Getting "too big for our britches" is exactly the problem with expansion talk involving D-1AA teams.
I have a lot of respect for what both App. State and GSU have done in the D-1AA ranks, and I'm sure that if their athletics departments were dedicated to making the move up, they could be successful at the next level.
But that doesn't mean that they add anything to the conference. It's not a knock on them, just a financial reality.
With USA, we'll be at 10 teams and we'll already be skipping an SBC opponent every year. Adding one or two more teams doesn't help us avoid OOC scheduling problems... Because adding those teams won't give us another conference game. Many of the programs can't afford it, because they depend on guarantee games to fund their other athletic programs.
Going to 12 teams adds a conference championship that ultimately does nothing but guarantee that one of our best teams will have an additional loss going into bowl season. We're not going to get a good TV deal for it. We're not going to sell out a stadium if we hold it at a neutral site.
Adding members reduces conference revenues for existing conference members. We'd be surrendering money in the hopes that any expansion candidate would boost revenues elsewhere. And there's only one team that's been mentioned (more on that at the end) that does that.
No casual North Texas alum in the Dallas/Fort Worth area is going to buy a ticket because we're playing Georgia Southern. No ULM fan that isn't coming to games already is going to start because Appalachian State is coming to Monroe every few years.
Whatever either team brings to the table, it doesn't include DOLLARS.
And there's more to this conference than football. GSU basketball is in total meltdown.
Under investigation for NCAA violations, fresh off an 8 win season and a coach resignation. Appalachian State is bringing in a new coach after suffering through a 13 win season, and the Mountaineers haven't seen the NCAA Tournament in 10 years. Neither helps our RPI, neither brings any nationally recognized basketball tradition... Both would bring down our RPI and hurt our chances at multiple bids on an annual basis. We have a very good thing growing in basketball, and any team that hurts that is a serious blow to probably (I'll defer to a more knowledgeable poster like arkstfan) our most profitable sport.
The only team I've seen mentioned here that I'd consider as an expansion candidate is Missouri State. They bring something financially tangible to the table IMMEDIATELY. They bring up our RPI, they have a good reputation with the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and they'd probably help us to a net-positive result in terms of dollars and cents right away. We'd help them by providing a home for top division football, they'd help us by strengthening basketball even further.
The argument that App. State or GSU might look more appealing than current conference members is irrelevant. The members of this conference all owe each other a lot. The reason that we have a Sun Belt that all these outside teams can feel entitled to membership in is because we've stuck together. North Texas turned down an invite to the WAC that would have probably caused the conference to implode (at least, in terms of top division football). Ditto for ULL and ASU- all three schools stayed firm and loyal when the WAC was playing hardball with each individually. If any of the three had gotten cold feet and defected, SBC football doesn't exist today in Divison 1-A. Troy, FAU, and FIU all accelerated their D-1A transitions to help keep the conference viable. All have suffered some growing pains because of that sacrifice.
As much as we may rip on each other, and as much as almost every school's fans would probably love to move up... All of us tend to support each other. Because we've all saved each other. Would I prefer to play against Texas State every year rather than Florida Atlantic, so that I could see more road games and so that North Texas could sell more tickets to visitors? Definitely. But I won't forget that there wouldn't be an SBC if it weren't for Florida Atlantic. And I'd never be in favor of kicking them (or anyone else that's stuck with us through the difficult years) out of the conference in favor of another school.
To the argument that App State or GSU might be a better potential football program than any unspecified current school... All I'll say is that all that potential didn't do jack **** for the Sun Belt back in the early 2000's. But ULM's presence did. Middle Tennessee's presence did. The teams that are here now allowed us to survive to this point, where many of us are thriving.
Appalachian State has a great deal of potential. So does Georgia State. So does Texas State. So does UT-San Antonio. If they do things the right way, they've all got the potential to succeed on this level.
But expansion doesn't offer anything to the conference as it stands today. Replacement is a different story. If we lose a school to C-USA or the WAC or for any other reason... Any of those schools could make a fantastic case to take their place. But spreading the money around further doesn't help anyone in the conference now.