RE: Just a hunch: Missouri is the Big Ten's next addition
Okay let's play with your assumptions. North Carolina and Virginia will be a battle ground and likely the only one that the SEC and Big 10 could go to blows over. In Virginia the SEC would probably be content with Tech as they deliver as much of the state market as Virginia, and maybe more.
North Carolina is the obvious prize in their state and the SEC would likely extend a bid to both Duke and N.C. State to land them and halt the Big 10 if the two conferences refused to cooperate in this matter. That's something the Big 10 can't and won't do. Now I'm not saying that this is the ideal situation for the SEC, but knowing that Delany might well opt for Duke. They bring better academics and carry enough of the state to count and they draw well in the Big Apple. The University of North Carolina System will want a home for the Wolfpack. Packaging them with the Heels would be a do for the SEC. Delany wouldn't waste a pick and would still be able to go for Georgia Tech, a team the SEC wouldn't flinch about the Big 10 getting. Delany would then have three AAU schools and three of the four states he seeks. Miami could be inducted into AAU next election. The SEC wouldn't flinch over their addition to the Big 10 either.
With Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami the Big 10 accomplishes its market objectives, doesn't violate AAU status (provided Miami receives it) and doesn't go to war with the SEC who really doesn't want to spend 3 slots on the state of North Carolina.
The two teams that the SEC will likely fight over is North Carolina and Florida State. Mind you if the Big 10 goes to 20 and the SEC goes to 20 that means that eventually the Big 12 and PAC will either merge, or a substantial number of the Big 12 will be taken by the PAC so that they grow to 20.
The Big 10 has interest in a couple of mid-western teams. I don't think Mizzou is one of them. Kansas and Oklahoma would balance the western division beautifully. Oklahoma is not AAU but is close enough to be eligible in a few years. But the Big 10 won't take those two unless it knows that N.D. is totally out. I believe they will be without a question out to the Big 10.
The Big 10 can get to 20 with Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma. That's a heckuva conference footprint.
If they get to 20 with North Carolina they will likely have to take Duke to do it. That means they either give up entry into Florida, or they give up the addition of another midwestern school. It also frees the SEC to pick up another state since they won't have to spend two picks on North Carolina.
If the Big 10 takes those I suggested first then the SEC can counter with North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Florida State and then either West Virginia and Clemson for a concentrated easily traveled conference, or a Kansas and Oklahoma school for new markets. I think they will go for the content additions of F.S.U. and Clemson and the new state of West Virginia. Such a move allows the PAC to get to 20 as well. I think they will take Clemson because it is the right political decision and because they are a cultural fit. The only teams that could bump them from a 20 team SEC would be Oklahoma or Texas both of whom are very unlikely or (unless hell froze over and ) the Irish joined. Which of course they won't.
Now, what I find about your proposal that is most unlikely is the proposed raid of the ACC. It totally ignores network considerations and existing contracts.
If the ACC holds, and I think it will, then we move to 4 conferences with the parsing of the Big 12........some day, but probably not now. In that case an unbelievable cooperation between the PAC, SEC, and Big 10 must take place........and it won't. But it doesn't hurt to dream.
P.S. While I don't think it would happen has anyone in the Big 10 considered what an unfriendly and uncooperative move South could do to your markets? Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh are sitting out there and a 24 member SEC is not out of the question. Now Mike Slive might even cut the Irish a deal like the ACC has just to retaliate if necessary. I throw this out to just show how absurd all of the Big 10 Risk board theories can get. Does Kamchatka have a land grant AAU school?
(This post was last modified: 03-04-2013 01:53 AM by JRsec.)
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