(05-07-2012 04:25 PM)BaylorGuy314 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:12 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:54 PM)BaylorGuy314 Wrote:  Someone else will have to do the math.

You'd have about 25% more inventory with Clemson and FSU plus CCG. However, a lot of that extra inventory is non-conference games which are a mixed bag of desirability.

But, for giggles, if you assume the deal went up 25% (due to the increase in inventory) then that's an increase from $200M/yr to $250M/yr. Add in a CCG for, say, $20M/yr and that's now $270M/yr.

$270M/12 schools = $22.5M/yr/school. That would seem somewhat feasible.

You only have 20% more inventory with FSU+Clemson, not 25%, b

Are you sure? I could be doing the math wrong, but this is where I got that:

Currently:
10 teams playing 9 conference games each (45 games)
10 teams playing 3 non-conference games each (30 games)
TOTAL = 75 games

With 12 teams:
12 teams playing 8 conference games each (48 games)
12 teams playing 4 non-conference games each (48 games)
TOTAL = 96 games

You are adding two more teams, but not many more conference games (assuming you go from a 9 to 8 game schedule). So you actually get more than 20% kick.

Of course, not all non-conference games count since at least 25-33% of them will be likely be played away anyways.

By your math you could just play 8 conference games instead of 9 and add 5 games. I doubt that is what your television partners would like to see though.

If you go 12 teams I think you would still have to keep 9 games to keep the quality up. So that is 54 conf games and 36 out of conference games. Which is the 20% increase.

If the Big XII expanded, I'm sure they'd stick to the 9 game conference schedule.

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

This proves that 50% of Big XII money will exceed what WVU earned in The BEast...

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

He's talking about 8 million for FSU's tier 3 rights alone...

(05-07-2012 03:31 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  $200 M/year for 13 years. GOR to be extended to match TV deal.

So for any of you who think the PAC is going to add Texas and OK anytime soon, forget it. The Big XII is now stable for at least a decade and the PAC isn't expanding (there's nobody else worth adding).

Nor will the B10. Expansion is very close to ending for a while.

(05-07-2012 03:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:48 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:46 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:31 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  20 mil per year. Huge number for the Big 12- especially considering no title game.

ACC has got to make a splash with their tv deal renegotiation. If it was the number that they were talking about a few months ago- 14-15 million- it would be a disastor for the ACC.

As of now it seems 16mil-ish is the worst possible outcome, 20mil-ish being the best. It's still a ways away, and anything can happen.

Why is that the worst? The SBJ reported $14-$15 million. They reported $19-$20 for the Big 12. Now that $20 is being confirmed.

It is based on multiple people that claim to know what is going on are saying the number offered has been 230 million and the number desired is 270 million so it is going to mediation or arbitration or something at this point.

Mutiple people claiming to know say the Big 12 will get $28-$30 million with FSU and a ccg. I find those figures hard to believe. That ESPN would have a solid long term contract and bump it up from $155 million a year by $75 million to $115 million for Pitt and SU I also find hard to believe. ESPN is not into charity.

$20 million per team is for additions of TCU and WVU along with the existing 8 members. Add in a major program like FSU and another? Likely another $4-5 million each per team (ESPN AND FOX are going to bump up the payouts and somewhat be in competition for the better games) and a conference championship game for the BIG 12 is going to be worth mega dollars as well. Who knows for sure where it will end up, but it certainly will be very high numbers per team for 1st and 2nd tier rights and a BIG 12 Championship--not to mention schools can make money on tier 3 rights.

(05-07-2012 04:33 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  You're assuming they drop to an 8-game conference schedule. I don't think they do that. And I believe only the home non-conference games can be counted, not all of them. If you go 9 vs. 9, you get

10 teams - 10x9/2 = 45 games + 10x1.5 = 15 games == 60 games
12 teams - 12x9/2 = 54 games + 12x1.5 = 18 games == 72 games

12/60 = 20%

That's reasonable. I guess we could say "somewhere in the 20-25% range" depending on how they do the scheduling.

Either way, I don't see the Big 12 earning more than, say, $22-23M/yr/school even with FSU and Clemson. While I recognize that those are possibilities, I don't think the parties are nearly as close as some speculate. I agree with an earlier poster that it makes more sense for a group (say, FSU/Miami/GT/Clemson) to all come on board than just FSU and Clemson. Of course, I would've never thought 3-4 years ago that Utah would be in the PAC or that WVU would be in the Big 12. And two years ago, I thought my alma mater was destined for the Big East, MWC, or CUSA.

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  This proves that 50% of Big XII money will exceed what WVU earned in The BEast...

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

He's talking about 8 million for FSU's tier 3 rights alone...

The tier three money figures being thrown around here always include radio yet everyone wants to assume it is for one football game and a few basketball games. The ACC isn't starting at 0 dollars in the tier three department as is being portrayed here.

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

How is FSU making 6.6 mil independently for their Tier 3 rights?

ACC office just hit the red-alert panic button. FSU and Clemson just called the Big 12 office.

(05-07-2012 04:46 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  This proves that 50% of Big XII money will exceed what WVU earned in The BEast...

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

He's talking about 8 million for FSU's tier 3 rights alone...

The tier three money figures being thrown around here always include radio yet everyone wants to assume it is for one football game and a few basketball games. The ACC isn't starting at 0 dollars in the tier three department as is being portrayed here.

Yeah, lots of apples and oranges comparisons here. For example, the Pac schools still own their own radio rights. U$C just signed a football radio syndication deal with ESPN.

(05-07-2012 04:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

How is FSU making 6.6 mil independently for their Tier 3 rights?

Tier three is just all the rights not taken in tiers one and two. The ACC gave more rights than are in tier one and two to ESPN. They did not give rights to everything traditionally referred to as tier three.

So you see Kansas saying they made 8 million dollars on their tier three. Well UNC is over 11 million and FSU is over 6 million.

The major difference in our contracts is that the B12 has the rights to their least desirable football game and a couple basketball of their least desirable games. The rights to those do not make 10 million dollars. If they did then the schools would be making 80-100 million per year.

(05-07-2012 04:57 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

How is FSU making 6.6 mil independently for their Tier 3 rights?

Tier three is just all the rights not taken in tiers one and two. The ACC gave more rights than are in tier one and two to ESPN. They did not give rights to everything traditionally referred to as tier three.

So you see Kansas saying they made 8 million dollars on their tier three. Well UNC is over 11 million and FSU is over 6 million.

The major difference in our contracts is that the B12 has the rights to their least desirable football game and a couple basketball of their least desirable games. The rights to those do not make 10 million dollars. If they did then the schools would be making 80-100 million per year.

Oh! Well then I guess that is not nearly as bad as I thought. I really do not know how to price the differences. Certainly there would be some difference but not nearly the drastic difference I was thinking of before you educated me. Before learning of this I was thinking that FSU wouldn't care for a Big 12 network but perhaps they would be if a BTN type model could be conceived.

Last I checked we were making some insanely high numbers with the BTN. Someone please correct me if I am wrong but last I saw I think it was 12.2 mil. The fact that we can make more than UNC is pretty impressive.

Anyways, thanks hokie, you just made the situation a lot more complicated. This makes my head hurt.

An example for the B12

They are getting 200 million dollars for their games. Let's assume for a moment that all of that is football money. They each have 4.5 conf games a year and anywhere from two to four non conference games. So they have between 6 and 8 games per year. We'll say they average 7 for now. Of these 7 games, they are reserving the rights to one of them. That means they are selling the rights to their best 6 of 7 games for an average per game of 3.3 million dollars per year.

I realize there is basketball money and money for a basketball tournament in this too. Just trying to keep it simple.

So if they received the price of an average game for their least desirable game, it would be about 3.3 million dollars that this extra game would be worth.

I think that'd be on the high end. I don't think you'd get average price for the worst home game. Now not all teams are created equal so not all teams would be worth the average amount. Texas and Oklahoma are surely above average. When I see numbers saying that Kansas is bringing in 8 million though it isn't that it is wrong...they are bringing in 8 million for tier three. What they are not doing is bringing in 8 million for that football game and few basketball games. They are selling radio rights and coaches shows and other things in addition to that.

(05-07-2012 03:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Even if 20 mil-ish was the number- the fact that none of the tier 3 rights is huge.

Not really. It'd add a few million? That's not "huge" imo.

(05-07-2012 04:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

How is FSU making 6.6 mil independently for their Tier 3 rights?

They are making that from Radio and web (which I might add is generally just a catch all for other odd revenue streams). The problem is that when people reference Tier 3 rights they are not including the radio and other revenue streams. If that was the case you would be arguing that before the LHN deal for UT they were making less than 350k a year on their radio deal and ad revenue.

So no, the ACC schools do not already have a starting point. The discussion is about Tier 3 TV revenue generation, not other forms of Tier 3 revenue. Because the Big 12 allows the schools to keep their Tier 3 TV rights they have a huge advantage over the ACC.

Tier 3 is a lot more than just 1 football game. For instance, last year, the LHN showed 12 basketball games- including 3 conference games.

The money that you are referencing for North Carolina- that's the radio rights. They would be getting that PLUS the tv tier 3 money.

And- the ACC did give ESPN rights to ALL games period.

(05-07-2012 03:44 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:42 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:39 PM)CommuterBob Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 03:31 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  As of now it seems 16mil-ish is the worst possible outcome, 20mil-ish being the best. It's still a ways away, and anything can happen.

Even if 20 mil-ish was the number- the fact that none of the tier 3 rights is huge.

Also- Big 12 would still be able to offer package with Clemson/FSU- and get up to 25-27 mil.

Clemson and FSU are not worth $50-$60 M/year each. Even at a $2 M/year increase per school, that would make them each worth $30 M. That's much more likely. But $5-$7 M/year is crazy.

If each were worth 30 mil, and title game itself worth 30 mil, that's 90 mil. That's up to 24.17 mil per school per year. If both worth 35 mil- that's 25 mil per year per school.

lol

Let the record show that I take offense to curtis0620 laughing at the idea of FSU being worth $30-35M but understand the larger idea they're laughing at.

(05-07-2012 05:30 PM)laxtonto Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:38 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(05-07-2012 04:26 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  This is a pretty big deal. I am not even going to try and get involved in a debate on how much Clemson and FSU add to this contract. I am not a believer that FSU gets involved with the Big 12 with expansion only to 12 so for me is there a four team combination that is feasible for the current Big 12 members.

I suppose a champsionship game may push some Big 12 games into the regular season but considering how much these big championship games draw, I still think it would be a bonus for the Big 12. If a combination of schools with FSU joins the Big 12 it would be really hard for the renegotiated contract to not rise.

To top it all off, we are comparing the Big 12 contract with the ACC contract as if they are equivalent but they are not. The Big 12 contract does not include Tier 3 programming but the ACC contract does. That the two tier Big 12 contract is worth more then the ACC contract which includes all three tiers is a very important detail. It is reported that Florida makes 10 mil off their individual tier 3 deals. If Florida STate could pull 8 mil from theirs then that is a number that the ACC absolutely cannot compete with. This is dangerous territory.

FSU is already getting 6.6 million so 8 million wouldn't be much of a jump.

How is FSU making 6.6 mil independently for their Tier 3 rights?

They are making that from Radio and web (which I might add is generally just a catch all for other odd revenue streams). The problem is that when people reference Tier 3 rights they are not including the radio and other revenue streams. If that was the case you would be arguing that before the LHN deal for UT they were making less than 350k a year on their radio deal and ad revenue.

So no, the ACC schools do not already have a starting point. The discussion is about Tier 3 TV revenue generation, not other forms of Tier 3 revenue. Because the Big 12 allows the schools to keep their Tier 3 TV rights they have a huge advantage over the ACC.

They are referencing all of these other revenue streams in their tier three though. They are pulling numbers from the non conference revenue streams in the NCAA reports and calling it the tier three deals.

I bet you the LHN and the proposed deal by Oklahoma both include coaches talk shows in addition to their one game. Such talk shows and things are being sold by ACC schools already.

Having rights to one more game is not a 'huge advantage' as you would make it out to be.

(05-07-2012 03:44 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  It can work out the other way just as easily though. Let's say the PAC-10 deal was at the peak college football values. That means you'll be getting less for the same content in 7-8 years than you are now and a longer term is better.

Since either outcome is possible, I think the presidents prefer the safer longer term locked in value. (For the record, I think we are near the peak; I think by the time the Big Ten renegotiates, it's going to wish it had set things up sooner).

You really think television deals won't continue to increase in value? Even if they aren't tripling and quadrupling like they have been, I can't see how they'd ever be worth less.