a different number for 2011.
But wait, there's more.
When talking about the 2011 total fertility rate, you said:
(08-19-2013 01:58 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote: The overall fertility rate is 1.89. . . . Illegal immigrants having babies is not only not added into that rate, but adding to the problem of diluting our established culture.
Quote:Now, somehow, in 2006 illegal immigrants having babies is enough to drop the total fertility rate from 2.11 to 1.6. You do realize that both the 2006 (2.11) and 2011 (1.89) total fertility numbers came from the same chart, right? Did illegals simply stop having babies in the meantime.
again, the video clearly states that the fertility rate was 2.11 in 2006. It only touched upon the rate being 1.6 before the influx of Latino babies born from people coming through our southern border was factored in
Now the video only touched on the 1.6 number? I suppose if I go back through the thread I won't see you constantly stating that the total fertility number was 1.6 in 1988 or 1986?
(08-15-2013 10:34 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote: It was 1.6 in 2008.
(08-16-2013 12:04 AM)oklalittledixie Wrote: Which averages out to 1.6 per woman in 2008 and 1.89 per woman in 2011. . . .
That number is too low to maintain our culture. I'm going to keep repeating it until you understand it.
(08-16-2013 12:30 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote: The fertility rate is 1.89 children per each woman. That is too low to maintain a culture. It was too low in 2008(1.6) and it is too low now. I'm betting if you haven't been able to understand this by now, you may never understand it.
Nope, you never said anything like that.
Now, moving on, please explain to me how a non-Hispanic total fertility rate of 1.95 for 2006 somehow converts to a non-Hispanic total fertility rate of 1.6 for 2006.
And, just one more time, I would like to point out that most of the Hispanic babies born in America are not born to illegal immigrants. They can be real Americans too. It's true, I've seen it happen.
(08-20-2013 12:15 PM)oklalittledixie Wrote: jh Wrote:You need to stop changing your story. Pick something and go with it. Man up and show some conviction. If you can't be right, and you've certainly demonstrated that point, be certain.
The story has never changed. The fertility rates have remained constant throughout this conversation. Whether you want the breakdown in the video or the chart you provided, the rates are the same. The video never stated that the overall fertility rate was 1.6 in 2006. The fact of the matter is that our fertility rate is too low to maintain a native population. Your constant argument that the video was somehow false or wrong is not only false, but meaningless to the argument.
I think you are just stalling because you cannot get around the fact that we must rely on immigration for demographic stability. So man up and and admit the premise is correct.
I was about ready to give up on you, but you've made another tiny little bit of progress. You've now admitted that the 2.11 total fertility rate refers to demographic stability, as I've pointed out since the beginning of the conversation. You have been the one trying to pretend it was something else, not me.
(08-14-2013 10:48 PM)jh Wrote: Please note that the total fertility rate, fertility rate, and birth rate are all different things. A total fertility rate of 2.11 is the replacement level needed under the current mortality conditions (not a fertility rate as in the super special video or a birth rate as you keep calling it).
(08-15-2013 09:41 PM)jh Wrote: "The total fertility rate is the number of births that 1,000 women would have in their lifetime if, at each year of age, they experienced the birth rates occurring in the specified year. A total fertility rate of 2,110 represents “replacement level” fertility for the total population under current mortality conditions (assuming no net immigration)."
(08-15-2013 11:40 PM)jh Wrote: There is a different between the replacement rate (the 2.11 number), which is the total fertility rate needed to maintain a constant population without immigration, and the total fertility rate needed to maintain a culture with immigration (a much more difficult number to calculate). They are not the same thing, just as the birth rate, fertility rate, and total fertility rate are not the same thing either.
I admire your chutzpah. Not many people can pretend they've been arguing something entirely different all along with quite the same aplomb.
Now that we are starting to settle on the terms, if you would pick a coherent set of total fertility rates perhaps there could be a productive conversation.
You said 2008. I am the one and went back to discover it was 2006. and yes I believe anchor babies and births from newly arrived immigrants accounted for the 1.6 to 2.11 jump in 2006. I was in AZ in 2006. The Home Depot right outside my house would have at least 1000 illegal aliens swarming the parking lot each morning when I left for work. It would spill over into the post office and shopping center parking lot. It was not uncommon to see 20 ICE vans descend on the scene and watch a crowd so large scatter into the neighborhoods that you would think you were watching the running of the bulls in Spain.
The rates are the same as they have always been. I don't know what grand lie you think you have caught me in. You have taken us on a long journey of liberal idiocy.
The video(using 2006 data) states that the fertility rate was 2.11. That never wavered. The latest figures have us at 1.89(which has probably dropped in the last two years) and that to has never wavered.
The premise remains. That rate is too low for us to maintain our cultural identity. Are you now ready to come to terms with that, or are you still caught up on whether we are using birth rates or fertility rates that equal the same premise?
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