(07-03-2013 02:01 PM)ecu92 Wrote: The Big XII won't be making any moves unless another conference swipes one of the current members, or a "name brand" school comes on the market.
It appears the ACC is now "locked down" with their new additions, particularly ND, and a huge exit fee.
Texas and Oklahoma could potentially bolt together for the PAC-12 (or whatever they're calling it). But again, it's doubtful anyone's going to pay Texas what they think they're worth.
They missed their chance to grab Louisville...that was their "best of the rest" option.
This in my opinion is right and you have been kind in your remarks.
In the beginning after Missouri and A&M left Texas was not sure what it needed to do. Do we go to the PAC, do we entertain the ACC or Big 10, or do we salvage the Big 12?
I believe they had thoughts of hoping to lure Notre Dame into some kind of arrangement with them so they waited to see who they needed to pursue as future members that might be acceptable to the Irish. Notre Dame wasn't interested. The Big 10 snatches Maryland and the ACC responds decisively by taking Louisville and coming to terms with Notre Dame.
Now the tardiness of response by Texas and Oklahoma have allowed one of their best options profitably and geographically in connection with West Virginia to be taken off the market.
Kudos to John Swofford for breaking the ACC's academic norms and hamstringing his competition. The move meant that now the most profitable team out there for the Big 12 to expand with would be Westward and not to the Northeast.
If there had been any quality (in terms of adding cash value) teams out there interested in the Big 12 they would already have them.
B.Y.U. has potential but by themselves can't provide enough umpf to make it worth Texas and Oklahoma passing on better options.
The highly touted GOR now becomes a shackles for the top 4 to 6 programs of the Big 12. While the ACC's GOR yields the perception of strength they had hoped it would be.
So either 8 teams find new homes, or everyone in the Big 12 sweats out the next ever how many years of their bondage. The Big 12 has 2 top 10 teams in earning potential and then a fairly wide gulf until it gets to Kansas and West Virginia. It's that economic gap that exists between the top, the middle, and the bottom that along with their market footprint limits the upside of the conference.
I doubt that B.Y.U. and either Cincinnati, or one of the 4th or 5th Florida schools will add enough to solidify that conference.
That's why we will have 1 of 3 potential outcomes here:
1. 8 or more teams will be brokered to new homes with compromise by all conferences participating in the move.
2. We wait 8 to 10 years and see a bolting of the top 6 schools to other conferences.
3. They add B.Y.U. and Cincinnati, or one of the Florida Schools and just decide to make less.
Which of those three solutions do you think will be the most palatable?
They won't opt for less money while their competition is earning more.
They will have many hard feelings and some political entanglements by waiting and leaving potentially 4 schools in the lurch.
They could free themselves and broker an amicable solution for the majority.
Folks may think I'm crazy but I think it will be the latter. Less pain, more gain!