RE: I know I am probably beating a dead horse......
That's the thing, 88. And we're trying to gauge their interest.
Now Fan1, here's the question. I think Belmont is the prize here. It seems most likely that SIU-E would get in, simply because it makes so much sense with divisions and travel partners.
However, what if Belmont demanded Lipscomb go with them? Or, if a conference offered a presumptive strike- such as the Southern (which Belmont would fit in with somewhat academically and such)?
I want you to understand this is TOTAL speculation. But, if Belmont left and it caused the A-Sun to lose it's bid, let us just say it might cause the conference to dissolve.
That leaves a free-for-all for everyone to try and get into whatever conference they could.
However, that might not be as bad as you might think. The Sun Belt and Southern might want to expand into larger markets and improve their basketball RPI with some of the top teams of the A-Sun. The Big South would love to get more teams. There's always the chance the A-10 and/or CAA might want to get involved, but I doubt it.
So, let us say-
OVC grabs Belmont and SIU-E.
When the A-Sun disolves, they pick up Lipscomb as well. It causes havoc at first, but makes sense if and when JSU leaves for a larger conference to play football in 2011.
THe Sun Belt is up first. They'd like to move into bigger markets and improve their RPI.
Kennesaw State makes lots of sense when you look at their enrollment and the fact they are relatively close to Atlanta. They are talking big but aren't real good right now.
Jacksonville is a former member and now plays in what would be one of the conferences top arenas and in a relatively big city. They don't have much enrollment and are private, but if they were to win the A-Sun this year could be perceived as a help for the RPI.
Now there's the Big South. They will have 10 basketball members and would like to bring in more.
I'm going to give them North Florida, USC-Upstate, Stetson, and Gulf Coast. This really improves their profile, helps them in baseball, and gets them into Florida.
Now there's our old friend the Southern Conference. They have 12 members with Samford, but need some more and would love to improve their RPI in hoops so they can become a two-bid league.
And over here is ETSU.
The Southern Conference picks up Mercer, which goes in nicely academically, has new facilities, and gives Georgia Southern an in-state rival.
But the So Con needs another college.
The other 12 members hem and haw. Sure ETSU is a natural fit, but nothing has changed since they left.
They look at other schools they can get. Maybe they'll ask Coastal Carolina to come in, but do they want to go to 10 football members? There's always Campbell over here, but they play in a gym that has 947 seats and won't help out with the RPI at all.
Citadel touts the virtues of VMI rejoining, while the usual suspects of William and Mary, James Madison, and Charlotte are discussed.
"We can't just take ETSU back. They haven't done anything to reverse the trends that made us want to get rid of them in the first place," someone says.
What can ETSU do? The So Con is less than impressed with a failed student vote and a half-built soccer field. Memorial Center is worse than when it was when the Bucs were a member. Nothing seems to have changed.
UNTIL- Realizing he has to play politics, Paul Stanton makes the move that allows him to save face while satisfying the conference members.
He fires David Mullins and replaces him with a REAL athletic director with vision on how to grow the programs.
The SO Con then looks at how their RPI would improve in hoops. Maybe that second bid is plausible after all.
And ETSU goes back to their REAL home!
The sidebar is poor Campbell gets screwed- as they have no place to go and have to play as an independent.
Yeah, a lot has to happen and break just right.
But, to steal a line uttered at one point or another in every sitcom in history-
"It's kinda crazy, but it just might work!"
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