Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

Yep

Incentive. The big 5 no longer have an incentive ($) to expand.

Well if Aresco has any juice in him he is planning on what happens if there are scenarios where Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas leave and Big 12 collapses. I think then you have your Western Conference of AAC and add Boise, BYU and WV and you have a nice strong league. Then you become a P5.

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

Yawn

(08-06-2013 05:29 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

Yawn

Might be boring but I think we will have the final shift over next year and AAC just might come out smelling like a rose with a renegotiated television package based on 16 team truly national conference with the exception of west coast or maybe even San Diego State. You can run it as two separate divisions for travel save costs it can work. Game is not over yet.

(08-06-2013 05:35 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 05:29 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

Yawn

Might be boring but I think we will have the final shift over next year and AAC just might come out smelling like a rose with a renegotiated television package based on 16 team truly national conference with the exception of west coast or maybe even San Diego State. You can run it as two separate divisions for travel save costs it can work. Game is not over yet.

Please..this has been discussed until folks were blue in the face. Even with Boise and sdsu the tv deal was still crap.

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

The power of G5 teams does not necessarily translate into P5 conferences wanting them. Taking more teams in P5 conferences means splitting the money in further. If the team they are taking doesn't add big revenue (70K+ seat stadiums or travel well for bowls to want them) or big recruiting grounds (Rutgers, Syracuse, etc.) then it's unlikely any of the P5 conferences will want them. That's why UCONN wasn't taken or unlikely Cincy would be taken (especially with Ohio State in the B1G) and why Boise adds very little.

The P5 won't add teams just to fill a conference unless it fills their pockets too.

Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

(08-06-2013 07:30 AM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

The power of G5 teams does not necessarily translate into P5 conferences wanting them. Taking more teams in P5 conferences means splitting the money in further. If the team they are taking doesn't add big revenue (70K+ seat stadiums or travel well for bowls to want them) or big recruiting grounds (Rutgers, Syracuse, etc.) then it's unlikely any of the P5 conferences will want them. That's why UCONN wasn't taken or unlikely Cincy would be taken (especially with Ohio State in the B1G) and why Boise adds very little.

The P5 won't add teams just to fill a conference unless it fills their pockets too.

You missed the point.

I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory? The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do lose more teams.

I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

Hell, SMU would leave in a heartbeat, even if it was to be with TCU, UH, TTU, Baylor, KState, OSU, Iowa St... or whatever combo. Old SWC rivalries is what SMU wants and what SMU will probably get.

The PAC will expand into Texas eventually. The 30 million people there are the only logical next target. There isnt another place with PAC alumni live in the amounts they do. So, the question is... Do they take Texas and some combo? Does the Big12 remain in tact and they take SMU / UH? and that is just one peice of the puzzle... The BIG has said they will expand by 2016 - which means AT LEAST 2 teams will be added... even if they take just 2 from a p-5... what conference do you think will be taken from, no matter what... the AAC...

So to all of you who thinks there are no synergies left to be made by further expansion... That is a short sided and uncreative view, and every single commissioner would disagree with you. Even if the conference is "happy with where they are at" that setiment can change quickly, and they want options for growth. AAC, like the BigEast was, will be the pool they swim in. It's the AAC blessing and the curse.

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory. The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do loose more teams.

I think he was referring to schools that were brought up from non-AQ conferences to conferences that will be P5 going forward. Yes, UCF/Houston/Temple/SMU have been brought up from non-AQ to AQ, but that will be for only this season, so I think his point is a fair one.

Quote:I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

The Big East essentially DID sit back and watch itself get eaten up. We lost 13 out of 16 schools! That's being eaten alive. Of course we back-filled, but in the process we lost our identity - different name, no more AQ status.

And Triple A is correct about something else: The great bulk of the raiding has been among the P5 not via drafting schools from non-P5 to P5, which makes sense since those are the most valuable schools. With the three exceptions Triple noted, non-P5 only get selected as back-fill when P5 get raided. E.g. Louisville, despite their A+ level basketball, good football, and amazing athletic revenue, would still be stuck in the G5 if the B1G hadn't raided the ACC for Maryland. But, thanks to GoR, those moves are much less likely now, and hence it is much less likely that any G5 will move up to P5 any time soon.

SMU and USF will probably both be in the AAC for the next 10 years. Sad, but true so better get used to it and make the best of it.

(08-06-2013 08:23 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory. The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do loose more teams.

I think he was referring to schools that were brought up from non-AQ conferences to conferences that will be P5 going forward. Yes, UCF/Houston/Temple/SMU have been brought up from non-AQ to AQ, but that will be for only this season, so I think his point is a fair one.

Quote:I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

The Big East essentially DID sit back and watch itself get eaten up. We lost 13 out of 16 schools! That's being eaten alive. Of course we back-filled, but in the process we lost our identity - different name, no more AQ status.

And Triple A is correct about something else: The great bulk of the raiding has been among the P5 not via drafting schools from non-P5 to P5, which makes sense since those are the most valuable schools. With the three exceptions Triple noted, non-P5 only get selected as back-fill when P5 get raided. E.g. Louisville, despite their A+ level basketball, good football, and amazing athletic revenue, would still be stuck in the G5 if the B1G hadn't raided the ACC for Maryland. But, thanks to GoR, those moves are much less likely now, and hence it is much less likely that any G5 will move up to P5 any time soon.

SMU and USF will probably both be in the AAC for the next 10 years. Sad, but true so better get used to it and make the best of it.

Well pointing out tiny details for argument sake is a waste of time to me. You point out moves done by p5... that term and thinking didnt exist until the past year - so categorizing p5 in the past movements is irrelevant. AQ status for just one year, yes... but everyone technically loses AQ status... so that is also irrelevant. And yes, I am aware that the contract bowls make it as if the AQ status still exists... So don't remind me.

If your point is that the AAC will not be 'raided' and we will be in this for the long haul, i just flat out disagree with you. Conference shifting may never be done. What will make the "p-5" conferences satisfied? You nor I know, but by the history of college football, I can assure you that movement will occur, and change will happen. and WHEN THE BIG GROWS, THE AAC WILL BE AFFECTED. That is my point. I am not trashing this conference in any way. I am not trying to say SMU is better and deserves X either. I do think however SMU, as well as most AAC teams, will find themselves in 'top' conferences... all in due time.

(08-06-2013 05:42 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 05:35 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 05:29 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 01:46 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  Guys, our conference is underrated, yet that doesn't change the fact that the AAC will be short lived. As the BIG grows, so too will other conferences. In a big12 death scenario, the remaining big12 teams will merge with logical AAC teams, practically killing it. Or the PAC may take uh or smu. Or BIG take cincy or uconn, or whatever it is, it is bad news for AAC.

Our schools will grow in this conference, but that won't prevent any of us from taking the paycheck when it's offered.

Yawn

Might be boring but I think we will have the final shift over next year and AAC just might come out smelling like a rose with a renegotiated television package based on 16 team truly national conference with the exception of west coast or maybe even San Diego State. You can run it as two separate divisions for travel save costs it can work. Game is not over yet.

Please..this has been discussed until folks were blue in the face. Even with Boise and sdsu the tv deal was still crap.

Sure, our contract was crap. However, would it still be crap if there are only 80-85 D-4 schools and we are part of that slimmed down top division? The inventory of D4 games would be much smaller than the current bloated inventory of FBS games. Not to mention, we would be a much more stable conference at that point. I wouldn't expect 20 million a team, but 10 million might be possible when the league expanded to 16/18 with a western teams like Boise, BYU, and Air Force.

(08-06-2013 04:56 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  Well if Aresco has any juice in him he is planning on what happens if there are scenarios where Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas leave and Big 12 collapses. I think then you have your Western Conference of AAC and add Boise, BYU and WV and you have a nice strong league. Then you become a P5.

dude why would the big 12 ever collapse? You sound like the CUSA guys who wished the big east would "collapse." Big 12 has contract with the contract bowls, huge TV deal, etc. If the top guys in the conference leave, they'll just pick the next best X amount of teams from AAC and MWC and move on. AAC and MWC will pull from CUSA/Sun belt and so on. I never understood why anyone would think a power conference league would just collapse and disappear? Why would they leave to join a conference when they could just pull up the best of the rest?

(08-06-2013 08:53 AM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 04:56 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  Well if Aresco has any juice in him he is planning on what happens if there are scenarios where Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas leave and Big 12 collapses. I think then you have your Western Conference of AAC and add Boise, BYU and WV and you have a nice strong league. Then you become a P5.

dude why would the big 12 ever collapse? You sound like the CUSA guys who wished the big east would "collapse." Big 12 has contract with the contract bowls, huge TV deal, etc. If the top guys in the conference leave, they'll just pick the next best X amount of teams from AAC and MWC and move on. AAC and MWC will pull from CUSA/Sun belt and so on. I never understood why anyone would think a power conference league would just collapse and disappear? Why would they leave to join a conference when they could just pull up the best of the rest?

+1

new topic line "Warning, this thread is for realists"

(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

I agree, and timetable is unknown... but youre probably right in theory

(08-06-2013 08:56 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:53 AM)Knights_of_UCF Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 04:56 AM)martini7777 Wrote:  Well if Aresco has any juice in him he is planning on what happens if there are scenarios where Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas leave and Big 12 collapses. I think then you have your Western Conference of AAC and add Boise, BYU and WV and you have a nice strong league. Then you become a P5.

dude why would the big 12 ever collapse? You sound like the CUSA guys who wished the big east would "collapse." Big 12 has contract with the contract bowls, huge TV deal, etc. If the top guys in the conference leave, they'll just pick the next best X amount of teams from AAC and MWC and move on. AAC and MWC will pull from CUSA/Sun belt and so on. I never understood why anyone would think a power conference league would just collapse and disappear? Why would they leave to join a conference when they could just pull up the best of the rest?

+1

new topic line "Warning, this thread is for realists"

another +1

(08-06-2013 09:28 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

I agree, and timetable is unknown... but youre probably right in theory

Yep, time is the only variable.