(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

I believe this eventually will take place too... And only because the p5 want to create a big enough division to make the split.

(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

Add 13 teams from where? Teams whose fans do not travel well to bowl games? Teams whose stadiums are sub 40K in capacity when the rest of the conference teams average 70K or more? Teams that add nothing to recruiting (Cincy being blocked by Ohio State) add what? Do you really think the above conferences want to share revenues with teams that will drag down their shares not increase them?

(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

Interesting theory. Why 6x16, though? And is that a complete break from D1, or are there going to be non-football members of D4?

(08-06-2013 09:50 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:07 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  I believe when this all settle down D4 will be a six (6) conference division of 16 teams each with no independents. D4 will have 96 teams.

Teams already in D4:

ACC (15) Notre Dame will play football here.
Big 10 (14)
SEC (14)
PAC 12
Big 12 (10)

The above teams will add 13 teams and the new conference to be named will add 16.

I believe 29 teams from the G5 will move up.

Interesting theory. Why 6x16, though? And is that a complete break from D1, or are there going to be non-football members of D4?

Why not? I think the A10 and the Big East would be added for sure but and they could both go to 16 in basketball.

(08-06-2013 08:35 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  If your point is that the AAC will not be 'raided' and we will be in this for the long haul, i just flat out disagree with you. ..... I do think however SMU, as well as most AAC teams, will find themselves in 'top' conferences... all in due time.

Nobody is saying that realignment is done FOREVER. I certainly am not, because as conditions change conferences will attempt to adjust to them, and that could mean more movement. That's why i said that USF and SMU would be in the AAC for the next 10 years, not for infinity.

Can we agree on one thing? The odds that AAC schools like USF and SMU will get called up to a P5 will increase over time. So the only question is the timing of the probabilities. Here are my probabilities, expressed as a percentage chance that SMU and/or USF will be promoted to a P5 by the following years:

2014: close to 0%
2016: 5%
2018: 15 %
2020: 30%
2022: 40%
2024: 45%
2026: 60% (Big 12 GoR expires)
2028: 75%
2030: 85%
2034: close to 100%

That's why i said you and I should settle in for the next 10 years, because chances are we will be in the AAC until then.
What do your probabilities look like?

Louisville was a small private city school in 1971. We became a State school in 1971. It took us 42 years to grow to where we are. Many in AAC are already well pass from where Louisville started so it will vary from school to school.

(08-06-2013 10:03 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:35 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  If your point is that the AAC will not be 'raided' and we will be in this for the long haul, i just flat out disagree with you. ..... I do think however SMU, as well as most AAC teams, will find themselves in 'top' conferences... all in due time.

Nobody is saying that realignment is done FOREVER. I certainly am not, because as conditions change conferences will attempt to adjust to them, and that could mean more movement. That's why i said that USF and SMU would be in the AAC for the next 10 years, not for infinity.

Can we agree on one thing? The odds that AAC schools like USF and SMU will get called up to a P5 will increase over time. So the only question is the timing of the probabilities. Here are my probabilities, expressed as a percentage chance that SMU and/or USF will be promoted to a P5 by the following years:

2014: close to 0%
2016: 5%
2018: 15 %
2020: 30% (Big 12 GoR expires)
2022: 40%
2024: 50%
2026: 60%
2028: 75%
2030: 85%
2034: close to 100%

That's why i said you and I should settle in for the next 10 years, because chances are we will be in the AAC until then.
What do your probabilities look like?

I'm pretty sure the XII GoR expires in 2026. It's supposed to cover the length of the recently extended TV contract.

(08-06-2013 10:24 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  I'm pretty sure the XII GoR expires in 2026. It's supposed to cover the length of the recently extended TV contract.

Thanks. I corrected in original post.

Memphis needs a football team and they need it now.

Looking into my crystal ball, the conference networks and a la carte cable, could still create realignment and expansion. As the need for subscribers and inventory increases to off set potential market demands conferences could continue poach each other. What could also occur is that the P5 merge their media rights and sell them all as one giant network...

Its no mystery that the B1G is/was interested in further expansion. They acknowledged that they evaluated Vandy, KU and OU as potential targets. With the GoR in place for the ACC and Big12 I think things between the P5 are calm for another decade. Depending on the climate then I believe the Big12 is back to being the most vulnerable, though I am no expert on Texas politics and the ability of Baylor and TCU in preventing TT and UT from leaving. Same for Kansas and whether or not the state would allow them to seperate from KSU..

As I have mentioned prior, as we are now, with 12 memebers we have room to expand as the future dictates. I believe Aresco and the AAC are prepared for either of two eventualities. 1) the P5 decides the Division 4 should very exclusive. In this scenario the AAC would attempt to poach the best from the MWC and plead their case for inclusion as the best of the rest. 2) the Big12 fractures UT, TT, OU, and OSU head west to the PAC. KU to the B1G. The remaining group could get picked over by the SEC and or ACC, but the AAC would likely inheret as many as 4 schools.

Either way we are is as good a shape as we can be for the time being. The other scenario is the AAC gets poached again by the Big12, SEC or ACC and its moot.

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory? The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do lose more teams.

I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

Hell, SMU would leave in a heartbeat, even if it was to be with TCU, UH, TTU, Baylor, KState, OSU, Iowa St... or whatever combo. Old SWC rivalries is what SMU wants and what SMU will probably get.

The PAC will expand into Texas eventually. The 30 million people there are the only logical next target. There isnt another place with PAC alumni live in the amounts they do. So, the question is... Do they take Texas and some combo? Does the Big12 remain in tact and they take SMU / UH? and that is just one peice of the puzzle... The BIG has said they will expand by 2016 - which means AT LEAST 2 teams will be added... even if they take just 2 from a p-5... what conference do you think will be taken from, no matter what... the AAC...

So to all of you who thinks there are no synergies left to be made by further expansion... That is a short sided and uncreative view, and every single commissioner would disagree with you. Even if the conference is "happy with where they are at" that setiment can change quickly, and they want options for growth. AAC, like the BigEast was, will be the pool they swim in. It's the AAC blessing and the curse.

Man, you completely misread all of that. Maybe I wasn't clear.

I'm talking about the effective change in membership from BCS configuration in 1996 to 2014, when all the remaining pending moves except Navy are done. Temporary stays don't count in that analogy. They got added and then left behind again. Still on the outside.

Point is, the P5 have no incentive to add more, EXCEPT TO to help their conference networks (WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN), but that's only two conferences, and history has shown they're not exactly adding non-P5 members (who get to stay) hand over fist. It's not like 15 or 20 teams are likely moving up. I'm talking about to the power and money, not to Division 4.

As for you thinking I was implying we should sit back and let things happen, that's the exact opposite of what I said. I said we are all trying to move up, and would go if invited. But nothing is overtly happening right this minute. Doesn't mean we aren't all scrambling behind the scenes to move up. I know Memphis is.

My point there was we should shut up talking about it so much here. Take it to the CR forum, if it's such a burning issue for everybody. We just keep bringing up the same crap over and over: "We would move first chance we got." Well, duh.

THAT is what I was talking about.

(08-06-2013 11:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory? The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do lose more teams.

I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

Hell, SMU would leave in a heartbeat, even if it was to be with TCU, UH, TTU, Baylor, KState, OSU, Iowa St... or whatever combo. Old SWC rivalries is what SMU wants and what SMU will probably get.

The PAC will expand into Texas eventually. The 30 million people there are the only logical next target. There isnt another place with PAC alumni live in the amounts they do. So, the question is... Do they take Texas and some combo? Does the Big12 remain in tact and they take SMU / UH? and that is just one peice of the puzzle... The BIG has said they will expand by 2016 - which means AT LEAST 2 teams will be added... even if they take just 2 from a p-5... what conference do you think will be taken from, no matter what... the AAC...

So to all of you who thinks there are no synergies left to be made by further expansion... That is a short sided and uncreative view, and every single commissioner would disagree with you. Even if the conference is "happy with where they are at" that setiment can change quickly, and they want options for growth. AAC, like the BigEast was, will be the pool they swim in. It's the AAC blessing and the curse.

Man, you completely misread all of that. Maybe I wasn't clear.

I'm talking about the effective change in membership from BCS configuration in 1996 to 2014, when all the remaining pending moves except Navy are done. Temporary stays don't count in that analogy. They got added and then left behind again. Still on the outside.

Point is, the P5 have no incentive to add more, EXCEPT TO to help their conference networks (WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN), but that's only two conferences, and history has shown they're not exactly adding non-P5 members (who get to stay) hand over fist. It's not like 15 or 20 teams are likely moving up. I'm talking about to the power and money, not to Division 4.

As for you thinking I was implying we should sit back and let things happen, that's the exact opposite of what I said. I said we are all trying to move up, and would go if invited. But nothing is overtly happening right this minute. Doesn't mean we aren't all scrambling behind the scenes to move up. I know Memphis is.

My point there was we should shut up talking about it so much here. Take it to the CR forum, if it's such a burning issue for everybody. We just keep bringing up the same crap over and over: "We would move first chance we got." Well, duh.

THAT is what I was talking about.

Honestly what do you see happening to Memphis?

(08-06-2013 11:53 AM)gotigersgo111111 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 11:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory? The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do lose more teams.

I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

Hell, SMU would leave in a heartbeat, even if it was to be with TCU, UH, TTU, Baylor, KState, OSU, Iowa St... or whatever combo. Old SWC rivalries is what SMU wants and what SMU will probably get.

The PAC will expand into Texas eventually. The 30 million people there are the only logical next target. There isnt another place with PAC alumni live in the amounts they do. So, the question is... Do they take Texas and some combo? Does the Big12 remain in tact and they take SMU / UH? and that is just one peice of the puzzle... The BIG has said they will expand by 2016 - which means AT LEAST 2 teams will be added... even if they take just 2 from a p-5... what conference do you think will be taken from, no matter what... the AAC...

So to all of you who thinks there are no synergies left to be made by further expansion... That is a short sided and uncreative view, and every single commissioner would disagree with you. Even if the conference is "happy with where they are at" that setiment can change quickly, and they want options for growth. AAC, like the BigEast was, will be the pool they swim in. It's the AAC blessing and the curse.

Man, you completely misread all of that. Maybe I wasn't clear.

I'm talking about the effective change in membership from BCS configuration in 1996 to 2014, when all the remaining pending moves except Navy are done. Temporary stays don't count in that analogy. They got added and then left behind again. Still on the outside.

Point is, the P5 have no incentive to add more, EXCEPT TO to help their conference networks (WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN), but that's only two conferences, and history has shown they're not exactly adding non-P5 members (who get to stay) hand over fist. It's not like 15 or 20 teams are likely moving up. I'm talking about to the power and money, not to Division 4.

As for you thinking I was implying we should sit back and let things happen, that's the exact opposite of what I said. I said we are all trying to move up, and would go if invited. But nothing is overtly happening right this minute. Doesn't mean we aren't all scrambling behind the scenes to move up. I know Memphis is.

My point there was we should shut up talking about it so much here. Take it to the CR forum, if it's such a burning issue for everybody. We just keep bringing up the same crap over and over: "We would move first chance we got." Well, duh.

THAT is what I was talking about.

Honestly what do you see happening to Memphis?

Not sure who you are asking, but I can see them in the top 80 schools that would be d4... not quite sure where they fall, but not SEC and not BIG, or PAC, but i think they fall somewhere good.

If Texas ever awakens from its kingmaker slumber and the B12 implodes, I could see UC, Houston, Memphis and one or both of USF and UCF joining forces with the remainders.

(08-06-2013 12:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If Texas ever awakens from its kingmaker slumber and the B12 implodes, I could see UC, Houston, Memphis and one or both of USF and UCF joining forces with the remainders.

Or taking that one step further.. maybe the Big Mountain America 12 will form .

Baylor
Iowa St
Kansas St
TCU
Cinicnnati
Memphis
Houston
UCF
USF
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU

(08-06-2013 12:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If Texas ever awakens from its kingmaker slumber and the B12 implodes, I could see UC, Houston, Memphis and one or both of USF and UCF joining forces with the remainders.

that would still be called the big 12 but you could be right. Which AAC team would turn down a chance to play with WVU, OK St, Baylor, TCU, etc. Much better options than our current situation unfortunately.

Amen. Infinitely better.

(08-06-2013 11:53 AM)gotigersgo111111 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 11:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 08:12 AM)SMUfrat Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 07:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Since the inception of the BCS in the '90s, they have added a grand total of 3 teams (TCU, Utah, UL). All 3 made it just to give their conferences an even number of teams. It's not like the P5 conferences are pining to add anybody, b/c we are successful on the field. They don't care. They've just been raiding each other, until the crap came all the way downhill.

And the only adds coming up will be for conference networks, and again, the big boys will raid other P5 conferences, if they can. There is no guarantee the numbers fall out where there are any call-ups. Maybe, maybe not. And everybody in this conference is trying to be the next call-up. Not exactly a secret.

So WHY do we keep bringing this up?

They actually added 7, including SMU, UH, Memphis, and UCF. What about USF and UConn? They were added... And Louiville / Cincy back when... Selective memory? The big12 will find itself in a similar position as AAC if they do lose more teams.

I brought this up because if you feel safer thinking the AAC is a great final resting spot and we just need to sit back, you couldnt be more wrong. No conference will sit around and watch themselves be eaten up. Big12 will fight just as BigEast did. if they lose 4 - 8 schools, there will be massive shifting.

Hell, SMU would leave in a heartbeat, even if it was to be with TCU, UH, TTU, Baylor, KState, OSU, Iowa St... or whatever combo. Old SWC rivalries is what SMU wants and what SMU will probably get.

The PAC will expand into Texas eventually. The 30 million people there are the only logical next target. There isnt another place with PAC alumni live in the amounts they do. So, the question is... Do they take Texas and some combo? Does the Big12 remain in tact and they take SMU / UH? and that is just one peice of the puzzle... The BIG has said they will expand by 2016 - which means AT LEAST 2 teams will be added... even if they take just 2 from a p-5... what conference do you think will be taken from, no matter what... the AAC...

So to all of you who thinks there are no synergies left to be made by further expansion... That is a short sided and uncreative view, and every single commissioner would disagree with you. Even if the conference is "happy with where they are at" that setiment can change quickly, and they want options for growth. AAC, like the BigEast was, will be the pool they swim in. It's the AAC blessing and the curse.

Man, you completely misread all of that. Maybe I wasn't clear.

I'm talking about the effective change in membership from BCS configuration in 1996 to 2014, when all the remaining pending moves except Navy are done. Temporary stays don't count in that analogy. They got added and then left behind again. Still on the outside.

Point is, the P5 have no incentive to add more, EXCEPT TO to help their conference networks (WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN), but that's only two conferences, and history has shown they're not exactly adding non-P5 members (who get to stay) hand over fist. It's not like 15 or 20 teams are likely moving up. I'm talking about to the power and money, not to Division 4.

As for you thinking I was implying we should sit back and let things happen, that's the exact opposite of what I said. I said we are all trying to move up, and would go if invited. But nothing is overtly happening right this minute. Doesn't mean we aren't all scrambling behind the scenes to move up. I know Memphis is.

My point there was we should shut up talking about it so much here. Take it to the CR forum, if it's such a burning issue for everybody. We just keep bringing up the same crap over and over: "We would move first chance we got." Well, duh.

THAT is what I was talking about.

Honestly what do you see happening to Memphis?

IMO, we'll be playing in the top division, even at a huge financial disadvantage. As far as getting into the P5, who knows? I think it's a crap shoot at this point, but too far away to worry about today.

Baylor
Iowa St
Kansas St
TCU
Cinicnnati
Memphis
Houston
UCF
USF
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU



And that is what scares the hell out of me...

(08-06-2013 01:33 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  

(08-06-2013 12:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If Texas ever awakens from its kingmaker slumber and the B12 implodes, I could see UC, Houston, Memphis and one or both of USF and UCF joining forces with the remainders.

Or taking that one step further.. maybe the Big Mountain America 12 will form .

Baylor
Iowa St
Kansas St
TCU
Cinicnnati
Memphis
Houston
UCF
USF
Boise St
Fresno St
SDSU

Definitely not a P5 conference.