RE: Assume the AQ goes away...
Some good points. There are a few factors that help the Big East:
1) The Cotton is likely going to become what is essentially the fifth BCS bowl, only that title won't exist any longer, so there will be 10 teams in what are, for all practical purposes, BCS bowls.
2) If the plus-one model is implemented, two additional teams will be unavailable for the big 4-5, so you're really talking 14 teams in the big bowls.
3) I don't know how unhelpful or devious Notre Dame is, but it would make a lot of sense for them to partner with the Big East for two bowls, maybe the Orange and the Gator or Holiday or some other top second-tier bowl. Obviously ND would have an advantage and likely be able to get the slot with a lower ranking, but that would be okay. They've got USC, Michigan, OU, Stanford, Michigan State, and others on upcoming schedules. I would think Florida bowls would love the ND tie-in, and if they don't get them, it's not as if a 10-2 or so USF or UCF or Navy or Rutgers or Boise or Louisville would be like getting stuck with Southern Miss or Northern Illinois.
This is probably close to right:
Rose big ten vs. PAC
Sugar sec vs big ten2
Orange sec2 vs acc
Fiesta bigxii vs PAC2
Only I think the Cotton could take the SEC and Big 12 #2s. Someone will want ND, and, again, if the plus-one is in place, you'll be depriving at least two and possibly all four of those bowls their top choice. You know the SEC will be sending two teams to a plus-one as often as not. So they'd actually be sending their #4 to the Cotton or wherever their #2 goes. I think the conference ought to be able to work something out. I doubt it will be as simple as the Big East champion goes to the Orange Bowl, but my hope is that will be one option, with the second being a strong second-tier bowl like the Gator, Capital One, Holiday, or Outback.
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