You draw your own conclusions

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/cont...d-mwcc-usa

Boise State, obviously, is a huge pivot between the two leagues, giving one or the other a consistent top-10 program and the BCS clout that comes with that. But even if the Big East wasn't able to lure the Broncos eastward, the Big East's proposed new lineup, poaching the other four schools from the merged-league lineup, would be ahead by most statistical measures this season.

If you take Boise out of the equation for now, we'll start with a computer ranking like USA Today's Sagarin ratings -- if the Big East were able to keep its current members and add Houston, SMU, UCF, Navy and Air Force, that lineup (not counting its 12th member) would have six teams in the Sagarin top 45 and 10 in the top 70; the merged MWC-CUSA would have one in the top 45 (Boise) and six in the top 70.

With Boise, the new league could try to make a case for an automatic BCS berth, but so much of the league's membership would be below BCS caliber that it's hard to justify its inclusion because of the weak competition in the conference. The best Sagarin ratings in the new league would be Boise (4), Houston (29), SMU (42), Tulsa (46), Nevada (48), Southern Miss (55), San Diego State (64) and Hawaii (70). After those, it gets ugly, remembering that there are only 120 schools in I-A football: Fresno (94), UTEP (95), Marshall (96), Wyoming (103), Rice (104), ECU (108), Colorado State (121), UNLV (137), Memphis (179), New Mexico (184) and UAB (187).

That's 11 schools at 94 or lower -- all the Big East schools we mentioned would all be ranked higher in the Sagarins. For any reasonable case at a BCS berth, the league would have to see the Big East collapse, which would require some of the current six football schools to land in another BCS league and the remaining schools to be so unattractive that the Conference USA teams would choose the new merge rather than combining with the Big East remnants.

Until the existing Big East schools make a commitment to stay together, there's still much in play, but it's hard to justify a BCS berth for the new league based on how the merged teams have fared against BCS level competition this season. The 22 teams in the new league are a combined 8-33 against teams in BCS conferences (or committed to do so, like TCU) -- take away Boise, Air Force, Houston, SMU and UCF (as the Big East might do) and that record drops to 5-30. The remaining six Big East football schools, by comparison, are a combined 4-6 in nonconference games against BCS opponents.

show this to ECU fans. sounds like ESPN jumped the gun on Boise St, Chris Petersen told the Idaho Statesmen that playing conference games in the EST is "not a big deal". It's a very fluid situation and the conference that has the golden ticket in hand always has the advantage

Yes...The idea that this alliance is going to garner a BCS bid is almost laughable...It is going to be a good thing for the two leagues and I applaud the effort... but it will not get them AQ.

I stopped reading after I got to the words "if the Big East were to keep its current members". The author obviously misunderstands that the reason Boise State (or Air Force or Houston or SMU for that matter) might turn down a Big East invitation has nothing to do with Sagarin ratings.

(10-15-2011 12:19 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  You draw your own conclusions

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/cont...d-mwcc-usa

Boise State, obviously, is a huge pivot between the two leagues, giving one or the other a consistent top-10 program and the BCS clout that comes with that. But even if the Big East wasn't able to lure the Broncos eastward, the Big East's proposed new lineup, poaching the other four schools from the merged-league lineup, would be ahead by most statistical measures this season.

If you take Boise out of the equation for now, we'll start with a computer ranking like USA Today's Sagarin ratings -- if the Big East were able to keep its current members and add Houston, SMU, UCF, Navy and Air Force, that lineup (not counting its 12th member) would have six teams in the Sagarin top 45 and 10 in the top 70; the merged MWC-CUSA would have one in the top 45 (Boise) and six in the top 70.

With Boise, the new league could try to make a case for an automatic BCS berth, but so much of the league's membership would be below BCS caliber that it's hard to justify its inclusion because of the weak competition in the conference. The best Sagarin ratings in the new league would be Boise (4), Houston (29), SMU (42), Tulsa (46), Nevada (48), Southern Miss (55), San Diego State (64) and Hawaii (70). After those, it gets ugly, remembering that there are only 120 schools in I-A football: Fresno (94), UTEP (95), Marshall (96), Wyoming (103), Rice (104), ECU (108), Colorado State (121), UNLV (137), Memphis (179), New Mexico (184) and UAB (187).

That's 11 schools at 94 or lower -- all the Big East schools we mentioned would all be ranked higher in the Sagarins. For any reasonable case at a BCS berth, the league would have to see the Big East collapse, which would require some of the current six football schools to land in another BCS league and the remaining schools to be so unattractive that the Conference USA teams would choose the new merge rather than combining with the Big East remnants.

Until the existing Big East schools make a commitment to stay together, there's still much in play, but it's hard to justify a BCS berth for the new league based on how the merged teams have fared against BCS level competition this season. The 22 teams in the new league are a combined 8-33 against teams in BCS conferences (or committed to do so, like TCU) -- take away Boise, Air Force, Houston, SMU and UCF (as the Big East might do) and that record drops to 5-30. The remaining six Big East football schools, by comparison, are a combined 4-6 in nonconference games against BCS opponents.

You should use the 5 year average in your comparison. For example your Fresno number is low because they have a young team this year and have played a hard schedule. But in the last 5 years they have beaten many of the Big East teams you claim would be so strong.

Your analysis is highly biased.

(10-15-2011 12:31 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I stopped reading after I got to the words "if the Big East were to keep its current members". The author obviously misunderstands that the reason Boise State (or Air Force or Houston or SMU for that matter) might turn down a Big East invitation has nothing to do with Sagarin ratings.

The only thing I see that might stop either of them is not being able to find a home for their Olympic sports. The BE is going to be fine. If either or both decline, the BE will go to plan B and still remain AQ. To think otherwise is to not be objective. Any current AQ conference that rebuilds is going to be given plenty of time to prove itself. The idea that a merger of 2 non AQ leagues is going to take away the BE BCS spot is preposterous.

the 5th week Sagarin ratings for ONE year make this the most unscientific research I've ever read. Try doing an empirical study

This alliance wasn't made for BCS inclusion it was designed to destroy the bigeast. No security blanket for any teams which may leave for the bigeast when all teams in the bigeast want to leave.

I am pretty sure that this new alliance will not garner BCS status. I could say with 100% certainty that it will not if UCF, Houston, SMU and Boise leave. To me it is a waste of time. I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference. Do you think the BCS is going to give up an at large bid to a bunch of misfit toys? I don't think so.

(10-15-2011 01:48 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  I am pretty sure that this new alliance will not garner BCS status. I could say with 100% certainty that it will not if UCF, Houston, SMU and Boise leave. To me it is a waste of time. I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference. Do you think the BCS is going to give up an at large bid to a bunch of misfit toys? I don't think so.

This. To those that have actually paid attention...the game is fixed against the non-AQ's. Existing conferences may bring in new blood...but..there is not going to be a mass entrance of Non-AQ's into the system. Once AQ...always AQ as long as the conference has the sufficient members. I see nothing to make me believe otherwise.

(10-15-2011 01:48 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference.

As opposed to the Big East offering a football-only invitation to a school in Idaho?

(10-15-2011 02:02 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 01:48 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference.

As opposed to the Big East offering a football-only invitation to a school in Idaho?

Well played sir.

(10-15-2011 12:41 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  the 5th week Sagarin ratings for ONE year make this the most unscientific research I've ever read. Try doing an empirical study

I had the same exact thought when I read the article. You need to use a 5 year average, not a 5 game average.

(10-15-2011 02:05 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 02:02 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 01:48 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference.

As opposed to the Big East offering a football-only invitation to a school in Idaho?

Well played sir.

I think it moved

(10-15-2011 12:31 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I stopped reading after I got to the words "if the Big East were to keep its current members". The author obviously misunderstands that the reason Boise State (or Air Force or Houston or SMU for that matter) might turn down a Big East invitation has nothing to do with Sagarin ratings.

This. Everything after that assumption was basically the same as putting together a fantasy football roster every week (I'll take this guy, this guy, and this guy...we'll pretend they're playing for the same team and count up points.).

(10-15-2011 02:02 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 01:48 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  I don't know why people in CUSA are touting this as a great idea. It is hail mary pass that is going to land incomplete. It was the last ditch effort to stop people from leaving either conference.

As opposed to the Big East offering a football-only invitation to a school in Idaho?

Would you joing the Pac 10 for a BCS bid? I would assume yes. Joining the BE is the most rational out of both of these irrational ideas.

(10-15-2011 12:41 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  the 5th week Sagarin ratings for ONE year make this the most unscientific research I've ever read. Try doing an empirical study

Wonder how long it took the OP to come up with this fanstastical theory, only to have you completely obliterate it in 2 short sentences.....

(10-15-2011 03:07 PM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 12:41 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  the 5th week Sagarin ratings for ONE year make this the most unscientific research I've ever read. Try doing an empirical study

Wonder how long it took the OP to come up with this fanstastical theory, only to have you completely obliterate it in 2 short sentences.....

Cap. This article may not be based upon sound research..but..I would submit that the fantastical theory would be one that assumes that the current BCS members would ever allow a mass entrance of 22 teams into it's club. That is just not going to happen. The BE will get extension after extension if necessary in order to keep its AQ status. The BCS makes its own rules. There is NOTHING CUSA/MWC can do about it. The BCS is a rigged game and THEY get to decide who plays.

(10-15-2011 03:29 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 03:07 PM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(10-15-2011 12:41 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  the 5th week Sagarin ratings for ONE year make this the most unscientific research I've ever read. Try doing an empirical study

Wonder how long it took the OP to come up with this fanstastical theory, only to have you completely obliterate it in 2 short sentences.....

Cap. This article may not be based upon sound research..but..I would submit that the fantastical theory would be one that assumes that the current BCS members would ever allow a mass entrance of 22 teams into it's club. That is just not going to happen. The BE will get extension after extension if necessary in order to keep its AQ status. The BCS makes its own rules. There is NOTHING CUSA/MWC can do about it. The BCS is a rigged game and THEY get to decide who plays.

I'm not disagreeing with you - just know 100% that nothing will be decided over Sagarin ratings from the 1st ~5 games of this season....

...although....adding one extra BCS game and offering a bid to this conglomeration's "champion" might be a good deal for the BCS - if for no other reason than it would effectively shut up "the rest" of the relevant non-AQ's from any bitching and moaning over the BCS....

...and let's be honest, the "one" that emerges from the merger is going to be a pretty damn good team each season.....a small piece of the pie for the ~20 or so in the CONFUSA-MWAC may be well worth it for the "greater good" of the country club.....?????

(10-15-2011 02:54 PM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  Would you joing the Pac 10 for a BCS bid? I would assume yes.

Therein lies the flaw in your thinking. Would you jump out of an 8-story window for a million dollars? Everything has a point of diminishing returns.