Championship and Bowl Scenarios
Lots of things happened today, things that dont include the losses by Oregon and Kansas State.
For the SBC Championship the picture is clearer:
Eliminated: USA, FAU, FIU, UNT, Troy, WKU
Still in the Hunt: ULM, ULL
Drivers Seat: MTSU, ASU
1. If MTSU beats Troy at home next Saturday, then the MTSU/ASU game in Jonesboro on Dec 1st will be the defacto SBC Championship Game. Winner gets the trophy.
2. There will only be a share of the Title IF Troy beats MTSU, AND MTSU beats ASU the following week. That would create a 4 team tie between MTSU, ASU, ULM, and ULL. Per SBC rules, there is no tiebreaker, and all 4 teams are declared champions (Thats a lot of championship rings.)
Bowl Picture:
New Orleans Bowl is now a virtual lock for the Cajuns, though it wouldd be much easier for the Bowl if ULL could share the league title, which would satisfy part of the Bowl's contract. The only question is whether or not they would take a shot at an ASU or MTSU as champ, or stay with the known ULL attendance.
Go Daddy Bowl: Will either go to MTSU or ASU in almost every scenario. The understanding I have right now is that ASU would get a bid over the Blue Raiders regardless the final game on Dec 1st because of our attendance last year.
Other Bowls:
SEC had a terrible day today, and could now very likely leave a gazillion bowls open. They have 8 eligible, with 2 BCS. If Ole Miss and Missouri both lose next week (home vs Miss State, @ A&M respectively), Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence are all open for SBC teams.
If the SEC does not fill 3 bowls, my understanding is that the Liberty and Music City Bowls get to fight over who comes open. This creates an interesting scenario, as the Liberty is said to covet ASU should a spot come open, and I am curious to see whether or not the Music City Bowl will hope for Vandy to fill the game, or take a shot with an at large and go after MTSU. My guess is that Liberty comes open, and picks ASU to play against the CUSA Champion.
That leaves Birmingham, Independence, and Go Daddy open. There are questions about whether or not the Independence will go for a Tech/ULM matchup. Tech screwed the pooch today in the final ever WAC title game, and now is not guaranteed a WAC bowl bid.
That leaves Birmingham and Go Daddy to fight over WKU and MTSU, who both chould clearly get bids. In fact, if Troy beats MTSU next weekend, the Trojans will be a certain bowl bid as well and could steal one of the Bama bowls because of the larger fan base.
At least thats what I can figure for now.
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