(03-30-2013 11:04 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 09:33 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 08:47 AM)Ragu Wrote:  

(03-29-2013 08:32 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  

(03-29-2013 05:28 PM)Ragu Wrote:  Did you really just say that Georgia Southern is more successful than any FCS or FBS team. Really? Do you not realize the huge difference between FCS and FBS level football? FAU made the final 4 in FCS in their 4th year of starting football from scratch.

Georgia Southern isn't even close to the top echelon in FBS now or anytime in the past. You are on crack if you really think as you type.

Is there another program in division 1 that has more national titles and title game appearances over the last 30 years? Go ahead and educate me if I said something factually incorrect.

So playing FCS competition is the same as playing FBS competition now?

Now I know not to take anything seriously from you. You obviously are not very knowledgeable about the huge difference between FCS and FBS football.

Yeah, Ga So is no Wagner...

Wouldn't put it past you or other Sun Belt fans for thinking that though. You guys are some of the more delusional fans on these boards.

Our level of anti-FCS bias is probably lower than many.

There was a lot of laughter about FIU/FAU for a while but it didn't take that long before they transitioned and were serious competitors.

WKU was the laughing stock for a little while but daayumm they blew up and that's over.

Troy. They did ok.

USA has a good transition going. Texas State has a good transition going.

App State and Georgia Southern have just as much opportunity, maybe more, of blowing up and making noise in a relatively short time frame.

I think we can say the same of ODU.

UTSA is playing to its strengths at the moment and may have a non-traditional transition route. I can't say that it is a bad way for them to go. If it works, they will take off and be a player.

It's true we don't know anything about Charlotte yet.

Georgia State is the one that is questionable at the moment and that has nothing to do with their FCS status and has more to do with geography and structural things that would apply regardless.

Over the years I've learned that there is nothing inherent in being an FCS move-up that causes you long-term problems. The determining factor is how your transition strategy matches your strengths/weaknesses and how well you implement it.

I'm thinking that Georgia Southern's main problem may be that they are so wedded to past success that they just try to carry it forward into FBS without developing a real FBS strategy. That would be a recipe for disaster.

Per newspaper article, WKU has been invited & will be joining CUSA next week.

http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wester...963f4.html

(03-30-2013 11:46 AM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  The state of West Virginia has nothing to offer for Georgia Southern.

Except $1m to give them a warm-up game, so don't be surprised if Georgia Southern ends up playing somewhere that isn't a fertile recruiting ground sometime in the decade ahead.

(03-30-2013 11:37 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 10:20 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Georgia Southern will find out the difference between FBS and FCS competition soon enough. They play WVU September 14th, and Alabama October 5th...

Dude, you're reading the Georgia State schedule. Georgia Southern is up on FBschedules.com yet, they were just announced as being added.

My bad. However, IMO one small school is pretty much indistinguishable from the next. So my mistake there is understandable...

(03-30-2013 12:01 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 11:46 AM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  The state of West Virginia has nothing to offer for Georgia Southern.

Except $1m to give them a warm-up game, so don't be surprised if Georgia Southern ends up playing somewhere that isn't a fertile recruiting ground sometime in the decade ahead.

I remember Marshall taking Georgia Southern to the woodshed a couple of time during their time in 1-AA ball...

(03-30-2013 11:56 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  Per newspaper article, WKU has been invited & will be joining CUSA next week.

http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wester...963f4.html

Also....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-o...9430.story

(03-30-2013 01:01 PM)redfan Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 11:56 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  Per newspaper article, WKU has been invited & will be joining CUSA next week.

http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wester...963f4.html

Also....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-o...9430.story

I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

The Sun Belt and JMU are on the clock...

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:01 PM)redfan Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 11:56 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  Per newspaper article, WKU has been invited & will be joining CUSA next week.

http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wester...963f4.html

Also....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-o...9430.story

I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

They are announcing Tulsa's replacement before Tulsa even announces they are leaving.

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

If the reporting from November was accurate, that WKY and NMSU had been contacted regarding a future spot in CUSA and both had said yes, with WKY first in line, then yes, CUSA's next move was obvious.

And it seems to have been accurate. You can't keep these things secret once the invitation has been formally accepted, the Board of Regents or Board of Governors or whatever is never closemouthed about votes that have been taken, they always want to tell somebody about the decision, because it makes them feel important.

And so a newspaper can always get "multiple sources with knowledge of the move" after the vote has been taken.

The BIG TBA already said that the expansion to be announced would be for 2014, so that means this would likely be as well.

After Monday, eyes will turn to the Sunbelt.

(03-30-2013 01:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

If the reporting from November was accurate, that WKY and NMSU had been contacted regarding a future spot in CUSA and both had said yes, with WKY first in line, then yes, CUSA's next move was obvious.

And it seems to have been accurate. You can't keep these things secret once the invitation has been formally accepted, the Board of Regents or Board of Governors or whatever is never closemouthed about votes that have been taken, they always want to tell somebody about the decision, because it makes them feel important.

And so a newspaper can always get "multiple sources with knowledge of the move" after the vote has been taken.

The BIG TBA already said that the expansion to be announced would be for 2014, so that means this would likely be as well.

After Monday, eyes will turn to the Sunbelt.

That, unfortunately means FBS could balloon to a ridiculous 130+ teams. May as well just send a letter to the power conferences and ask them to split off. Anytime the top level of football gets too much over 100 or so teams the top group gets culled down to a more manageable number (historically somewhere around 80-90 teams). I'd say that move is coming very soon now that we may exceed 130 teams. Because of the way the financials and TV works, I wouldnt be surprised if the number is trimmed much lower than the historical average this time around.

(03-30-2013 02:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  That, unfortunately means FBS could balloon to a ridiculous 130+ teams. May as well just send a letter to the power conferences and ask them to split off.

Under current commercial arrangements, I don't think the Big Five give much of a tinkers damn what the Mid-Majors do as far as membership size, since they are not going to give the Mid-Majors any more money for having extra members. It just means a couple more Mid-Majors that are bowl eligible but don't get an invite.

Now that conferences hold football TV contracts, the Big Five are not much concerned with the number of "Lesser FBS" subdivision schools. Even at the Group of Five level, contracts and the TV spots are with the conferences, so more Group of Five schools just means fewer appearances per school.

One big pile of money that might help drive a split is the NCAA Basketball tournament. Less than half of that money goes to the appearance money, so a breakaway big conference division championship tournament could mean quite a bit of a pay increase for the big conference basketball programs.

(03-30-2013 01:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:01 PM)redfan Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 11:56 AM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  Per newspaper article, WKU has been invited & will be joining CUSA next week.

http://www.bgdailynews.com/sports/wester...963f4.html

Also....
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fau-o...9430.story

I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

They are announcing Tulsa's replacement before Tulsa even announces they are leaving.

Maybe....another possibility is that since ecu has the all-sports invite in hand they have now officially given notice of withdrawal to C-USA.

As of very recently (less than a week past), neither ecu nor tulane have given ACTUAL notification to C-USA.....yeah, it was a technicality but a technicality that could bite C-USA in the butt if others were invited and ecu had not received the all-sports invite and then decided full C-USA was better than partial no-namers.

Like I said, I suspect we're filling in behind an official withdrawal notification from ecu or tulane.......

0, 1 or 2 to go to get at 14 or 16 members depending on Tulsa and if C-USA wants 14 or 16 as the stopping point for now.

(03-30-2013 02:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

If the reporting from November was accurate, that WKY and NMSU had been contacted regarding a future spot in CUSA and both had said yes, with WKY first in line, then yes, CUSA's next move was obvious.

And it seems to have been accurate. You can't keep these things secret once the invitation has been formally accepted, the Board of Regents or Board of Governors or whatever is never closemouthed about votes that have been taken, they always want to tell somebody about the decision, because it makes them feel important.

And so a newspaper can always get "multiple sources with knowledge of the move" after the vote has been taken.

The BIG TBA already said that the expansion to be announced would be for 2014, so that means this would likely be as well.

After Monday, eyes will turn to the Sunbelt.

That, unfortunately means FBS could balloon to a ridiculous 130+ teams. May as well just send a letter to the power conferences and ask them to split off. Anytime the top level of football gets too much over 100 or so teams the top group gets culled down to a more manageable number (historically somewhere around 80-90 teams). I'd say that move is coming very soon now that we may exceed 130 teams. Because of the way the financials and TV works, I wouldnt be surprised if the number is trimmed much lower than the historical average this time around.

60 to 65.

(03-30-2013 03:28 PM)WinOrLoseEAGLE Wrote:  0, 1 or 2 to go to get at 14 or 16 members depending on Tulsa and if C-USA wants 14 or 16 as the stopping point for now.

No commercial reason to go beyond 12 for any Group of Five conference, unless the schools are available that meet a conference need.

(03-30-2013 03:30 PM)WinOrLoseEAGLE Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 02:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

If the reporting from November was accurate, that WKY and NMSU had been contacted regarding a future spot in CUSA and both had said yes, with WKY first in line, then yes, CUSA's next move was obvious.

And it seems to have been accurate. You can't keep these things secret once the invitation has been formally accepted, the Board of Regents or Board of Governors or whatever is never closemouthed about votes that have been taken, they always want to tell somebody about the decision, because it makes them feel important.

And so a newspaper can always get "multiple sources with knowledge of the move" after the vote has been taken.

The BIG TBA already said that the expansion to be announced would be for 2014, so that means this would likely be as well.

After Monday, eyes will turn to the Sunbelt.

That, unfortunately means FBS could balloon to a ridiculous 130+ teams. May as well just send a letter to the power conferences and ask them to split off. Anytime the top level of football gets too much over 100 or so teams the top group gets culled down to a more manageable number (historically somewhere around 80-90 teams). I'd say that move is coming very soon now that we may exceed 130 teams. Because of the way the financials and TV works, I wouldnt be surprised if the number is trimmed much lower than the historical average this time around.

60 to 65.

Why? They already have their share set in stone. There is no reason to care whether the lower level conferences dilute their share or not. In fact it is probably better for them that the shares be diluted.

Forcing half of FBS back down to another division seems difficult. It happened before partially because they sold those moving down on the idea that they would get a piece of the pie for moving down. Nobody is going to believe that now and voluntarily vote to move back down. There will also be a lot more political difficulties than before in accomplishing that. The alternative is to break away.

However, television needs a lot more content than it did back then. If they break away that content will still be needed. The big guys would then be competing with the NCAA rather than controlling it. An angry network shut out from the big guys might find it advantageous to start promoting and hyping the NCAA remnants a lot more than they are now. You no longer have control over the division of the pie...the market does.

They know what they get...they know what crumbs they allow for others. Seems to me that it is more advantageous to keep that control than it is to get more of the crumbs.

(03-30-2013 03:53 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  ... The alternative is to break away.

However, television needs a lot more content than it did back then. If they break away that content will still be needed. The big guys would then be competing with the NCAA rather than controlling it. ...

Indeed, some have suggested that if they breakaway, it'll be easier for them to breakaway with the Group of Five than without. One scholarship with stipend division, one scholarship only division, both putting teams into a 48 team BBall tournament.

(03-30-2013 03:53 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 03:30 PM)WinOrLoseEAGLE Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 02:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:56 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-30-2013 01:24 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  I guess CUSA's next move WAS obvious.

If the reporting from November was accurate, that WKY and NMSU had been contacted regarding a future spot in CUSA and both had said yes, with WKY first in line, then yes, CUSA's next move was obvious.

And it seems to have been accurate. You can't keep these things secret once the invitation has been formally accepted, the Board of Regents or Board of Governors or whatever is never closemouthed about votes that have been taken, they always want to tell somebody about the decision, because it makes them feel important.

And so a newspaper can always get "multiple sources with knowledge of the move" after the vote has been taken.

The BIG TBA already said that the expansion to be announced would be for 2014, so that means this would likely be as well.

After Monday, eyes will turn to the Sunbelt.

That, unfortunately means FBS could balloon to a ridiculous 130+ teams. May as well just send a letter to the power conferences and ask them to split off. Anytime the top level of football gets too much over 100 or so teams the top group gets culled down to a more manageable number (historically somewhere around 80-90 teams). I'd say that move is coming very soon now that we may exceed 130 teams. Because of the way the financials and TV works, I wouldnt be surprised if the number is trimmed much lower than the historical average this time around.

60 to 65.

Why? They already have their share set in stone. There is no reason to care whether the lower level conferences dilute their share or not. In fact it is probably better for them that the shares be diluted.

Forcing half of FBS back down to another division seems difficult. It happened before partially because they sold those moving down on the idea that they would get a piece of the pie for moving down. Nobody is going to believe that now and voluntarily vote to move back down. There will also be a lot more political difficulties than before in accomplishing that. The alternative is to break away.

However, television needs a lot more content than it did back then. If they break away that content will still be needed. The big guys would then be competing with the NCAA rather than controlling it. An angry network shut out from the big guys might find it advantageous to start promoting and hyping the NCAA remnants a lot more than they are now. You no longer have control over the division of the pie...the market does.

They know what they get...they know what crumbs they allow for others. Seems to me that it is more advantageous to keep that control than it is to get more of the crumbs.

They wont force anyone down. They will just elevate themselves up. Super-FBS, FBS, FCS. The NCAA is really not in a position to stop them. The NCAA needs the power schools to stick around for basketball. The entire NCAA structure is funded via the NCAA basketball tournament.

If the NCAA made it impossible for the power conferences to create the split they wanted in football, the power conferneces could walk away from the NCAA in ALL sports and create thier own governing body that is run the exact way they want to run things. That would be an incredibly profitable move for the power conferences. They basically hate hate hate how the money is divided by the NCAA tournament. They want the tournament to be run like the BCS, where they get virtually all the money.

The NCAA cant risk the destruction fo their cash cow basketball tournament. My guess is that they could base the divisions on average conference budget. Thats the easiest dividing line to draw and marks the clearest destinction between the power conferneces and the non-AQ's.

(03-30-2013 03:28 PM)WinOrLoseEAGLE Wrote:  Maybe....another possibility is that since ecu has the all-sports invite in hand they have now officially given notice of withdrawal to C-USA.

No, they already replaced ECU and Tulane. This is for Tulsa.

(03-29-2013 12:00 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  http://www.arkst.com/realignment-partici...spectator/

I skimmed it, but from what I saw, it looked like the reasoning was very flawed. I noticed that much of it is concerned with markets and that is a HUGE mistake. Markets do not matter very much. Fan support matters and that has very little to do with markets.

(03-31-2013 01:34 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(03-29-2013 12:00 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  http://www.arkst.com/realignment-partici...spectator/

I skimmed it, but from what I saw, it looked like the reasoning was very flawed. I noticed that much of it is concerned with markets and that is a HUGE mistake. Markets do not matter very much. Fan support matters and that has very little to do with markets.

Fan support doesn't matter that much in this era of conference realignment.